I am in a 10 team $200 cap std keeper type league and am looking for ideas as to what direction I should go. A recent article by JP suggested that in a PPR league on is better off selecting a WR over a RB with the first pick and even the second pick in a zig zag traditional league draft. JP indicated that he intended to make a similar study of a standard scoring league to see if the same theory applies. I have written you before regarding my player decisions as I anticipate that the AV of A. Brown, OBJ jr, J. Reed, C. Palmer, D. Johnson would be my core players although I most likely will not be able to afford J. Reed. I also have T. Lockett, M. Bryant, E Lacy, T. Hightower, J. Stewart, L. Murray and K. Cousins. Other than Lockett and Cousins are there any of the other roster members worth trying to keep as most will either be too expensive or not the starter next season. Stewart is one who I wonder if he will continue to get the majority of the snaps with C. Artis-Payne in the picture and will probably be over priced anyway. Lacy is going to be over priced based on his potential from the season before last and the belief that he will loose weight and become the former top 5 RB. I am looking at guys like J. Ajayi, J Allen possibly T. J. Yeldon and who ever falls to me at the end of our draft. There are players who will be in the top 10 at RB like D. Marin and D. Freeman, and L. Bell that will suck up some serious cap room on three of my opponents rosters. Injured players who will be back are guys like K. Benjamin, A. Luck, A. Foster J. Charles That will also take up some serious cap room for at least two of them. Then there are the free agents like M. Forte and L. Miller that depending on where they land will also have some interest. I plan to let the bidding frenzy take up most of the salary cap for most of the team owners like I did last year and land a few great value players to fill up my roster spots. I have recently spoken to an owner who has G. Barnidge and J. Graham about a trade of Reed for Barnidge. He seemed receptive as he seems to share my opinion that Graham is not going to be productive like he was in N. Orleans and for the money Reed would probably be a better value. He did make a comment that in the last 5 years I am the first owner in our league who had won the championship that did not have a top 5 -7 RB on their roster. D. Johnson and J. Reed we pivotal down the home stretch so perhaps those two helped me qualify in lieu of the top 5-7 RB on my roster. I anticipate that JP will find a similar correlation regarding having a top 5 WR instead of a top 5 RB in std scoring leagues as well. I am currently subscribing to his theorem even without the results of his study as I have two top 5 WR on my roster (#1 A. Brown, #5 ODB jr. ??) Lots of QB depth so not worried about Palmer's production and if I can get Barnidge I just need a solid RB opposite D. Johnson and I feel I am set. Any thoughts ??
I actually like Reed a lot and think Barnidge will be a bit overvalued. Reed's biggest issue is his health, but he's borderline elite when he's on the field and showed a pretty impressive rapport with Cousins. If it's a cost thing, I get it, but I do think that Barnidge is a downgrade.
Ajayi is such a wildcard. I love the idea of gambling on him, but we don't know what the offseason has in store for Miami yet. If you can keep him at low cost, then it might be worth it. Allen I would say the same thing about, but he has a little less clear path to a starting role since Miller seems likely to move on and Forsett will likely be back.
I'm okay letting go of Stewart. I'm curious what Carolina will do this offseason at the RB position. I might try to keep Murray, but not over any of your others, and he probably will cost a fair amount. I think Antonio and OBJ are your core guys. I agree with you completely there. Then David Johnson, then Reed, then Palmer the way I see it.
I tend to agree with you on Lacy. I think he'll bounce back, but I also think he'll be too expensive for you to keep. I like the WR strategy, as the league seems to be moving in that direction and Brown and OBJ are legit.
