PPR Winners & Losers by Position

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By John Paulsen (Senior Editor) on January 4, 2013

John was named the Most Accurate Fantasy Football Expert by FantasyPros for the 2010 season, finished as runner-up in 2011 and 4th in 2012 for an unprecedented three straight top 5 finishes. Cumulatively, John was the most accurate expert from 2010-13 while also winning the 2011 Fantasy Sports Trade Association award for the most accurate preseason rankings.  Follow John on Twitter: @4for4_John.

One of the first rules of fantasy football is know your scoring system. If your league uses a point-per-reception (PPR) system, every RB, WR and TE is affected. The impact will be negligible for most players, but it's good to use PPR-specific rankings to identify those players who have increased (or decreased) value in that format.

To quantify the impact, we will look at the players most affected by PPR scoring.

 

RB PPR Winners

In the table below you'll find several running backs who get a boost in PPR formats. We're mainly concerned with RBs ranked in the top 40 in PPR formats.

Name Team Att RuYd TD Rec ReYd TD Std Rnk PPR Rnk Rnk Diff Ratio
Darren Sproles NO 64.5 350 2.4 93.0 771 7.2 167.3 21 260.3 10 11 1.56
Danny Woodhead SD 70.4 272 1.2 47.1 359 1.3 75.8 44 122.9 37 7 1.62
Shane Vereen NE 125.9 512 6.1 46.9 419 1.8 138.3 31 185.3 24 7 1.34
Reggie Bush DET 171.1 739 4.1 71.3 540 3.0 165.3 22 236.6 16 6 1.43
Pierre Thomas NO 122.6 590 3.6 46.7 399 0.9 123.5 35 170.2 29 6 1.38
Jacquizz Rodgers ATL 86.4 359 0.7 40.9 325 1.6 79.9 43 120.8 38 5 1.51
Darren McFadden OAK 262.0 1145 5.3 53.6 386 1.4 186.5 18 240.1 14 4 1.29
Daryl Richardson STL 202.9 830 4.2 31.9 258 0.9 135.2 34 167.2 31 3 1.24
LeSean McCoy PHI 256.5 1110 7.3 57.8 478 2.1 208.1 10 265.9 8 2 1.28
Ray Rice BAL 278.1 1189 9.7 61.1 468 1.0 223.7 6 284.8 4 2 1.27

 

The "Ratio" refers to the player's PPR projection divided by his standard scoring projection. A player with a high ratio gets a big boost in PPR formats, but that doesn't always mean his ranking will change since that depends on the projections for the players around him.

Darren Sproles is well-known for his pass-catching ability. Sproles has ranked 11th and 8th in PPR per game scoring in the last two seasons, so provided he stays healthy, he should be a fringe RB1 in that format. His ADP in PPR leagues (4.02, #18 RB) indicates he's a screaming value in the 3rd round, though I wouldn't have any problem taking him in the 2nd. That ADP is a bit depressed since he missed three games last season (and still led all RBs in receptions).

Reggie Bush also figures to see an increase in his receptions in 2013 as he assumes a role more like the one he had with the Saints a few years ago. He finished in the top 10 in PPR PPG from 2006 to 2008 and actually finished #12 among RB in 2007 in total fantasy points scored even though he missed four games that season. He certainly has RB1 upside in PPR formats if he can stay healthy.

Shane Vereen also figures to get a boost in PPR formats as the primary pass-catching RB in New England with Danny Woodhead now with the Chargers. But keep in mind that Woodhead finished just one spot higher in PPR formats (#24) than he did in standard formats (#25) in 2012, so Vereen figures to have plenty of value in both formats due to the potency of the Patriots' offense (and the number of TDs divided among their RBs).

 

RB PPR Losers

On the flip side, here are a few RBs whose value in PPR is significantly lower than it is in standard formats. (Now we're considering players ranked in the top 40 in standard formats.)

 

Name Team Att RuYd TD Rec ReYd TD Std Rnk PPR Rnk Rnk Diff Ratio
Stevan Ridley NE 279.8 1225 12.0 5.9 47 0.4 197.1 13 203.0 20 -7 1.03
DeAngelo Williams CAR 102.9 506 3.6 11.9 120 0.6 85.0 39 96.9 45 -6 1.14
Willis McGahee DEN 139.3 620 4.2 10.4 72 0.4 94.4 38 104.8 44 -6 1.11
Rashard Mendenhall ARI 211.5 808 5.8 23.0 229 0.9 138.9 29 161.9 34 -5 1.17
Vick Ballard IND 237.6 937 5.3 20.5 177 1.3 145.6 27 166.2 32 -5 1.14
Chris Ivory NYJ 272.9 1199 7.2 14.6 101 0.5 170.3 20 184.9 25 -5 1.09
Marshawn Lynch SEA 268.0 1273 10.8 24.8 220 1.1 215.3 9 240.1 13 -4 1.12
Alfred Morris WAS 284.8 1428 11.8 18.9 137 0.3 223.0 7 241.8 11 -4 1.08
Andre Brown NYG 137.5 639 9.2 26.9 202 0.4 138.8 30 165.7 33 -3 1.19
Mikel Leshoure DET 136.5 504 5.5 12.6 123 0.7 97.4 37 110.0 40 -3 1.13

 

The Patriots tend to compartmentalize their RB duties, and Stevan Ridley is their main ballcarrier. He's also not very involved in the passing game as evidenced by the six receptions (on 14 targets) he saw in 2012. Look for Shane Vereen and Leon Washington to catch most of the passes out of the backfield for the Patriots.

