Forecast Accuracy Report

The Importance of Looking Back & Keeping Score...

If you use a Fantasy source that doesn't carefully track and publish
week-to-week and year-to-year results, you could be asking for trouble.
As the old golfing adage goes, "If you're not keeping score, you're only practicing."

We certainly won't get them all. But, our process
provides you with a decision support tool that's measurable, objective and
consistently replicated. The methods are statistically sound and have been
validated on all NFL games going back to the mid-90's. With years of research, experience and results, we've
gained a high degree of confidence in our process.

Below we share a few highlights, present overall results and provide a link to all the actual and
forecast data to allow you to leverage the recap analysis as you see best.

Every week has it's share of upsets. In turn we have a number of
surprises in fantasy as well. On the plus side, we nailed a number of things
including...

1) Levine Toilolo 17 receiving yards (actual 17)

2) Robert Woods 47 receiving yards (actual 52)

3) Jonathan Stewart would rush for more yards than his average (actual = 64 yards above average)

4) Cam Newton 21.6 fantasy points (actual 22.3)

5) Matt Forte 42 receiving yards (actual 40)

6) Alshon Jeffery 70 receiving yards (actual 72)

7) Giovani Bernard would rush for fewer yards than his average (actual = 22 yards below average)

8) Taylor Gabriel would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 43 yards below average)

9) Dez Bryant 14.0 fantasy points (actual 13.3)

10) DeMarco Murray would rush for fewer yards than his average (actual = 63 yards below average)

11) Peyton Manning projected pass TD 2.1 (actual 2)

12) Wes Welker 31 receiving yards (actual 30)

13) Emmanuel Sanders 5.8 receptions (actual = 6)

14) Julius Thomas 35 receiving yards (actual 33)

15) Calvin Johnson 97 receiving yards (actual 103)

16) Joique Bell 14.6 fantasy points (actual 14.7)

17) Eddie Lacy 105 total yards (actual 104 yards)

18) Andre Johnson 72 receiving yards (actual 65)

19) Arian Foster 114 total yards (actual 119 yards)

20) Hakeem Nicks would have more reception yardage than his average (actual = 46 yards above average)

21) Allen Hurns 3.4 receptions (actual = 3)

22) Dwayne Bowe 52 receiving yards (actual 57)

23) Travis Kelce 4.3 receptions (actual = 4)

24) Jarius Wright 37 receiving yards (actual 38)

25) Teddy Bridgewater 17.7 fantasy points (actual 17.7)

26) Brandon LaFell 69 receiving yards (actual 64)

27) Rob Gronkowski 5.7 receptions (actual = 6)

28) Drew Brees 326 passing yards (actual 313)

29) Kenny Stills 75 receiving yards (actual 68)

30) Larry Donnell 3.7 receptions (actual = 4)

31) Andre Williams 10.9 fantasy points (actual 11.0)

32) Chris Ivory 56 rushing yards (actual 53)

33) Geno Smith 214 passing yards (actual 210)

34) James Jones 6.2 fantasy points (actual 6.3)

35) Derek Carr 15.8 fantasy points (actual 16.6)

36) LeSean McCoy 84 rushing yards (actual 88)

37) Ben Roethlisberger would pass for fewer yards than his average (actual = 95 yards below average)

38) Antonio Brown 13.7 fantasy points (actual 13.2)

39) Malcom Floyd 4.1 receptions (actual = 4)

40) Anquan Boldin 63 receiving yards (actual 61)

41) Jared Cook 43 receiving yards (actual 41)

42) Delanie Walker 56 receiving yards (actual 54)

43) Kendall Wright 4.4 receptions (actual = 4)

44) Bishop Sankey 43 rushing yards (actual 44)

45) DeSean Jackson 3.7 receptions (actual = 4)

46) Pierre Garcon 4.3 receptions (actual = 4)

47) Alfred Morris 78 rushing yards (actual 83)

Below we track how well our "A-Game", "B-Game" and "C-Game" players did last week.
We also track how we're doing for the entire season. In fact, we've been monitoring our weekly Fantasy Impact Rating accuracy for the past 15 years.

QB Projected Impact Week 16 2014 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 288 1.5 283 2.0 257 1.8
4for4 B-Game 253 1.8 249 1.6 213 1.2
4for4 C-Game 227 1.3 221 1.2 174 0.9
RB Projected Impact Week 16 2014 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 102 1.0 110 0.8 112 0.8
4for4 B-Game 89 0.7 82 0.5 90 0.5
4for4 C-Game 38 0.2 39 0.2 31 0.2
WR Projected Impact Week 16 2014 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 87 0.6 90 0.7 85 0.6
4for4 B-Game 57 0.2 61 0.4 62 0.4
4for4 C-Game 47 0.2 43 0.3 38 0.3

To see a report with all prior week Yardage and TD actuals and predictions, click here.

Filed Under: 2014, w17