Forecast Accuracy Report

The Importance of Looking Back & Keeping Score...

If you use a Fantasy source that doesn't carefully track and publish
week-to-week and year-to-year results, you could be asking for trouble.
As the old golfing adage goes, "If you're not keeping score, you're only practicing."

We certainly won't get them all. But, our process
provides you with a decision support tool that's measurable, objective and
consistently replicated. The methods are statistically sound and have been
validated on all NFL games going back to the mid-90's. With years of research, experience and results, we've
gained a high degree of confidence in our process.

Below we share a few highlights, present overall results and provide a link to all the actual and
forecast data to allow you to leverage the recap analysis as you see best.

Every week has it's share of upsets. In turn we have a number of
surprises in fantasy as well. On the plus side, we nailed a number of things
including...

1) Larry Fitzgerald 55 receiving yards (actual 57)

2) Matt Ryan 301 passing yards (actual 316)

3) Julio Jones 101 receiving yards (actual 105)

4) Steve L Smith would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 73 yards below average)

5) Robert Woods 39 receiving yards (actual 37)

6) Sammy Watkins 8.7 fantasy points (actual 8.7)

7) Jerricho Cotchery 47 receiving yards (actual 46)

8) Cam Newton projected pass TD 1.8 (actual 2)

9) Jay Cutler 282 passing yards (actual 289)

10) Giovani Bernard 67 rushing yards (actual 62)

11) Jason Witten 5.9 fantasy points (actual 5.9)

12) Dez Bryant 80 receiving yards (actual 85)

13) DeMarco Murray would rush for 100+ yards (actual 136)

14) Peyton Manning would pass for over 300 yards passing yards (actual 479)

15) Demaryius Thomas would have more reception yardage than his average (actual = 179 yards above average)

16) Emmanuel Sanders 10.8 fantasy points (actual 10.9)

17) Julius Thomas 67 receiving yards (actual 66)

18) Jordy Nelson would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 49 yards below average)

19) Eddie Lacy would rush for more yards than his average (actual = 65 yards above average)

20) Hakeem Nicks 27 receiving yards (actual 29)

21) T.Y. Hilton 9.1 fantasy points (actual 9.0)

22) Coby Fleener 3.0 fantasy points (actual 3.0)

23) Allen Robinson 52 receiving yards (actual 51)

24) Allen Hurns 3.9 receptions (actual = 4)

25) Jarius Wright 28 receiving yards (actual 27)

26) Matt Asiata 68 rushing yards (actual 72)

27) Tom Brady 20.5 fantasy points (actual 21.0)

28) Rob Gronkowski would have more reception yardage than his average (actual = 63 yards above average)

29) Drew Brees projected pass TD 2.1 (actual 2)

30) Marques Colston 58 receiving yards (actual 63)

31) Brandin Cooks 57 receiving yards (actual 56)

32) Eli Manning projected pass TD 2.0 (actual 2)

33) Rueben Randle 4.3 receptions (actual = 4)

34) Greg Salas would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 31 yards below average)

35) LeSean McCoy 81 rushing yards (actual 81)

36) Jeremy Maclin 77 receiving yards (actual 76)

37) Riley Cooper 32 receiving yards (actual 33)

38) Nick Foles projected pass TD 1.9 (actual 2)

39) Ben Roethlisberger 278 passing yards (actual 273)

40) Heath Miller 49 receiving yards (actual 46)

41) LeVeon Bell 89 rushing yards (actual 82)

42) Philip Rivers 284 passing yards (actual 288)

43) Malcom Floyd 7.4 fantasy points (actual 7.2)

44) Antonio Gates 4.3 receptions (actual = 4)

45) Doug Baldwin 47 receiving yards (actual 50)

46) Jared Cook 46 receiving yards (actual 44)

47) Brian Quick 4.7 receptions (actual = 5)

48) Vincent Jackson would have more reception yardage than his average (actual = 111 yards above average)

49) DeSean Jackson 4.7 receptions (actual = 5)

50) Niles Paul would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 72 yards below average)

51) Kirk Cousins 19.0 fantasy points (actual 19.7)

Below we track how well our "A-Game", "B-Game" and "C-Game" players did last week.
We also track how we're doing for the entire season. In fact, we've been monitoring our weekly Fantasy Impact Rating accuracy for the past 15 years.

QB Projected Impact Week 5 2014 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 283 2.1 287 2.1 257 1.8
4for4 B-Game 239 1.2 245 1.4 213 1.2
4for4 C-Game 214 1.6 220 1.5 174 0.9
RB Projected Impact Week 5 2014 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 113 0.3 102 0.6 112 0.8
4for4 B-Game 88 0.6 79 0.5 90 0.5
4for4 C-Game 46 0.3 43 0.3 31 0.2
WR Projected Impact Week 5 2014 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 79 0.6 86 0.7 85 0.6
4for4 B-Game 58 0.3 61 0.3 62 0.4
4for4 C-Game 37 0.3 43 0.3 38 0.3

To see a report with all prior week Yardage and TD actuals and predictions, click here.

Filed Under: 2014, w6