Alfred Morris did start to catch a few passes late in the season -- he had seven catches in his last four games -- but that was more out of necessity than it was a concrete plan to get him the ball through the air. We currently have him projected for 18.9 receptions, which is an increase from the 11 balls he caught last season, but still not enough to keep his value constant in PPR formats. If Roy Helu is healthy, Morris may not see much work on third downs.

Chris Ivory has caught three passes in 24 career games, so the Saints didn't use him much in the passing game during his tenure in New Orleans. He did score on a 76-yard swing pass in preseason of his rookie year so he has some pass-catching ability. If Mike Goodson is still with the Jets after his arrest, he figures to see most of the third down work, but if he's gone, it could certainly mean more targets for Ivory.

 

WR PPR Winners

Moving on to the receiver position. We're looking at players ranked in the top 60 in PPR formats:

 

Name Team Att RuYd TD Rec ReYd TD Std Rnk PPR Rnk Rnk Diff Ratio
Reggie Wayne IND 1.7 7 0.1 102.7 1325 5.0 161.8 19 264.5 8 11 1.63
Wes Welker DEN 0.0 0 0.0 95.7 1158 7.9 161.5 20 257.2 11 9 1.59
Danny Amendola NE 0.0 0 0.0 93.9 1071 6.1 142.1 31 235.9 22 9 1.66
Tavon Austin STL 18.5 102 0.0 76.7 953 4.6 130.9 41 207.5 36 5 1.59
Kendall Wright TEN 0.0 0 0.0 64.8 732 4.1 96.1 55 160.8 50 5 1.67
Nate Burleson DET 5.6 34 0.0 67.2 662 3.9 91.6 57 158.7 52 5 1.73
Dwayne Bowe KC 0.0 0 0.0 78.6 1226 6.7 160.9 21 239.5 17 4 1.49
Steve Johnson BUF 1.8 11 0.1 82.1 1102 5.6 143.4 29 225.5 26 3 1.57
Antonio Brown PIT 0.0 0 0.0 77.9 1151 7.6 159.3 23 237.2 21 2 1.49
Greg Jennings MIN 0.0 0 0.0 79.7 1073 6.3 143.2 30 222.9 28 2 1.56

 

There are some familiar names at the top of this table, specifically Reggie Wayne, Wes Welker, and his replacement in New England, Danny Amendola. These players get a boost of about a round or two in PPR formats.

Amendola's replacement, rookie Tavon Austin, should see plenty of targets playing out of the slot in St. Louis. Kendall Wright led all Tennessee receivers in targets as a rookie, and he should continue to be heavily involved especially after the team lost Jared Cook to free agency.

Steve Johnson and Antonio Brown are good example of high volume receivers who have struggled to find the endzone with any regularity. That gives them a small boost in PPR formats.

 

WR PPR Losers

Name Team Att RuYd TD Rec ReYd TD Std Rnk PPR Rnk Rnk Diff Ratio
Jordy Nelson GB 0.0 0.0 0.0 68.5 1015 11.1 167.061 12 235.6 23 -11 1.41
Sidney Rice SEA 0.0 0.0 0.0 38.7 695 6.2 105.926 49 144.6 56 -7 1.36
James Jones GB 0.0 0.0 0.0 66.7 832 11.5 151.227 25 217.9 31 -6 1.44
Cecil Shorts JAX 0.0 0.0 0.0 64.4 1051 6.0 139.819 33 204.3 39 -6 1.46
Victor Cruz NYG 1.5 8.6 0.1 73.9 1211 7.2 164.32 15 238.2 20 -5 1.45
Michael Crabtree SF 0.0 0.0 0.0 80.0 1193 8.3 167.431 11 247.4 15 -4 1.48
Pierre Garcon WAS 0.0 0.0 0.0 70.1 1092 7.0 149.977 26 220.1 30 -4 1.47
Torrey Smith BAL 4.1 15.6 0.1 69.3 1131 7.7 160.202 22 229.5 25 -3 1.43
Anquan Boldin SF 0.0 0.0 0.0 51.5 885 5.2 118.4 44 169.9 47 -3 1.44
Brandon LaFell CAR 3.2 33.7 0.0 50.7 800 4.4 108.902 48 159.6 51 -3 1.47

 

On this end of the spectrum we have receivers who don't see as many targets as some of their peers, but they tend to gain a lot of yardage and/or find the endzone frequently. Jordy Nelson and James Jones are going to have a tough time cracking the 70-reception mark given all the weapons in Green Bay, but they both have a good shot at catching 10+ TDs.

Torrey Smith is Baltimore's primary deep threat, which means he doesn't catch many short passes (and that negatively impacts his value in PPR). This could change if Smith starts to get some of the short/medium stuff that was Anquan Boldin's bread and butter while in Baltimore. Cecil Shorts fills a similar role in Jacksonville.

 

Bottom Line

Owners who play in PPR leagues should be aware of how the format impacts players they're targeting. Most players won't see a significant jump (or fall) in ADP regardless of format, and this can create value for certain players (like Sproles, Bush, Wayne, Welker and Amendola).

For those wondering about tight ends, the only "big" mover is Brandon Pettigrew, who jumped from 12th to 9th in PPR formats.

 

Filed Under: Preseason, 2013