Week 17 vs. Carolina Panthers
Tom Brady was OK last week, finishing with 281 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. After being so careful with the ball for most of the season (he nearly broke the NFL record for pass attempts without an INT), Brady has suddenly become a turnover machine with an interception in five of his last six games, including eight total turnovers in his last three games. This week, Brady faces a Panthers defense he struggled against earlier in the year. While Brady threw for 291 yards, he also had no touchdowns in the game as the Bucs as a team only managed three points. We'd expect a better performance this week, though, as the Panthers are a favorable matchup (26th aFPA). Plus, there's a lot on the line as Brady and the Bucs can clinch the NFC South title this week. He's not the strongest option, but Brady fits right in that QB10-QB15 range for Week 17.
Week 16 at Arizona Cardinals
Tom Brady almost had one of his best games of the season last week, finishing with 312 yards and three touchdowns. It's just his fourth 300-yard performance of the season, and only his second time throwing for three touchdowns. Unfortunately, a lot of that production was derailed because Brady threw two interceptions and lost two fumbles. Brady has a chance to turn things around this week as he draws a favorable matchup against the Cardinals (27th aFPA). He also gets the benefit of playing at Arizona in a potential dome environment as many other games this weekend have scary weather conditions. It hasn't been Brady's best season, but he's averaging 44.5 pass attempts per game against a defense that's allowed the second-most total touchdown passes to quarterbacks this season. If there was a week to start Brady, it'd be this one. He should be viewed as a top 10 option at QB for Week 16.
Week 15 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Tom Brady struggled last week, finishing with 253 pass yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. The only positive takeaway is that he threw the ball 55 times which now gives him 109 pass attempts in his last two games. In fact, Brady is on pace for 757 pass attempts which would set an NFL single season record. Unfortunately though, those pass attempts haven't meant much as Brady has a career-low 2.9 TD% this season. This week, Brady gets a fairly tough matchup against the Bengals who have given up the 7th-fewest average fantasy points to quarterbacks. Expect another average game from Brady, which should place him right around the QB10 range for Week 15.
Week 14 at San Francisco 49ers
Tom Brady took nearly the entire game last week to put up some production, but all that matters in fantasy is the end result. Brady finished with 281 yards, two touchdowns and an interception on 54 pass attempts. Not only did Brady score both of his touchdowns in the 4th quarter, but he scored them both in the final three minutes of game time. After a tough start to the season, Brady is starting to find some success with three straight games with multiple touchdowns. Before those games, Brady had just one game with multiple touchdowns all season. It hasn't been a great year for Brady who has career lows or near career lows in several categories. He could struggle again this week in a tough matchup against the 49ers who have given up the fifth-fewest average fantasy points to QBs. Given Brady's struggles and the tough matchup, we have him more in the QB15 range for Week 14.
Week 13 vs. New Orleans Saints
Tom Brady had a solid outing last week, finishing with 246 yards and two touchdowns. He now has back-to-back games with multiple touchdowns after having just one such performance through his first nine games. This week Brady faces a Saints defense that he struggled against earlier in the year. In Week 2, Brady had a season-low 190 pass yards vs. the Saints with just one touchdown. But the Bucs were without Chris Godwin and Julio Jones in that matchup, and Mike Evans got himself ejected midway through. Now, Brady has his weapons back and on paper it's a good matchup (19th aFPA). Brady should be viewed in the QB10-QB15 range this week.
Week 12 at Cleveland Browns
Tom Brady had a decent outing in Week 10 as he threw for 258 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. It was only Brady's second multi-touchdown game this season, which is interesting considering he had 29 pass attempts, his second fewest in a game this season (he averages 42.7). The Bucs took a run-heavy approach in that game, rushing the ball 38 times, which could be a sign of things to come following the team's bye week. We'll see what happens in Week 12 as Brady faces the Browns (11th aFPA). Given his averages so far this season, Brady should be viewed in the QB10-QB15 range for Week 12.
Week 10 vs. Seattle Seahawks in Germany
Tom Brady threw the ball 58 last week, but only managed to finish with 280 yards and a touchdown. In nine games this season, Brady has only finished with multiple touchdowns once. His TD% (percentage of touchdowns thrown when attempting a pass) is at a career low 2.5% (his previous low was 3.9%). He's still managed a decent 283.0 yards per game, although it is down from last year's 312.7 mark. Brady gets a decent matchup this week against the Seahawks (21st aFPA) where he should still be viewed around QB10 in the rankings. Brady hasn't been dominant, but he's still consistently getting yards and usually scores one touchdown while minimizing mistakes (only one INT all season).
Week 9 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Tom Brady kept up his weird trend of throwing for a lot of yards without throwing for many touchdowns last week. This time he finished with 325 yards with one score, a garbage touchdown in the final minute. Brady has just one game this season with multiple touchdown passes, but he's still averaging 283.4 passing yards, which is 6th-most in the league. Brady is also avoiding mistakes as he's thrown just one interception all season, all the way back in Week 1. Brady's struggles could continue this week as he draws a tough matchup against the Rams. L.A. has given up just eight passing touchdowns to quarterbacks through seven games. But Brady's ceiling remains high, and with six teams on bye, he still remains a top option in Week 9. He should be viewed as a top 10 quarterback this week.
Week 8 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Tom Brady finished with 290 yards last week, but he failed to score a touchdown. It's just the fourth time Brady hasn't thrown for a touchdown with the Bucs since joining the team in 2020. He nearly had a huge touchdown to start the game, but it was uncharacteristically dropped by Mike Evans. After that, Brady and the Bucs offense just struggled to finish drives. It's been a struggle for Brady this season as he has just one game this year with multiple touchdowns. He should bounce back this week in a favorable matchup against the Ravens who are 8th in aFPA to QBs. Despite his struggles, Brady still has a high ceiling, and the favorable matchup makes him someone worth playing. He should be viewed as a borderline QB1 play this week.
Week 7 at Carolina Panthers
Tom Brady had an OK outing last week, finishing with 243 yards and a touchdown. Although it was a bit of a letdown performance considering the favorable matchup and the fact he had his wide receivers healthy for once. Brady hasn't been his dominant self this season as he has just one game with multiple touchdowns through his six starts. He's also averaging nearly 40 yards less per game compared to a season ago. His TD% (touchdowns per pass attempt) is at a career-low 3.2, which is saying something for someone in their 23rd season. Still, Brady has an incredibly high ceiling and he gets a decent matchup in Week 7 against the Panthers. He should still be viewed as a lower-end QB1 play.
