Forecast Accuracy Report

The Importance of Looking Back & Keeping Score...

If you use a Fantasy source that doesn't carefully track and publish
week-to-week and year-to-year results, you could be asking for trouble.
As the old golfing adage goes, "If you're not keeping score, you're only practicing."

We certainly won't get them all. But, our process
provides you with a decision support tool that's measurable, objective and
consistently replicated. The methods are statistically sound and have been
validated on all NFL games going back to the mid-90's. With years of research, experience and results, we've
gained a high degree of confidence in our process.

Below we share a few highlights, present overall results and provide a link to all the actual and
forecast data to allow you to leverage the recap analysis as you see best.

Every week has it's share of upsets. In turn we have a number of
surprises in fantasy as well. On the plus side, we nailed a number of things
including...

1) Matt Ryan 22.3 fantasy points (actual 21.1)

2) Joe Flacco 232 passing yards (actual 221)

3) Steve L Smith 4.8 receptions (actual = 5)

4) Kelvin Benjamin 10.6 fantasy points (actual 10.4)

5) Matt Forte 80 rushing yards (actual 78)

6) Jay Cutler projected pass TD 2.0 (actual 2)

7) Alshon Jeffery 82 receiving yards (actual 78)

8) Andrew Hawkins would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 62 yards below average)

9) Taylor Gabriel would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 45 yards below average)

10) Jason Witten 6.7 fantasy points (actual 6.9)

11) Dez Bryant 6.1 receptions (actual = 6)

12) Demaryius Thomas would have a 100 yard receiving game (actual 123)

13) Golden Tate 9.9 fantasy points (actual 10.3)

14) Joique Bell 96 total yards (actual 103 yards)

15) Randall Cobb 11.3 fantasy points (actual 11.1)

16) DeAndre Hopkins 84 receiving yards (actual 77)

17) Reggie Wayne 4.4 receptions (actual = 4)

18) Andrew Luck projected pass TD 2.1 (actual 2)

19) Greg Jennings 46 receiving yards (actual 43)

20) Tom Brady 286 passing yards (actual 287)

21) Brandon LaFell 64 receiving yards (actual 66)

22) Drew Brees 26.6 fantasy points (actual 27.2)

23) Marques Colston 61 receiving yards (actual 65)

24) Kenny Stills 69 receiving yards (actual 67)

25) Eli Manning 22.9 fantasy points (actual 22.0)

26) Mychal Rivera 36 receiving yards (actual 39)

27) Derek Carr 214 passing yards (actual 222)

28) Ben Roethlisberger would pass for over 300 yards passing yards (actual 360)

29) Heath Miller 3.8 receptions (actual = 4)

30) Antonio Brown would have a 100 yard receiving game (actual 123)

31) Antonio Gates 51 receiving yards (actual 54)

32) Marshawn Lynch 15.1 fantasy points (actual 15.8)

33) Colin Kaepernick would fail to reach 200 yards passing yards (actual 141)

34) Kenny Britt 6.3 fantasy points (actual 6.5)

35) Jared Cook 3.1 receptions (actual = 3)

36) Vincent Jackson 75 receiving yards (actual 70)

37) DeSean Jackson 3.3 receptions (actual = 3)

Below we track how well our "A-Game", "B-Game" and "C-Game" players did last week.
We also track how we're doing for the entire season. In fact, we've been monitoring our weekly Fantasy Impact Rating accuracy for the past 15 years.

QB Projected Impact Week 15 2014 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 255 1.5 283 2.0 257 1.8
4for4 B-Game 168 0.4 249 1.6 213 1.2
4for4 C-Game 203 0.6 221 1.2 174 0.9
RB Projected Impact Week 15 2014 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 86 0.6 111 0.8 112 0.8
4for4 B-Game 69 0.4 81 0.5 90 0.5
4for4 C-Game 40 0.2 39 0.2 31 0.2
WR Projected Impact Week 15 2014 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 81 0.6 91 0.7 85 0.6
4for4 B-Game 53 0.2 61 0.4 62 0.4
4for4 C-Game 40 0.1 43 0.3 38 0.3

To see a report with all prior week Yardage and TD actuals and predictions, click here.

Filed Under: 2014, w16