Week 2 at Seattle Seahawks
Cam Newton's highly anticipated debut as a Patriot went according to plan with New England rolling out a run-centric scheme that heavily utilizes Newton's ability as a runner. As expected, Newton had limited passing volume with only 19 attempts and 155 yards passing and no scores. He made up for it by running 15 times for 75 yards and two touchdowns. These types of stat lines will be common for Newton, although a Week 2 matchup against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks may demand more passing. The Seattle defense has a lackluster pass rush and Matt Ryan torched the their secondary for 450 yards in Week 1. Newton is an easy QB1 in Week 2 based on a good matchup and the possibility of additional passing volume due to the high-scoring offense on the other sideline.
Week 1 vs. Miami Dolphins
Cam Newton and the New England offense will be one of the more intriguing stories of Week 1 as the world awaits how Bill Belichick will deploy the dual-threat quarterback. Miami is not a particularly troubling matchup, but the Patriots have other issues, specifically a shallow depth chart at the skill positions and an injury-plagued backfield. It's possible the Patriots ask Newton to do more on the ground to make up for missing Damien Harris and Sony Michel having a shaky knee, but it is difficult to predict how Newton will look as a passer without any preseason games. Newton brings QB1 upside anytime he takes the field so he should be started in Week 1, but he carries plenty of risk.
Fantasy Upside
Cam Newton signed a one-year deal with the Patriots in late June, instantly vaulting himself from fantasy afterthought to one of the most interesting projections in the entire league. Which Newton will New England get? The former MVP and dynamic playmaker who carried the Panthers to a Super Bowl appearance in 2015? Or the broken down, erratic quarterback under center for Carolina the last couple of seasons? Only time will tell, but there are reasons to be optimistic about Newton in New England. Newton has historically been an excellent fantasy quarterback outside of recent seasons when he has been hampered by various injuries. Newton’s resume includes five seasons where he finished among the top four fantasy scorers at the position. His mobility, size and nose for the goal line provide him massive rushing and touchdown upside in a good offense. Newton has 58 career rushing touchdowns and has cleared 500 yards rushing in six of eight seasons where he played 14 or more games. His 2019 stats are ugly, but he only played in two games and was clearly limited by a foot injury suffered during the preseason. Newton’s struggles in recent years appear to stem from his injuries rather than regression in his skills under center. Assuming he is healthy and wins the starting job, Newton will have legitimate QB1 upside when paired with Bill Belichick who will surely leave no stone unturned in maximizing his new quarterback’s unique talents.
Fantasy Downside
Newton’s massive upside is accompanied by massive risk. His injury history since 2016 is troubling, particularly for a quarterback who relies on his mobility. Newton has had two surgeries on his throwing shoulder since 2016 and suffered the aforementioned Lisfranc fracture during last year’s preseason. Newton’s passing upside is also limited. The Patriots appear likely to roll out a run-heavy offense and he will have one of the weakest skill groups in the league to throw to. Finally, there is always the possibility that Newton never even wins the starting job. The Patriots made it clear that he was not guaranteed the job and claim to be excited about Jarrett Stidham’s prospects as a starting quarterback. While Newton should beat Stidham out to be the starter, there is a possibility Newton does not even start Week 1.
2020 Bottom Line
A healthy Cam Newton has historically been one of the best quarterbacks in fantasy and he could not ask for a better environment to make a comeback than New England. Newton should win the starting job and could easily finish as a QB1, but he carries as much risk as any quarterback on the board. Newton’s late-round ADP makes him a worthy gamble as a cheap option at the position.
Week 3 at Arizona Cardinals
Cam Newton put up 333 yards against the Buccaneers last week, but he failed to find the end zone and had a costly fumble. Cam also didn’t gain any rushing yards and he doesn’t look right health-wise. He may still be recovering from his shoulder injury and now he has a foot issue. Even if he winds up starting, fantasy owners should look elsewhere if possible, despite a pretty good matchup against the Cardinals. It’s too risky to bank on him until he looks healthy again.
Week 2 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cam Newton had a rough start to the season, throwing for 239 yards, an interception and a fumble in an opening-day loss to the Rams. It was a tight game, however, and one in which the Panthers leaned on the run game and on short passes to the versatile Christian McCaffrey. Expect a similar strategy throughout the rest of the season, although if Cam can take a little better care of the ball, some of those drives should yield better results. He’s still a good fantasy option week-to-week.
