I recently read an ESPN article "Draft Day Manifesto" by Mathew Berry describing "Winning fantasy football one week at a time". with respect to drafting players who's average points per game will help get you to the target of 95 points per game for your team on a weekly basis. Berry's comments about D. Johnson gave me reason to pause when deciding which RB to keep in my $200 cap. std / keeper 10 team league. His article referenced a std league but with a flex player that we do not have. Having the fortune to have both A. Brown and O. Beckham Jr. takes up over 50% of my cap space. I currently have D. Johnson $48 and E. Lacy $35 on my roster and am using the ESPN AV table as of 07/22/2016 . Berry's comments regarding D. Johnson are as follows :
Meanwhile, David Johnson is going fifth among RBs and in the first round on ESPN. Johnson had an amazing rookie season and I think he is a very talented running back, but he has had a total of four -- count 'em, four -- games in his NFL career with double-digit carries. That's it. He performed very well in those games, but it's a very small sample size, and ask anyone who spent an early-round pick on (ahem) Montee Ball, C.J. Anderson or even Jeremy Hill last season. All were high draft picks based, in essence, on having a big half a season and none lived up to their ADP.
So ... could the Cardinals go to a three-man committee with Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington? Or maybe defensive coordinators spent the offseason studying tape of the Seahawks in Week 17 last season when they held David Johnson to 59 toothless yards on 14 touches and figure out a way to bottle him up. DJ also had only 78 total yards (on 21 touches) against Green Bay in the playoffs, averaging just 2.3 yards per carry. In fact, including the playoffs, the Cardinals finished the season with four games versus playoff teams. During that stretch, David Johnson averaged just 3.18 yards per carry. He beat up on a hapless Philly defense that seemed to have given up for the year, but the jury is still out on him against tougher competition. Now, I have Johnson ranked high, so I'm a believer, but I'm also a little nervous. His range of outcomes is very wide, anywhere from a top-three running back to "this year's Zac Stacy."
With last year being an an exception to the two previous season performances, would E. Lacy carry less risk than D. Johnson and have a higher floor but perhaps a lower ceiling than D. Johnson? Is Lacy the safer pick in light of the facts stated by M. Berry?
I think I'd rather take my chances with DJ over Lacy.
Johnson was drafted in the third round and I think that's a spot where you can consider it a valuable pick in the NFL draft, valuable enough that I think he was picked there to eventually have the job - compared to say Rawls who was undrafted. I think that means a little something at least. At some point, every running back doesn't have experience or a ton of carries before taking over a job, so I wouldn't worry about that either. Not saying it's not a good point but I don't think I'd be scared off. No one seems to care Elliot has never had an NFL carry and he's ranked above Lacy and Johnson. Is there reason to be nervous about him compared to other backs with a history of success, sure. And the names mentioned are good examples of what can go wrong. But the Cards are a good team with a ton of weapons and a legit passing game and I think it will be hard to just focus on DJ.
I wouldn't be scared about the three RBs in Arizona. CJ proved to be valuable last year but is up there in age and Ellington is an injury waiting to happen but will probably be used in the passing game mostly anyway. I'm sure CJ gets some carries but that's typical of any NFL team these days.
This is obviously just my view but I like DJ. Team was high on him even last offseason so I think he's the future.
Johnson is an unknown. Lacy is a big fat guy. You already are loaded at receiver so you will still have money to spend. Johnson may be a bust, but he could be great and carry you to the promised land. Although it is a contract year for Lacy, he does not seem inspired. DJ is worth the extra money.
