Fantasy Upside
Andrew Luck bounced back in a big way in 2018 after an injury wiped out his 2017 season. He threw for 4,593 yards and 39 touchdowns on his way to winning the AP Comeback Player of the Year award. It was Luck’s best season since 2014 statistically, and he completed a career-high 67.3% of his passes in his first year under Frank Reich. Luck should be excellent in his second year in this system. They added talent in second-round rookie speedster Parris Campbell and free-agent acquisition Devin Funchess, and they didn’t lose anyone of significance. The strides made by the offensive line last season should only continue with continuity.
Fantasy Downside
Luck is only a year removed from missing all of 2017 with a shoulder injury and only Ben Roethlisberger attempted more passes last season. Although Luck was sacked only 18 times all year, his volume exposes him to hits and he’ll turn 30 years old in September. While he was healthy last year, he missed nine games in 2015 and another game in 2016 after beginning his career with 48 consecutive starts. Injury risk aside however, there’s really no downside to Luck.
2019 Bottom Line
As long as he stays healthy, there’s no reason to think Luck won’t once again be an elite fantasy quarterback. His fifth-round ADP makes him a great option in all fantasy league formats, and he should be a nice, steady player for owners who like to roster only one quarterback going into the season.
Week 19 at Kanas City Chiefs
Despite being five-point underdogs in Kansas City, Vegas expects a shootout between the Chiefs and the Colts. That has pushed the Colts implied team total in the divisional round up higher than 25 points. Kansas City presents the best match-up among QBs this week too, as Andrew Luck faces a secondary that's just 29th in aFPA to the position. That puts Luck in an attractive position to be a top three QB this week, despite his team being an underdog.
Week 17 at Tennessee Titans
The Colts offensive starters, if healthy, will play a full 60 minutes in Week 17 in what has turned into a play-in game against the Titans. Indianapolis is a 3-point road favorite with an implied team total of 23.25 points. Tennessee ranks 12th in aFPA against QBs, but Luck has never lost to the Titans. He played a flawless game against this defense earlier this season and is a rock-solid QB1 option for Week 17.
Week 16 vs. New York Giants
The Colts host the Giants as more than a touchdown favorite with a top five implied team total of 28.25 points in Week 16. New York ranks 10th in aFPA to QBs this season. Nevertheless, Andrew Luck has been a bench at your own risk fantasy starter this season and should take advantage of a team that has nothing left to play for as Indianapolis chases a playoff berth. Lock him in as a QB1.
Week 15 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Indianapolis has an above average implied team total this week against a tough Dallas defense. That implied total is 25 points. The Cowboys are also outside the top 10 in aFPA to QBs. That's promising. T.Y. Hilton not practicing this week though is very concerning. His status should be monitored before kickoff, as it could lower Luck's Week 15 ceiling. Regardless, Luck's consistent play all year keeps him in the QB1 mix.
Week 14 at Houston Texans
The Colts have a very modest implied team total of 22.75 points this week, with negative game script expected on the road in Houston. The Texans rank 16th in aFPA to QBs. Luck's streak of eight consecutive games with three or more touchdowns was snapped last week with a terrible performance at Jacksonville, but that streak started with a monster game against these Texans. He's still firmly in the QB1 conversation for the fantasy playoffs.
Week 13 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Remember when facing the Jaguars defense was a near death sentence for a player's fantasy prospects? That's not the case anymore. The Jags are just 16th in aFPA to QBs this season, and the Colts have an implied team total of 25.5 on the road. Jacksonville's offense also operates at a faster pace when Leonard Fournette is out, which should mean additional offensive plays for the Colts too. Did we mention Andrew Luck has also thrown three or more touchdown passes in eight consecutive games, and his starting running back, Marlon Mack, is in the concussion protocol? Things are looking up for another QB1 week for Luck, supported by a high volume passing attack.
Week 12 vs. Miami Dolphins
The Colts come off another strong offensive performance against the Titans, and this week, Indianapolis has the highest implied team total on the Sunday slate, nearing 30 expected points. Miami ranks just 18th in aFPA to QBs this season as well. Andrew Luck has at least three touchdown passes in seven consecutive games and has not been sacked in five straight. In fact, he's only been touched three times in his past five games. He will have a different center this week, but he's locked and loaded as an elite fantasy option once again in Week 12.
Week 11 vs. Tennesee Titans
The Colts have a high implied team total of 25 at home against Tennessee, and maybe the best offensive line in the NFL right now, helping protect Andrew Luck enough for him to throw three or more touchdowns in six consecutive games. The Titans are top 10 in aFPA to QBs this season, but having lit up similarly ranked defenses of late, we have little concern Luck will continue to post solid fantasy numbers in Week 11. It hasn't just been the touchdowns either. Luck is averaging 275 passing yards per game, thanks to high volume in attempts. Keep starting him.
Week 10 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Colts have a middle-of-the-road implied team total against the Jaguars this week, and Jacksonville ranks 7th in aFPA to QBs. But Andrew Luck's passing volume has been undeniable, averaging more than 40 attempts per game. Luck hasn't faced Jacksonville since 2016, but he's red hot right now, with three or more touchdowns in five straight games. Given that and Jacksonville's recent defensive struggles, Luck is a QB1 this week.
