Week 10 at New Orleans Saints
The Falcons had a bye in Week 9.
Ian Hartitz of RotoWorld projects Julio Jones to be shadowed by Eli Apple with frequent bracket coverage from a safety and Calvin Ridley to be shadowed by Marshon Lattimore. Julio is a reliable start regardless of matchup, but it is worth noting the Saints are 12th against wide receivers, per our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. Also, Matt Ryan could be under a lot of pressure because the Saints are top ten in sack rate and QB hit rate. 4for4’s rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Jones ranked as a mid-range WR1.
Week 8 vs. Seattle Seahawks
UPDATE: The over/under dropped from 53 points to 50.5 points on Saturday, after Ryan was ruled out. The total is still over 50 but the game is less likely to turn into a shootout with Schaub starting over Ryan.
In Week 7, Jones was the half PPR WR20. He finished with six receptions on nine targets for 93 scoreless yards, 27% of the team targets, and 51% of the team air yards.
Jones has two positive factors heading into Week 8. Mohamed Sanu was traded to the Patriots, he was averaging six targets per game, and the matchup against Seattle has the highest over/under (53) of the week. Seattle is eleventh best against wide receivers, per our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. 4for4’s rankings expert John Paulsen has Hill ranked as the half PPR WR6.
Week 7 at Los Angeles Rams
Last week he finished with eight receptions on nine targets for 108 scoreless yards, 25% of the team targets, and 31% of the team air yards.
Jones will look to put up another 100-yard performance against the Rams secondary who lost Aqib Talib to IR and traded Marcus Peters to the Ravens. The Rams acquired Jalen Ramsey but his status against the Falcons has not been determined. Monitor Ramsey’s status closely because he will likely matchup against Julio if Ramsey is cleared to play. The Rams are fifteenth best against wide receivers, per our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. This game has the highest over/under (54.5) of the week. 4for4’s rankings expert John Paulsen has Jones ranked as the half PPR WR1. Julio is a must-start this week.
Week 6 at Arizona Cardinals
Jones has turned in two consecutive poor fantasy performances. In Week 4, he was the half PPR WR37 against the Titans and the half PPR WR54 against the Texans in Week 5. Last week he finished with three receptions on seven targets for 42 scoreless yards, 15% of the team targets, and 27% of the team air yards.
Week 6 is a prime bounce-back spot for Jones in a game that has the potential to turn into a shootout. Also, the Cardinals are still missing two of their starting cornerbacks. Offenses playing against Arizona average the sixth-most plays per game, per Evan Silva and this game has the second-highest over/under (51). The Falcons are passing at the highest rate in the league, 72%. 4for4’s rankings expert John Paulsen has Jones ranked as the half PPR WR2. He is a must-start against a poor Cardinals secondary.
Week 5 at Houston Texans
Julio Jones had a forgettable Week 4 performance against the Titans. He finished with four receptions on seven targets for 52 scoreless yards, 13% of the team targets, and 22% of the team air yards.
Jones will look to bounce back against the Houston Texans who are fourth-worst against wide receivers, per our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. Jones is a high end WR1 as a road underdog (+4) in a game with a high over/under of 50 points.
Week 4 vs. Tennessee Titans
Jones is tied with Hilton for the most touchdowns (4) scored through three weeks. Against the Colts zone heavy defense in Week 3, he finished with eight receptions on nine targets for 128 yards, one touchdown, 26% of the team targets, and 46% of the team air yards. Jones is the Half PPR WR2 with 60 fantasy points. Keenan Allen is the WR1 with 73.2 Half PPR points.
The bad news is the Titans are ranked fifth best against wide receivers, according to our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. 4for4 rankings expert John Paulsen has him ranked as the Half PPR WR2. Despite the difficult matchup, Jones is a must-start across all leagues.
Week 3 at Indianapolis Colts
Mount Saint Julio exploded in Week 2 against a poor Eagles secondary. He finished with five receptions on 10 targets for 106 yards, two touchdowns, 23% of the team targets, and 33% of the team air yards. He tied Odell Beckham as the Half PPR WR2 with 25.1 fantasy points.
