Streaming Tight Ends: Week 8 Targets
For those new to tight end streaming, the idea is to identify a waiver wire tight end with a favorable matchup who is likely to post TE1-caliber fantasy points. The foundation for the matchup research is 4for4’s Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) metric. As the season progresses and more data becomes available, aFPA gets more and more reliable. Volume and efficiency metrics are also considered when searching the waivers for tight end streamers.
Week 7 saw Ladarius Green post top-5 PPR tight end numbers, while 4for4 tight end streamers had a collectively respectable week. After seven games, tight end streaming picks are averaging 9.1 PPR fantasy points per game, while optimal selections are scoring 13.8 fantasy points per game, a weekly average that translates to the TE9 on the season (minimum three games).
Streaming candidates must be available in at least 40 percent of Yahoo leagues, in order to ensure the picks are readily-available in most leagues. As always, be sure to consider 4for4’s weekly rankings in case a highly-ranked player is still available in your league.
Here are the tight end streaming picks for Week 8:
Ben Watson (NO) vs New York Giants
If we consider the lack of a true number one wide receiver in New Orleans, it shouldn’t have been a surprise that Ben Watson had a breakout game two weeks ago against Atlanta. Since Week 3, Ben Watson has played at least 80 percent of the Saints offensive snaps in every game and has played a total of 88 percent of all offensive snaps over that span (twice as many as Josh Hill and more than any Saints pass catcher).
Despite being on the field more than any New Orleans receiver over the past month, Watson is owned in just 41 percent of Yahoo leagues and faces a Giants defense that has been putrid against tight ends. New York currently ranks 31st in tight end aFPA, giving up 18.7 schedule adjusted PPR fantasy points per game. In a game with an over/under just under 50 and a spread of 3.5, scoring opportunities should be abundant.
Larry Donnell (NYG) @ New Orleans
Moving to the other side of the ball in the same game, everyone’s favorite streamer, Larry Donnell, is again in play as a Week 8 fill in. Donnell has seen less than five targets in a game only once this year, and that was in the first week of the season. 23 percent of Donnell’s targets have come in the red zone, and his nine targets inside the 20 trail only Rob Gronkowski among tight ends.
As mentioned with Watson, this is expected to be a high scoring game, and the Saints are just as bad as the Giants against tight ends, allowing 18.6 schedule adjusted PPR fantasy points to the position (ranked 30th in aFPA). Larry Donnell is available in 54 percent of Yahoo leagues.
Crockett Gillmore (BAL) vs. San Diego
For owners in deeper leagues, Crockett Gillmore makes an intriguing streaming option against a Chargers defense that ranks 21st in aFPA to tight ends and is traveling to the East Coast for an early game. This season, San Diego has given up 13.5 schedule adjusted PPR fantasy points per game to tight ends.
With Maxx Williams injured, Gillmore has played at least 80 percent of Baltimore’s offensive snaps in consecutive games and has seen at least six targets in each of those games. This is one of just two games with an over/under of 50 or more and Baltimore’s implied point total of 26.5 is one of the highest of the week. When they do get scoring opportunities, the Ravens have opted to throw. Only three teams have more red zone passing attempts than the Ravens (38), which bodes well for Gillmore who is owned in just 11 percent of Yahoo leagues.