Against the Buccaneers in Week 2, Cam should have an easier time. The 49ers offense struggled against them in Week 1, but only the Raiders allowed more points per game last season. While it’s possible they are markedly improved, it’s more likely the 49ers sputtered out of the gate. Cam is a high-upside QB1 option in most weeks, and he should bounce back against a team he threw four touchdowns and 547 yards against over two matchups last year.
Week 1 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Cam Newton is coming off a bit of a down year by his standards. While his 3,395 passing yards and 24 touchdowns are pretty much on par with his usual production, his 488 rushing yards were the second-least of his career, and he had a career-low four rushing touchdowns. Part of that was coaching and scheme, but much of it was a career of hard hits keeping him at less than 100% health for much of the season. He missed two games as well, and he enters the year with questions about his shoulder.
That being said, he’s supposed to be ready to go against the Rams, and he has a great matchup to start the season. The Rams were disappointing on defense last year, ranking in the bottom half of the league in points allowed, and they lost Ndamukong Suh in the offseason. If Cam is healthy, he should be in line for a great game. We have him as a top-five option this week and he should be active in all leagues.
Fantasy Upside
Cam Newton’s best fantasy asset is his ability to make up for bad passing games with rushing production. Last year, he rushed for 488 yards and four touchdowns to go along with 3,395 yards and 24 touchdowns through the air. In his first season under Norv Turner, he completed a career-high 67.9% of his passes and he has arguably the best pass-catching back in the league in Christian McCaffrey to help him out. D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel and McCaffrey create a tremendous array of weapons for Newton and as long as he stays healthy, he should be a consistent fantasy producer.
Fantasy Downside
Newton’s body has been breaking down over the past few seasons due to the number of vicious hits he’s subjected to. He’s had at least 90 carries every season of his eight-year career, and defenders tee off on him. He’s coming off a shoulder surgery and at age 30, he could struggle to take the same punishment he’s used to. He missed two games last season and was banged up all year.
2019 Bottom Line
Newton has some risk associated with him because of his potential for injury, but he’s currently being undervalued. He’s accounted for at least 28 touchdowns in three of his past four seasons and has arguably the best set of weapons he’s ever had. He’s a bargain at his ninth-round ADP and is evidence that the quarterback position continues to be filled with talent in the middle rounds.
Week 15 vs. New Orleans Saints
Cam Newton struggled against a surprisingly stingy Browns defense last week, throwing for 265 yards and a pick, while adding 23 yards on the ground. Newton has largely been productive this season, despite the Panthers being in the middle of a devastating five-game losing streak. His 473 yards and four touchdowns on the ground give him a high floor in most leagues, making him a steady fantasy option.
This week, Newton will face a Saints defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to the quarterback position this season. In a game where both teams could be airing it out, Newton has a chance to put up big numbers. While his turnovers have been concerning, fantasy owners should keep him active this week in a great matchup.
Week 14 at Cleveland Browns
Cam Newton had four interceptions against the Buccaneers last week, but he threw for 300 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He also added 33 yards on the ground. Newton and the Panthers have lost four games in a row, but he’s thrown nine touchdown passes in that time and should still be considered an excellent week-to-week fantasy starter.
This week, Newton faces a Browns defense that has been very average against quarterback this year. He’s been banged up the last couple of weeks, so fantasy owners should monitor his status, but if he’s active, he should be in all lineups. The Browns offense should keep the game interesting and it could be a high-scoring affair.
Week 13 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cam Newton only threw for 256 yards, two touchdowns and a pick last week in a close loss to the Seahawks, but he added 63 yards on the ground on eight rushing attempts, turning in a solid fantasy performance overall. Newton’s had a pretty high floor throughout the season, failing to provide multiple touchdowns only once all season. His 417 yards and four touchdowns on the ground make him a threat to score big numbers in any given week.
Newton should do well against the Buccaneers this week. Panthers handled Tampa Bay four weeks ago, limiting Newton to only 25 pass attempts, but only the Bengals and Falcons have allowed more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season than the Buccaneers. Cam is an every-week starter with exceptional upside in a great matchup. Start him.
