Forecast Accuracy Report

The Importance of Looking Back & Keeping Score...

If you use a Fantasy source that doesn't carefully track and publish
week-to-week and year-to-year results, you could be asking for trouble.
As the old golfing adage goes, "If you're not keeping score, you're only practicing."

We certainly won't get them all. But, our process
provides you with a decision support tool that's measurable, objective and
consistently replicated. The methods are statistically sound and have been
validated on all NFL games going back to the mid-90's. With years of research, experience and results, we've
gained a high degree of confidence in our process.

Below we share a few highlights, present overall results and provide a link to all the actual and
forecast data to allow you to leverage the recap analysis as you see best.

Every week has it's share of upsets. In turn we have a number of
surprises in fantasy as well. On the plus side, we nailed a number of things
including...

1) Harry Douglas 38 receiving yards (actual 38)

2) Marlon Brown would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 37 yards below average)

3) C.J. Spiller 66 rushing yards (actual 69)

4) Brandon Marshall would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 33 yards below average)

5) Alshon Jeffery would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 42 yards below average)

6) Giovani Bernard would rush for more yards than his average (actual = 43 yards above average)

7) Jason Witten 3.8 receptions (actual = 4)

8) Peyton Manning would pass for fewer yards than his average (actual = 100 yards below average)

9) Demaryius Thomas 5.3 receptions (actual = 5)

10) Emmanuel Sanders 10.2 fantasy points (actual 10.6)

11) Julius Thomas projected receiving TDs 0.9 (actual 1)

12) Reggie Bush would rush for fewer yards than his average (actual = 46 yards below average)

13) Calvin Johnson 5.9 receptions (actual = 6)

14) Matthew Stafford 286 passing yards (actual 291)

15) Golden Tate 63 receiving yards (actual 57)

16) Andre Johnson 6.0 receptions (actual = 6)

17) Hakeem Nicks would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 68 yards below average)

18) Trent Richardson 7.6 fantasy points (actual 7.5)

19) T.Y. Hilton 64 receiving yards (actual 65)

20) Coby Fleener would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 28 yards below average)

21) Brian Hartline would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 28 yards below average)

22) Mike Wallace 62 receiving yards (actual 56)

23) Lamar Miller 43 rushing yards (actual 46)

24) Cordarrelle Patterson 4.2 receptions (actual = 4)

25) Julian Edelman 5.6 receptions (actual = 6)

26) Brandon LaFell would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 45 yards below average)

27) Tim Wright would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 41 yards below average)

28) Drew Brees projected pass TD 1.8 (actual 2)

29) Victor Cruz 65 receiving yards (actual 60)

30) Rueben Randle 43 receiving yards (actual 39)

31) Eric Decker 67 receiving yards (actual 63)

32) Geno Smith projected pass TD 1.1 (actual 1)

33) Denarius Moore would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 24 yards below average)

34) Brent Celek would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 33 yards below average)

35) LeSean McCoy 16.9 fantasy points (actual 16.2)

36) Zach Ertz 3.7 receptions (actual = 4)

37) Antonio Brown 89 receiving yards (actual 90)

38) Danny Woodhead 27 receiving yards (actual 28)

39) Ryan Mathews would rush for fewer yards than his average (actual = 56 yards below average)

40) Keenan Allen 5.3 receptions (actual = 5)

41) Colin Kaepernick would pass for more yards than his average (actual = 48 yards above average)

42) Jared Cook 45 receiving yards (actual 46)

43) Lance Kendricks 2.4 fantasy points (actual 2.5)

44) Nate Washington would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 60 yards below average)

45) Dexter McCluster 29 rushing yards (actual 30)

46) DeSean Jackson would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 64 yards below average)

47) Alfred Morris 88 rushing yards (actual 85)

Below we track how well our "A-Game", "B-Game" and "C-Game" players did last week.
We also track how we're doing for the entire season. In fact, we've been monitoring our weekly Fantasy Impact Rating accuracy for the past 15 years.

QB Projected Impact Week 2 2014 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 264 1.7 282 1.8 257 1.8
4for4 B-Game 209 1.1 229 1.1 213 1.2
4for4 C-Game 225 1.3 226 1.5 174 0.9
RB Projected Impact Week 2 2014 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 100 0.6 101 0.5 112 0.8
4for4 B-Game 65 0.3 73 0.3 90 0.5
4for4 C-Game 48 0.3 44 0.3 31 0.2
WR Projected Impact Week 2 2014 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 92 0.6 93 0.6 85 0.6
4for4 B-Game 45 0.4 58 0.3 62 0.4
4for4 C-Game 37 0.1 41 0.2 38 0.3

To see a report with all prior week Yardage and TD actuals and predictions, click here.

Filed Under: 2014, w3