Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA)

As of Sunday, April 24, 2016

Don't settle for pure fantasy points allowed. Welcome to the next step in matchup evaluation.

Below you'll find adjusted fantasy points allowed by position with schedule bias removed. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an "apples-to-apples" manner.

If a defense has a particularly easy or difficult schedule at a given position, their fantasy points allowed are adjusted as that schedule bias is removed. This paints a more accurate picture for fantasy owners. By Week 4, we have a pretty good sample size to work from, but the data gets even more trustworthy as the season wears on. Once we hit Week 12, we'll start using rolling 10-week data so the numbers stay relevant.

4for4 recommends that fantasy owners use this data to evaluate tough roster decisions. So, all else being equal, if Player A plays a defense that gives up a lot of adjusted fantasy points and Player B plays a defense that is stingy, fantasy owners should start Player A.

The OFF and OFF-PPR columns indicate average fantasy points allowed to all offensive positions combined. The DEF column indicates average fantasy points allowed to fantasy defenses. Through NFL Week 3, some teams will be upgraded or downgraded based on offseason acquisitions and losses. After Week 3, current season data will be used. Early season data can be somewhat unreliable, because of the small data set. Rankings will smooth out and present a clearer picture as we get further into the season.

aFPA Strength of Schedule rankings can be found here.

 

Note: The table is sortable by position. Just click position link in the header.

Team#QB#RB#RB-PPR#WR#WR-PPR#TE#TE-PP#K#OFF#OFF-PPR#DEF
ARI915.8615.7720.3920.0731.2177.81913.2136.7865.9687.125.8
ATL614.62822.03129.5217.3228.9258.72514.166.21168.81793.2208.2
BAL2518.41416.61121.42625.52738.445.7410.2258.01974.32196.5167.7
BUF1316.22018.01321.62424.02537.696.7710.886.21771.11492.4136.9
CAR815.8815.91922.61221.01734.686.5811.125.6664.7889.766.3
CHI3020.11917.61722.31322.01032.6157.81712.8197.22374.62095.0187.8
CIN213.91617.22223.7819.81132.7117.22313.996.4564.51090.545.9
CLE3120.12318.61822.42926.22638.3147.71111.6288.32981.026100.73212.0
DAL314.12620.52625.9518.8429.514.517.9237.8765.6485.2218.6
DEN414.11817.22023.0318.6631.2167.81412.646.0463.7586.8279.5
DET2819.01717.21221.52524.42838.72910.02914.7187.22777.727101.0157.1
GB1116.11016.2920.41522.31434.3207.91512.656.11068.6789.496.7
HOU514.21516.71421.7418.7530.166.3510.535.9261.7282.3249.0
IND1816.42519.52324.22323.92235.8238.72614.1278.22576.62398.7228.7
JAX2217.22419.02424.81020.0831.3279.22714.3329.02274.52296.73011.2
KC2117.1313.8217.83228.83143.535.339.514.71469.71592.686.4
MIA2418.13224.63029.42826.12939.276.4610.7116.53081.629103.7238.7
MIN1416.3515.2619.91422.11534.3218.02013.4157.0968.51190.8106.7
NE1216.1916.01622.21622.61834.8197.81212.2106.51268.91391.735.8
NO3223.73123.32929.32725.82437.33212.13218.1207.33292.232115.615.6
NYG2618.52118.42123.22223.32336.93111.33117.5318.92880.330105.0116.8
NYJ714.8213.2318.22022.81634.524.728.6177.2362.6383.2147.0
OAK1516.31216.31521.8719.2931.8289.72814.6298.61670.01693.0177.8
PHI2919.62721.22726.53026.63040.6106.91011.5227.83182.031106.1289.8
PIT2317.8413.9418.73128.43243.5187.81813.1126.52174.42599.656.0
SD1616.42922.82827.9618.8329.2248.72113.5247.82074.41894.7259.2
SEA113.6111.5117.3117.2128.4269.12414.176.2157.5179.576.3
SF2017.03023.33230.01822.72035.0127.31312.4167.12677.328101.43111.9
LA1916.52218.62525.61121.02135.5228.12213.7268.21872.32499.4269.2
TB1716.4715.8820.41722.71934.856.1911.2308.71369.71291.4198.1
TEN2718.61116.3519.81922.71233.43010.03015.3217.62475.31994.72910.8
WAS1015.91316.51021.32123.21333.5137.51612.7146.71569.8990.1126.9

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