Thinking Inside the Box: Week 9

Thinking Inside the Box: Week 9

By John Paulsen (Senior Editor), last updated Nov 3, 2014

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John was named the Most Accurate Fantasy Football Expert by FantasyPros for the 2010 and 2014 seasons, finished as runner-up in 2011 and 4th in both 2012 and 2015 for a total of five Top 5 seasons in the last six years. Cumulatively, John was the most accurate expert from 2010-15 while also winning the 2011 Fantasy Sports Trade Association award for the most accurate draft rankings. 

Follow John on Twitter: @4for4_John.

Every Monday, Senior Editor John Paulsen takes to Twitter (@4for4_John) for Thinking Inside the Box, where he tweets different stats and tidbits from Sunday's box scores. We compile it here for subscribers.


Mr. @TonyGrossi said just prior to kickoff that Terrance West may get the most carries for the Browns. West carried 15 times for 48 yards.

West also caught a 2-yard pass TD for his only catch of the game. Ben Tate saw 14 touches for 32 yards, but averaged just 0.3 YPC.

Browns running game is really struggling since Alex Mack was lost for the season. Browns have a good schedule though. 

Taylor Gabriel 5-87-1 (6) was a Sneaky Start with Jordan Cameron sidelined. He caught a long one after Hoyer extended the play.

Probably too early to say Terrance West is the RB1 there, but it certainly looks like it’s trending that way.

Mike Evans is averaging 10.0 FP on 7.6 T/G while Vincent Jackson is averaging 7.0 FP on 9.6 T/G.

Bobby Rainey’s numbers were good (121 total yards on 20 touches), but Charles Sims was inactive. He will change the dynamic there.

Was expecting more than 183 yards and a TD from Brandon Weeden given the weapons there and a solid matchup. Looked totally out of sync.

ARI held DeMarco Murray under 100 yards for the first time this season. He had 23 touches for 90 yards.

Marion Grice (5 carries, 12 yards, TD) is the backup to Andre Ellington with Stepfan Taylor out.

Eight targets for John Carlson (2-19-1) and just five for Michael Floyd (4-36) in Bizarro World.

Carson Palmer is averaging 19.6 FP in 5 starts. Those are top 5/6-type numbers. STL next week, then a tough stretch: 

Mark Sanchez is a good add for QB-deficient teams. 202 yards, 2 TD & 2 INT in three quarters of play. We’ll see what he can do with talent.

PHI O-line is getting healthier and LeSean McCoy’s numbers are going up. Averaging 108 rush yards in the last four weeks. TDs will come.

No, I don’t think Jeremy Maclin will keep up the 90-1580-16 pace that he’s on, but that doesn’t mean you should trade him away.

.@JasonLaCanfora says that Arian Foster’s injury is “not too serious” but beat writer @taniaganguli senses “some pessimism.” MRI pending.

Zach Ertz set a season low in snap % (28%) and was only targeted twice.

Similar to TB — DeAndre Hopkins is averaging 10.3 FP on 7.1 T/G while Andre Johnson is averaging 6.9 FP on 9.1 T/G.

DeAndre Hopkins has seen 31 targets in the last three games, so he’s now getting a workload to maintain his production.

So it looks like the Jets are going to use Percy Harvin. His snap % (84%) was a season-high, by far. 11-129 (13)

For some reason, the Jets decided to give Chris Johnson more work, and he responded. 13 touches for 101 yards. I just cut him, of course.

Travis Kelce had his lowest snap % (51%) since Week 2, but still posted 4-67-1 (5). #FreeKelce

Denard Robinson is on a run. Averaging 116 total yards and .7 TD on 20.0 touches per game. #8 RB over last three weeks.

Jaguars played a lot of 3 WR sets this week, allowing Allen Hurns to make plays. He posted 7-112-2 (9) and led team in targets.

If Gio Bernard sits on Thursday, Jeremy Hill should have another good game vs. CLE’s shaky rush defense.

