2024 NFL Futures Bets: Player Props, Win Totals & More
Football never sleeps. The offseason quickly turned into free agency, which then turned into the draft. We are through the early parts of the offseason but now have a chance to look at team and player futures bets. We have been profitable in futures bets every year since we started, and in my opinion, is much softer than in-season props.
I understand not wanting to tie up too much money for the entire season but if you have the bankroll for it, it’s worth the squeeze. Last offseason I wrote about how season-long player props have gone under over 60% each of the past two seasons and i’ll be diving into how that fared in 2023 in the coming month.
A lot of the natural under hit rate has to do with the natural amount of outs an under provides compared to overs. A player can go under their total if they miss games due to an injury, they aren’t as efficient as originally projected due to a variety of factors, or another key player’s injury/lack of effectiveness drags down the offense as a whole. This is factored into the market more each season, but there are still edges periodically. Our first play of the offseason is unsurprisingly an under.
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2024 NFL Futures Bets
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Xavier Legette (CAR) under 700.5 receiving yards (-115 DK, -110 MGM, 650.5 at CZRS is fine)
Legette is a non-traditional late breakout who transitioned from QB to WR early in his college career. He didn't clear 160 receiving yards until his final season (redshirt senior). According to Matt Harmon's reception perception, which tracks a player's ability to get open, he struggled. He was just in the 19th percentile against man coverage, generally a big indicator of success at the NFL level. His late-breakout profile is brutal when we find comparisons there.
One-Year Wonders / Late Breakouts
Here's all Day 1-2 WRs in the PFF College-Era with >60 YPG in final season and <35 YPG prior to that pic.twitter.com/HjEqCFMeDd— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) March 7, 2024
He tested extremely well at the NFL Scouting Combine, and the Panthers seem to be enamored with his athleticism as they traded up for him late in the first round. Yet even if Legette winds up being a good player (I have my doubts), he finds himself in a bad situation. The Panthers brought in Dave Canales who has mentioned repeatedly the Panthers need to run the ball a ton. When talking about Legette, most of it was how the Panthers want to get the ball in his hands on jet sweeps and plays close to the line of scrimmage. That generally doesn't result in a lot of yards. Canales is also tasked with reviving Bryce Young after a miserable rookie season. On top of the questionable schematics, he has reasonable target competition. The Panthers retained Adam Thielen and brought in Diontae Johnson, meaning Legette will likely be the third option in a low-volume, inefficient passing game.
I thought this number would come in around 550 and would play it down to 600. Our projection guru, John Paulsen, told me we will have him projected closer to 350. The floor here is really low for Legette and there is a very narrow path to a ceiling outcome.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit (Played on ⅝ by Connor Allen and Ryan Noonan)
