FanDuel Week 13 Values & Top Plays

FanDuel Week 13 Values & Top Plays

By Chris Raybon (Senior Daily Fantasy Expert), last updated Nov 28, 2014

Chris Raybon's picture

Chris Raybon is the Senior Daily Fantasy Editor at 4for4 Fantasy Football.

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisRaybon.

How Do QBs Perform Relative to Their Salary on FanDuel?

Last week, I took a look at how WRs perform relative to their salary on FanDuel. This week, I’ll do the same for QBs. 

Note: Data does not include Week 12 games.

Fanduel QB Salary & Value Report, 2014 Weeks 1-11

Salary

#

Avg Val

Median Val

Under 0.5x

.5x-1x

1-1.5x

1.5-2x

2x-2.5x

2.5x-3x

3x+

Cash (2x)

10k+

14

2.4

2.25

0%

0%

0%

7%

57%

21%

14%

93%

9.5-9.9k

15

2.46

2.59

0%

0%

13%

20%

7%

27%

33%

67%

9-9.4k

19

2.23

2.17

0%

5%

5%

21%

37%

11%

21%

68%

8.5-8.9k

28

1.95

1.85

4%

4%

32%

18%

18%

14%

11%

43%

8-8.4k

50

2.16

2.18

2%

4%

14%

18%

20%

22%

16%

58%

7.5-7.9k

52

2.23

2.09

2%

6%

12%

25%

21%

19%

15%

56%

7-7.4k

36

2.16

2.15

3%

6%

17%

17%

28%

14%

17%

58%

6.5-6.9k

46

2.24

2.22

2%

4%

11%

11%

41%

17%

13%

72%

6-6.4k

30

2.25

2.52

7%

7%

7%

10%

17%

30%

23%

70%

5.5-5.9k

18

2.93

2.93

0%

11%

6%

11%

11%

11%

50%

72%

5-5.4k

14

2.33

2.66

14%

0%

7%

7%

0%

50%

21%

71%

The data suggests that the most value can be found at QB by paying up, or punting the position. The expected return dips a bit in the middle tier. Below is a graphic representation of that, with the likelihood of hitting 2x value plotted against salary.

 

WR Cash Games.jpg

Because QB is the highest scoring fantasy position and QBs don’t share their workload, just about any starting QB at or close to minimum price makes for a good investment. The nature of the QB position is such that extremely cheap QBs can hit cash game value even with a relatively poor fantasy performance.

Here’s the scoring breakdown by salary tier.

 

Fanduel QB Salary and Fantasy Points Report, 2014 Weeks 1-11

Salary

#

Avg Score

Median Score

0-10

10-15

15-20

20-25

25-30

30+

20+

10k+

14

24.23

22.95

0%

0%

7%

57%

21%

14%

93%

9.5-9.9k

15

23.91

25.6

0%

13%

20%

13%

27%

27%

67%

9-9.4k

19

20.4

19.88

5%

11%

37%

16%

26%

5%

47%

8.5-8.9k

28

16.77

15.76

14%

32%

25%

18%

4%

7%

29%

8-8.4k

50

17.68

17.87

14%

20%

28%

22%

10%

6%

38%

7.5-7.9k

52

17.25

16.02

15%

25%

31%

19%

4%

6%

29%

7-7.4k

36

15.5

15.64

17%

28%

31%

14%

8%

3%

25%

6.5-6.9k

46

15

14.74

17%

37%

33%

9%

2%

2%

13%

6-6.4k

30

14

15.12

23%

23%

40%

13%

0%

0%

13%

5.5-5.9k

18

15.6

17.08

28%

11%

39%

17%

6%

0%

22%

5-5.4k

14

12.07

14.01

29%

43%

29%

0%

0%

0%

0%

The numbers reinforce the general consensus view that paying up for a QB is the safest way to lock a high score in your lineup. QBs priced $9,000 and higher tend to score 20-plus points at least half of the time.

Editor's Note: You can get a free year of 4for4 by opening a new account and depositing at DraftKings, DraftDay or FanDuel. Details here.

 

Top Plays & Values

QB Ben Roethlisberger vs. NO $8,300

This week, Big Ben is the most likely medium priced QB to return stud production. Since offensive coordinator Todd Haley’s arrival in 2012, Roethlisberger has fared much better at home. His TD-interception ratio is 2.2-0.55 at home compared to 1.6-0.85 on the road, and he averages a half yard more per attempt (7.56 to 7.07) at home.

Steelers-Saints has the second-highest over/under total of the week at a healthy 54, a line which sharps bet up from it’s opening of 52. Also working in Ben’s favor: a study by Tristan Cockcroft found that QBs perform 17.8 percent better than usual coming off a bye at home.

 

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. TEN $5,000

Fitzpatrick is simply a priced-based punt play as the Ryan Mallett news came after FanDuel set their salaries. He makes sense at his price tag because his season average is 14.7 points per game; he could essentially give you two-thirds of his mean production and still hit cash game value.

 

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Filed Under: w13, 2014

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