In Week 3 against the Colts, 4for4’s rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Jones ranked as the Half PPR WR3. The Colts defense schemes toward playing zone coverage so look for Jones to settle underneath the Cover 3 zone. Jones’ big play potential is hurt by the Cover 3 zone coverage but he is a clear fantasy starter against the Colts.
Week 2 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Like most of the Falcons, Julio had a forgettable Week 1. He finished with six receptions on 11 targets for 31 yards, 24% of the team targets, and 30% of the team air yards. He finished as the Half PPR W32 with 12.1 fantasy points.
Julio is a good bounce-back candidate in Week 2 because the Falcons are implied for 25.25 points at home and will face an Eagles secondary who gave up 380 yards against the Washington Redskins in Week 1. Additionally, the Eagles are ranked 7th worst against wide receivers according to our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. 4for4 rankings expert John Paulsen has Jones ranked as the Half PPR WR1. Jones is a must-start in every league format because Mount Saint Julio volcano could erupt.
Week 1 at Minnesota Vikings
Julio Jones finished the season as the NFL’s top receiver in targets (170), receiving yards (1,677), air yards (2,420), and percent share of team’s air yards, 45.6%. In full PPR settings, Jones was the WR2, behind only DeAndre Hopkins, and the WR3 in half PPR settings, behind Tyreek Hill and Hopkins.
As of Thursday, there are mixed messages around Jones playing in Week 1. Jones said he didn’t know if he will play against the Vikings but also said he planned on playing. These messages are polar opposites but we will plan on Jones playing unless we hear otherwise before Sunday. The matchup will be tough for Jones, as shown by our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric that has the Vikings ranked third best against wide receivers. 4for4’s rankings expert John Paulsen has Jones as the PPR WR6 in Week 1 with a median projection of 17.1 fantasy points. Jones is startable in every league format.
Fantasy Upside
In 2018, Jones went into the Week 8 bye with an average of 116 yards per game but a seemingly impossible total of zero touchdowns. Fantasy football twitter was ablaze with #NeverJulio. However, the hashtag firestorm lost momentum over the Falcons remaining nine games as Jones averaged 96 yards per game and scored a total of eight touchdowns. He finished the season as the NFL’s top receiver in targets (170), receiving yards (1,677), air yards (2,420), and percent share of team’s air yards, 45.6%. In full PPR settings, Jones was the WR2, behind only DeAndre Hopkins, and the WR3 in half PPR settings, behind Tyreek Hill and Hopkins.
Another positive note is Jones will be reuniting with old offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter. Prior to joining the Tampa Bay coaching staff, Koetter was the coordinator with Jones for three straight seasons, 2012-2014. Quarterback, Matt Ryan returns as the starting quarterback and he might have more time to throw the ball in the pocket because the Falcons improved their offensive line. They selected Chris Lindstrom with the 14th overall pick and Kaleb McGary with the 31st pick. Rookie wide receiver breakout, Calvin Ridley, seasoned veteran Mohamed Sanu, and surprising fantasy tight end standout, Austin Hooper all return from last year. As the Buccaneers Offensive Coordinator in 2017, Dirk Koetter used 11 personnel (three wide receivers) on 74% of passing plays so expect to see Jones, as the dominant X receiver, on the opposite side of the field as Ridley, the Z receiver, and Sanu working primarily out of the slot as the Y receiver.
Fantasy Downside
Atlanta passed the ball a lot under former offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian. Last year, the Falcons had the third-highest passing rate, 65%, behind only Green Bay, 68%, and Pittsburgh, 67%. The Falcons were forced to pass at a high rate because their defense was littered with injuries and gave up points like candy on Halloween. CB Ricardo Allen missed 13 games, safety Keanu Neal missed 15 games, and LB Deion Jones missed 10 games. Expect the defense to be healthier this season. This will take pressure off the offense and could result in some negative regression in total passing attempts. A decrease in total passing attempts would mean less opportunity for Jones.
2019 Bottom Line
Jones is a chalky bet to repeat as the NFL leader in receiving yards. He is a safe pick to finish as a top 12 wide receiver and could repeat within the top five.
