Forecast Accuracy Report

The Importance of Looking Back & Keeping Score...

If you use a Fantasy source that doesn't carefully track and publish
week-to-week and year-to-year results, you could be asking for trouble.
As the old golfing adage goes, "If you're not keeping score, you're only practicing."

We certainly won't get them all. But, our process
provides you with a decision support tool that's measurable, objective and
consistently replicated. The methods are statistically sound and have been
validated on all NFL games going back to the mid-90's. With years of research, experience and results, we've
gained a high degree of confidence in our process.

Below we share a few highlights, present overall results and provide a link to all the actual and
forecast data to allow you to leverage the recap analysis as you see best.

Every week has it's share of upsets. In turn we have a number of
surprises in fantasy as well. On the plus side, we nailed a number of things
including...

1) Matt Ryan 298 passing yards (actual 298)

2) Steven Jackson 50 rushing yards (actual 49)

3) Roddy White 67 receiving yards (actual 73)

4) Torrey Smith would have more reception yardage than his average (actual = 25 yards above average)

5) C.J. Spiller 61 rushing yards (actual 60)

6) Kelvin Benjamin 70 receiving yards (actual 76)

7) Matt Forte 17.7 fantasy points (actual 17.1)

8) Jay Cutler projected pass TD 1.8 (actual 2)

9) Alshon Jeffery 11.3 fantasy points (actual 11.1)

10) Tony Romo 267 passing yards (actual 262)

11) DeMarco Murray would rush for 100+ yards (actual 149)

12) Terrance Williams would have more reception yardage than his average (actual = 43 yards above average)

13) Matthew Stafford 299 passing yards (actual 293)

14) Aaron Rodgers 296 passing yards (actual 302)

15) Randall Cobb would have more reception yardage than his average (actual = 71 yards above average)

16) Andre Johnson 78 receiving yards (actual 71)

17) Arian Foster would rush for fewer yards than his average (actual = 115 yards below average)

18) Garrett Graham 29 receiving yards (actual 28)

19) DeAndre Hopkins 66 receiving yards (actual 64)

20) Ahmad Bradshaw 11.4 fantasy points (actual 11.2)

21) Trent Richardson 48 rushing yards (actual 47)

22) Dwayne Allen 3.1 receptions (actual = 3)

23) Allen Robinson 4.8 receptions (actual = 5)

24) Charles Clay 35 receiving yards (actual 32)

25) Matt Asiata would rush for more yards than his average (actual = 43 yards above average)

26) Rob Gronkowski 9.7 fantasy points (actual 9.1)

27) Drew Brees would pass for over 300 yards passing yards (actual 340)

28) Jimmy Graham 12.9 fantasy points (actual 12.6)

29) Kenny Stills 6.2 fantasy points (actual 6.2)

30) Khiry Robinson 10.7 fantasy points (actual 10.5)

31) Brandin Cooks 5.2 receptions (actual = 5)

32) Eli Manning would pass for more yards than his average (actual = 75 yards above average)

33) Rashad Jennings would rush for fewer yards than his average (actual = 40 yards below average)

34) Preston Parker 26 receiving yards (actual 29)

35) Rueben Randle would have more reception yardage than his average (actual = 67 yards above average)

36) Larry Donnell 56 receiving yards (actual 54)

37) Geno Smith 219 passing yards (actual 209)

38) Derek Carr projected pass TD 1.1 (actual 1)

39) Jeremy Maclin would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 42 yards below average)

40) Nick Foles would pass for fewer yards than his average (actual = 131 yards below average)

41) LeVeon Bell 42 receiving yards (actual 46)

42) Markus Wheaton 55 receiving yards (actual 57)

43) Philip Rivers 25.6 fantasy points (actual 27.1)

44) Malcom Floyd would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 35 yards below average)

45) Donald Brown 32 receiving yards (actual 35)

46) Keenan Allen would have more reception yardage than his average (actual = 99 yards above average)

47) Anquan Boldin 56 receiving yards (actual 62)

48) Stevie Johnson would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 42 yards below average)

49) Colin Kaepernick 230 passing yards (actual 218)

50) Vincent Jackson 9.7 fantasy points (actual 9.2)

51) Mike Evans 59 receiving yards (actual 65)

52) Delanie Walker 4.7 receptions (actual = 5)

53) Kendall Wright 4.7 receptions (actual = 5)

54) Niles Paul 61 receiving yards (actual 60)

55) Kirk Cousins 269 passing yards (actual 257)

56) Alfred Morris 92 total yards (actual 90 yards)

Below we track how well our "A-Game", "B-Game" and "C-Game" players did last week.
We also track how we're doing for the entire season. In fact, we've been monitoring our weekly Fantasy Impact Rating accuracy for the past 15 years.

QB Projected Impact Week 4 2014 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 309 2.6 288 2.0 257 1.8
4for4 B-Game 273 2.0 246 1.4 213 1.2
4for4 C-Game 241 1.7 222 1.4 174 0.9
RB Projected Impact Week 4 2014 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 102 0.8 99 0.7 112 0.8
4for4 B-Game 82 1.1 78 0.4 90 0.5
4for4 C-Game 42 0.2 42 0.3 31 0.2
WR Projected Impact Week 4 2014 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 74 1.0 89 0.7 85 0.6
4for4 B-Game 62 0.5 62 0.4 62 0.4
4for4 C-Game 51 0.3 44 0.3 38 0.3

To see a report with all prior week Yardage and TD actuals and predictions, click here.

Filed Under: 2014, w5