The Underrated Fantasy Impact of Kenny Britt to the Browns

Apr 18, 2017

A wide receiver going from the Rams to the Browns is probably one of the most unsexy transactions in pro sports. But for someone who signed the fifth-largest free agent contract (4 years, $32 million ¹) among wide receivers and finished 26th and 28th in standard and PPR points, respectively, at his position last season, Britt’s signing has garnered almost no attention in fantasy football circles.

But it should have.

Kenny Britt Has Been Better Than Terrelle Pryor

While Britt signed with the Browns for what was reportedly the same yearly average they offered Terrelle Pryor (roughly $8 million), Britt, who is only nine months older than Pryor, has been much more efficient over his three-year Rams career than Pryor was in his one-year stint as a full-time wide receiver with the Browns:

Kenny Britt Career w/ Rams
Season	Tar	Rec	Yds	Yds/Tar	TD	TD %	Std FP/Tar	PPR FP/Tar
2016	111	68	1002	9.03	5	4.50%	1.15	1.77
2015	72	36	681	9.46	3	4.17%	1.20	1.70
2014	84	48	748	8.90	3	3.57%	1.12	1.69
3-Year Total with Rams	267	152	2431	9.10	11	4.12%	1.16	1.72

Terrelle Pryor as WR w/ Browns
Season	Tar	Rec	Yds	Yds/Tar	TD	TD %	Std FP/Tar	PPR FP/Tar
2016	141	77	1007	7.14	4	2.84%	0.95	1.50

Britt averaged nearly two full yards per target more than Pryor, which naturally translated into roughly 0.20 more fantasy points per target. And according to PlayerProfiler.com's metrics, despite both receivers averaging a similar amount of air yards per reception (Pryor 10.6, Britt 10.2), Britt bested Pryor by 2 whole yards in yards after catch per reception, 4.46–2.45.

More impressively, Britt accomplished these feats with largely inferior quarterback play to what Pryor had in 2016:

Team QB Play, Terrelle Pryor (2016) vs. Kenny Britt (2014–2016)
Team & Season	Comp %	Att/G	Y/A	Y/G	TD%	Rating
Browns 2016	59.6	35.4	6.5	230.8	2.6%	77.4
Rams 2016	58.2	33.5	6.2	207.1	2.6%	69.5
Rams 2015	57.7	29.6	6.2	183.2	2.3%	74.1
Rams 2014	63.5	32.2	7.2	230.9	3.9%	84.9

After performing at around league average in 2014, Rams quarterbacks over the last two seasons have been dismal, yet Britt actually increased his efficiency.

Perhaps more importantly, Britt has shown he can be an efficient producer regardless of quality of quarterback play—his range of outcomes in terms of yards per target (8.90–9.46), standard points per target (1.12–1.20), and PPR points per target (1.69–1.77) was remarkably consistent over his three-year career with the Rams.

Britt’s ability to be a consistent producer amidst poor quarterback play is obviously paramount in Cleveland. While Cody Kessler’s numbers—65.6% completion rate, 7.1 yards/attempt, 3.1 percent touchdown rate, 92.3 passer rating—were actually better than the Browns’ numbers overall last season, and his rating was over 7 points higher than the Rams’ team high over Britt’s career, it can’t be assumed Kessler will make all, or even any, of the Browns’ 2017 starts. However, it’s unlikely Britt’s quarterbacks will be any worse than in 2016, his most productive season to date—only the 2016 Jets have posted a lower quarterback rating as a team over the last three years than the 2016 Rams.

More than Enough Targets Should be Available

So we know what to reasonably expect from Britt even if he continues to suffer through bottom-barrel quarterback play, which means his fantasy value comes down to opportunity.

Pryor’s role translated into 141 targets last season, or 8.81 per game. However, a more realistic projection may be to look at Pryor’s role when first-round pick Corey Coleman—the presumed starter opposite Britt—played. Pryor managed 8.2 targets per game with Coleman active, which would translate to 131 targets over a 16-game season.

Kenny Britt 2017 Projection Using 2014–2016 Efficiency Rates
Proj Tar	Std FP/Tar	Std FP Proj	Would-Be 2016 Finish	PPR FP/Tar	PPR FP Proj	Would-Be 2016 Finish
141	1.16	163.6	WR10	1.72	242.5	WR12
131	1.16	152.0	WR11	1.72	225.3	WR16

Assuming Britt inherits Pryor’s role and performs as he has in the past, and assuming the Browns have similar passing volume to last season, Britt would have low-end WR1 upside. This would return massive value on his current ADP of WR46 in FantasyFootballCalculator.com standard leagues and WR53 in MyFantasyLeague.com best-ball leagues. Even if we factor in the possibility of a drop in efficiency, Britt's targets could easily rise beyond last season's career-high of 111, so it remains clear he has substantial upside relative to his ADP.

Of course, Coleman is a first-round pick in his second year, which is generally when wide receivers make a leap (fantasy drafters think as much, as Coleman is going 7 picks before Britt in standard and 20 picks before him in best-ball). The Browns could also add another pass-catching weapon—TE O.J Howard, perhaps—in the early rounds of the draft. So how many targets would Britt need to merely meet value at his ADP? (Update: Cleveland ended up drafting tight end David Njoku in the first round.)

Targets Necessary for Kenny Britt to Meet Value at Current ADP
Scoring	Current ADP	2014-16 Avg FP	Britt 3-Year FP/Tar	Targets Needed	Targets Needed/G
STD	WR46	100.5	1.16	86.6	5.4
PPR	WR53	141.1	1.72	82.0	5.1

Britt wouldn't need much more than five targets per game to meet value at his current ADP. It’s reasonable to assume that regardless of what’s going on around Britt, the Browns' investment of $8 million per year and $17 million in total guarantees signals an intent to get him over five targets per game.

Britt's target outlook is also bolstered by the fact that he's shown the ability to stay on the field. Since a torn ACL in 2011, Britt has missed only seven games in five seasons, including just one missed game over the past three seasons.

In fact, when you combine Britt's superior efficiency to Pryor—on both a per-target and after-the-catch basis—with Britt's durability over the last half-decade, you start to see why an analytics-driven Browns front office was comfortable pivoting to Britt rather than increasing its offer to Pryor.

Kenny Britt is Undervalued in Fantasy Football

No matter what you think about how good Corey Coleman can become, or how bad you think the Browns quarterback situation is, Kenny Britt is undervalued—perhaps massively so.

In a best-case scenario, Britt could emerge as a top-15 fantasy wide receiver. Even with a conservative projection, Britt still projects to meet expectation at his current ADP. And as long as Britt’s ADP remains in the same general range as it is now, he may end up being the most unsexy wide receiver value pick of 2017.

Footnotes

1. The Browns have an out after 2 years, $17 million.

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