Week 15 vs. Atlanta
Thomas scored for the fourth consecutive week, adding five catches for 54 yards. He has a great matchup this week against an Atlanta defense that has allowed seven TE touchdown catches. Thomas is a solid bet to score for the fifth week in a row. He's really rounding into form, establishing himself as one of the better tight end options in the league once again.
Week 14 vs. Indianapolis
Thomas scored for the third consecutive week, though he had just two catches for 15 yards. At least Blake Bortles is looking his way down by the goal line. The Colts have allowed five tight end scores, all in the past seven weeks. Thomas is a low-end start this week among tight ends given his big-play potential and matchup.
Week 13 at Tennessee
Thomas finally had the kind of game everyone expected of him last week, catching nine passes for 116 yards and a score. Now, he faces a Tennessee defense that has given up eight TE touchdowns this season, including one to him a couple of weeks ago. With Allen Hurns out with a concussion, Thomas could see even more passes this week. He's a nice sleeper tight end start again.
Week 12 vs. San Diego
Thomas continues to see a volume of passes, including eight more targets last week. He turned that into a 5-28-1 line, which isn't great, but the score justified my call of Thomas being a nice sleeper start last week. And San Diego has allowed seven tight end touchdown catches this season, the same number it has given up to opposing wide receivers. Thomas is once again a nice sleeper start at tight end this week.
Week 10 vs. Tennessee
Thomas just isn't getting on the same page with Blake Bortles. He only had two catches for 23 yards last week and has five receptions in the past two weeks on 13 targets. But he could be a nice sleeper play at tight end this week, as the Titans have given up seven tight end TDs this season (three in the past two weeks) and are 27th in the league in terms of points allowed to tight ends.
Week 10 at Baltimore
Thomas saw eight targets last week, which is a solid number. What wasn't solid, however, was the production: three catches for 14 yards. Thomas is more of a bulked up receiver than he is a tight end, so perhaps the fact that Baltimore has been good against opposing tight end this season, allowing just one TD, might not matter so much. But right now, Thomas is running third behind Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns in the pecking order in Jacksonville's offense.
Week 9 at New York Jets
Thomas has basically played in one game this season (at least on a full-time basis), and he had a 7-78-1 line in that game. He's healthy now, but faces a Jets defense that is third in the league against opposing tight ends. There are better, more proven options out there.
Week 7 vs. Buffalo
Thomas showed why the Jaguars gave him a big contract over the offseason, catching seven passes for 78 yards and a score in his second game back from a hand injury. Buffalo, however, ranks sixth in the league in points allowed to tight ends, so the pickings will be a little more difficult this week. Thomas is a big, athletic tight end who is more of a receiver than he is a true tight end. He should produce enough to be a decent start this week.
Week 6 vs. Houston
Thomas saw just two targets in his 2015 debut, but caught them both for 20 yards. The Texans haven't allowed a tight end score since giving up two in Week 1 to Kansas City. But you have to figure the Jags want to feature their new toy a little more moving forward. Thomas could be a nice sleeper tight end play this week.
Fantasy Upside
Thomas takes his talents to Jacksonville this season after catching 12 TD passes in Denver last year. He is a big target for second-year quarterback Blake Bortles and will see plenty of targets in the Jaguars offense.
Fantasy Downside
A hand injury has sidelined Thomas for the entire preseason, robbing him of time to develop chemistry with Bortles. He'll require surgery that will put him out for the first month of the season. This Jaguars offense is also nowhere near as potent as the one he played in with the Broncos.
Bottom line
Thomas has bust written all over him in terms of where he's being drafted - rounds 7 to 9. He's not going to catch 12 TDs again this season and his other numbers - 43 catches for 489 yards - were nothing special. If Thomas puts up similar catch and yardage numbers this season with half the TD production, he is not worth his ADP.