Fantasy community seemed down on Mohamed Sanu with A.J. Green back, but WR2 in CIN is typically a solid play. 4-95-1 (8)

Remember, Marvin Jones was the #21 WR in 2013 playing < 50% of the snaps. Sanu can do damage in complementary role. And he runs and throws.

Philip Rivers scored -0.18 FP this week. Not what his owners were looking for.

Charles Clay seems to be coming on. Two 11.8+ FP games in his last three outings. He was the #7 TE last year.

Jarvis Landry 5-46-1 (6) played more than 70% of the snaps for the second time this season. He has 11-121-2 in those two games.

FWIW, Daniel Thomas played ahead of Damien Williams after Lamar Miller left the game, but Williams carried a lot late in the game.

You can’t stop Matt Asiata, you can only hope to contain him. He has three 3-TD games in his career. Has 0 rush TDs in the other 33 games.

Jerick McKinnon with a respectable 68 yards on 17 touches, but he’s getting pulled at the goal line. Boo.

Cordarrelle Patterson’s frustrating season continues. Just when it looks like he’s turning the corner, he drops a 1-9 turd on the doorstep.

DeSean Jackson is the #7 WR in fantasy, and he appears to be QB-proof. Pierre Garcon sitting at #32.

Jordan Reed with just one target, which is strange since he played pretty well with RG3 last year.

Alfred Morris caught two passes for 17 yards in Week 9, which brings his career reception total to 26 in three seasons.

It was a satisfactory return for RG3 in a tough matchup. TB, IND, STL, NYG and PHI among his matchups down the stretch.

Said last night that I thought the 49ers got jobbed on the Crabtree catch and the Kaepernick sneak, and I was rooting for the Rams.

Anquan Boldin 6-93-1 is the #29 WR on the year, while Crabtree is sitting at #44. Boldin now has 27-375-3 in his last four games vs. STL.

Jeff Fisher said that the Rams may “settle into something” regarding RB touches this week, and it appears that it will be Tre Mason.

Tre Mason carried 19 times for 65 yards while Benny Cunningham saw four carries and three catches. Zac Stacy did not play a single snap.

I downgraded Peyton Manning too much due to wind concerns, but he was poor last year in similar conditions. 438 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT

Only two targets for Julius Thomas. Was out-targeted by Tamme, Welker and C.J. Anderson. He played 98% of the snaps.

After a couple of quiet games, Julian Edelman rewarded owners who stuck with him. 9-89-1 (10)

Rob Gronkowski continues to do Gronk-like things. 9-105-1 (10) … He now has 49 targets in his last 5 games.

Jonas Gray is the new Stevan Ridley. Should be startable in good matchups. DEN isn't. Should be serviceable down the stretch

After an epic performance against the Rams in Week 7, Russell Wilson has been fairly brutal the last two weeks. 378 total pass yards & 1 TD.

The worrisome thing is that Wilson’s poor performances came in two nice matchups vs CAR and OAK, both in the 20s in QB aFPA.

So Derek Carr manages 194 yards and two TDs, but Andre Holmes and James Jones combine for 46 yards and zero TDs. TE Rivera with 8-38-2 (11).

Martavis Bryant is the #5 WR in the last three weeks: 10-167-5 (17).

Antonio Brown has caught 5+ passes and/or a TD in 30 straight games dating back to 2012. #PPRGold

Ben Roethlisberger has 12 TDs and 862 yards in his last two games. Jets, Titans and Saints up next!

Torrey Smith was the #62 WR through the first five weeks. He is the #15 WR over the last four. 4-63-1 (7) vs. PIT.

Steve Smith has cooled off, but don’t forget about that debatable OPI TD in W8. Stretch schedule is good and still seeing lots of targets.

The Ravens stuck with Lorenzo Taliaferro ahead of Bernard Pierce after his fumble. Seems to be locked in as Ravens’ RB2.

This concludes Thinking Inside the Box for Week 9. Thank you for reading.

Filed Under: w10, 2014

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