Forecast Accuracy Report

The Importance of Looking Back & Keeping Score...

If you use a Fantasy source that doesn't carefully track and publish
week-to-week and year-to-year results, you could be asking for trouble.
As the old golfing adage goes, "If you're not keeping score, you're only practicing."

We certainly won't get them all. But, our process
provides you with a decision support tool that's measurable, objective and
consistently replicated. The methods are statistically sound and have been
validated on all NFL games going back to the mid-90's. With years of research, experience and results, we've
gained a high degree of confidence in our process.

Below we share a few highlights, present overall results and provide a link to all the actual and
forecast data to allow you to leverage the recap analysis as you see best.

Every week has it's share of upsets. In turn we have a number of
surprises in fantasy as well. On the plus side, we nailed a number of things
including...

1) Larry Fitzgerald 65 receiving yards (actual 70)

2) Andre Ellington 43 receiving yards (actual 39)

3) Owen Daniels 5.5 fantasy points (actual 5.3)

4) Steve L Smith 5.2 receptions (actual = 5)

5) Torrey Smith 3.9 receptions (actual = 4)

6) Andy Dalton 232 passing yards (actual 233)

7) Jason Witten 6.5 fantasy points (actual 6.2)

8) DeMarco Murray would rush for fewer yards than his average (actual = 53 yards below average)

9) Peyton Manning projected pass TD 2.2 (actual 2)

10) Demaryius Thomas 12.4 fantasy points (actual 12.7)

11) Julius Thomas 9.7 fantasy points (actual 9.3)

12) Arian Foster 18.0 fantasy points (actual 17.9)

13) Andrew Luck would pass for over 300 yards passing yards (actual 354)

14) T.Y. Hilton would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 37 yards below average)

15) Dwayne Bowe 59 receiving yards (actual 55)

16) Travis Kelce 4.0 receptions (actual = 4)

17) Jarvis Landry 42 receiving yards (actual 46)

18) Greg Jennings 7.4 fantasy points (actual 7.6)

19) Tom Brady 26.2 fantasy points (actual 27.7)

20) Rob Gronkowski projected receiving TDs 0.9 (actual 1)

21) Shane Vereen 39 receiving yards (actual 38)

22) Drew Brees 309 passing yards (actual 297)

23) Eli Manning 22.1 fantasy points (actual 22.2)

24) Larry Donnell 8.3 fantasy points (actual 8.5)

25) Jordan Matthews 43 receiving yards (actual 40)

26) Malcom Floyd 59 receiving yards (actual 60)

27) Marshawn Lynch 72 rushing yards (actual 67)

28) Doug Baldwin 4.9 receptions (actual = 5)

29) Stevie Johnson 4.1 fantasy points (actual 4.1)

30) Michael Crabtree 5.1 receptions (actual = 5)

31) Colin Kaepernick 239 passing yards (actual 237)

32) Vincent Jackson 9.0 fantasy points (actual 8.6)

33) Niles Paul would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 33 yards below average)

Below we track how well our "A-Game", "B-Game" and "C-Game" players did last week.
We also track how we're doing for the entire season. In fact, we've been monitoring our weekly Fantasy Impact Rating accuracy for the past 15 years.

QB Projected Impact Week 9 2014 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 270 2.1 287 2.1 257 1.8
4for4 B-Game 273 1.9 254 1.6 213 1.2
4for4 C-Game 213 1.6 224 1.5 174 0.9
RB Projected Impact Week 9 2014 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 106 1.1 108 0.7 112 0.8
4for4 B-Game 81 0.6 80 0.5 90 0.5
4for4 C-Game 36 0.2 40 0.2 31 0.2
WR Projected Impact Week 9 2014 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 103 1.0 89 0.6 85 0.6
4for4 B-Game 61 0.3 62 0.4 62 0.4
4for4 C-Game 41 0.3 44 0.3 38 0.3

To see a report with all prior week Yardage and TD actuals and predictions, click here.

Filed Under: 2014, w10