Week 14 DraftDay Optimal Plays

Week 14 DraftDay Optimal Plays

By Jonathan Bales (Daily Fantasy Expert), last updated Sep 12, 2016

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Jonathan Bales is a DraftKings Pro and the author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series. His latest book, How to Win at Daily Fantasy Sports, is a data-driven guide to winning on DraftKings. He is also (unofficially) sponsored by GrubHub.

Follow Jonathan on Twitter: @BalesFootball.

Because daily fantasy football is still relatively new, optimal game strategies are still very fluid. The way you go about playing on a particular site must be flexible, and one factor that can drastically alter your approach is player pricing.

On the individual level, pricing is obviously vital when calculating value. But on the positional level, it is also important whenever you’re deciding who to start in a flex position. You don’t have to worry about that on some daily fantasy sites, but you do on DraftDay.

Actually, the flex spot is the primary place where advanced owners can obtain an advantage over novices. There are different ways you can approach the flex position, some more optimal than others, so that can create a wide range of strategies.

In past years and even earlier this season, most PPR sites like DraftDay priced their wide receivers too low relative to their running backs. Because of that, it didn’t make any sense to play a running back in the flex in almost every situation. Although their play is more predictable than wide receivers on a week-to-week basis, the value wasn’t there.

But if you look at the DraftDay Value Report today, you’ll see there’s not too much of a difference on a $/point basis between running back and wide receiver. The latter position might still offer a little more value, but it’s close.

And because of that, I think you can start to consider running backs in the flex, but only in certain situations. Namely, it can be done at times in head-to-head and 50/50 leagues. In those leagues, you need to maximize your floor, so paying for running backs and their relatively consistent production can be smart.

In tournaments, though, I still think you need to go wide receiver. Their play is more volatile week to week, which is a good thing in large-field leagues, and they have way more upside than running backs in full PPR leagues.


DraftDay Optimal Values

QB Andy Dalton vs. IND $12500

Dalton is coming off of two really poor games, so his price is down. As the 24th most expensive quarterback, he’s priced as a very low-end QB2. He’s better than that, and he’s got a quality matchup this week as well. Jump on Dalton and stack up elsewhere.


RB LeVeon Bell vs. MIA $12450

If you’re playing head-to-head games on DraftDay, you might want to consider Bell either in a starting running back slot or even in the flex. At his 4for4 projection of 17.2 points, only two wide receivers (Vincent Jackson and DeSean Jackson) offer a better combination of points and value. With Bell’s consistency, he makes for a reliable source of points. It looks like he’ll be good to go on Sunday, but monitor his status.


WR Vincent Jackson vs. BUF $11200

Jackson is shockingly just the 25th-priciest wide receiver on DraftDay, behind T.Y. Hilton, Cecil Shorts, and Mike Wallace. I have no idea why that’s the case, but he’s such a great value that you need to consider not if you’ll put him in your lineups, but how much exposure you can have to him.


TE Rob Housler vs. STL $6850

DraftDay is a site that prices the top two elite tight ends far ahead of everyone else. Both Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham are at least $4500 more than every other player at the position.

Housler is a talented player who has seen his targets increase to an average of 6.3 over the past month. He should give you enough to justify the small price tag, but he’s only an option if you like a bunch of elite players at other positions. Since their pricing is loose, there isn’t too much room for multiple bargain bin players.


DraftDay Optimal Lineups

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Filed Under: w14, 2013

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