Fantasy Upside
Derrius Guice is on IR, which means Kelley should get a decent amount of early-down work in this offense. He saw double-digit carries in three of his seven games last season.
Fantasy Downside
Guice may be gone, but this is still a unit that ranked 30th in the NFL in rushing last season. Kelley was given an opportunity last year and did nothing with it. In fact, the satellite back Chris Thompson began taking his snaps. Washington could also opt to bring in competition. Kelley also provides nothing as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, failing to catch a pass in five of his seven games last season.
2018 Bottom Line
Kelley is not the RB to target in drafts this season, already failing multiple times to capitalize on opportunities in the past. He should be a hard pass, despite his reasonable ADP.
Week 10 vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are third in our aFPA vs. RB rankings and have allowed the second-fewest points overall to the position. Rob Kelley's utter lack of passing game usage keeps him on benches for Week 10, along with the tough matchup.
Week 9 at Seattle Seahawks
Rob Kelley has averaged 2.3 yards per carry since returning from injury and has only been targeted twice. He's not a viable fantasy starter, especially against a top-10 ranked defense in our aFPA vs. RB rankings.
Week 8 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Rob Kelley needs to show us some volume and efficiency first before we consider starting him again. It is a good matchup, though, as the Cowboys rank 23rd in our aFPA vs. RB rankings. It is also the highest over/under in Vegas for Week 8. However, Kelley's touch count just isn't high enough right now to consider starting him, as Chris Thompson is even getting work in goal-to-go situations.
Week 7 at Philadelphia Eagles
Rob Kelley (ankle) has been limited in practice this week and looks unlikely to play. Even if he does, it's not a matchup that makes him start-worthy. Philadelphia is a tough matchup (fourth in our aFPA vs. RB rankings). Chris Thompson is the only starting fantasy back in this offense.
Week 4 at Kansas City Chiefs
Rob Kelley (ribs) did practice Thursday, but his status will have to be monitored Saturday when the final injury report comes out for his Monday Night Football matchup against the Chiefs. Jay Gruden indicated Kelley is still the starter when he returns, but Thompson's fantastic performances are going to earn him at least a few more snaps. If Kelley returns, he's a FLEX play at best against a team that's top-half in our aFPA vs. RB rankings.
Week 3 vs. Oakland Raiders
Oakland-Washington is projected to be the highest scoring game of Week 3 on Sunday night, with a total of 54.5 points. Washington is the home underdog, which could lead to negative game script and more passing for Cousins, coupled with an implied team total of 25.75 points. Rob Kelley has been limited in practice this week with a rib injury but says he'll play Sunday night. Given the late kickoff, consider better options, as Kelley is a low-end FLEX in standard leagues, at best, with his lack of passing game usage.
Week 2 at Los Angeles Rams
Rob Kelley plays the Rams on the road, a Wade Phillips-led defense ranked fifth in our aFPA vs. PPR RBs. Kelley will always be a better standard league than PPR play, and his 10 carries for only 30 yards Week 1 in an easier matchup against the Eagles are a concern. If that continues, Samaje Perine could become more involved. Kelley is only a low-end FLEX consideration in standard leagues this week, and it's likely a touchdown-or-bust proposition. How lucky do you feel?
Week 1 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Rob Kelley was the No. 13 running from Week 8 on last season and beat out rookie RB Samaje Perine for early-down work, at least to start the season. Consider Kelley a FLEX option in standard leagues, where he'll always be more valuable than PPR leagues, due to the presence of pass-catching back Chris Thompson. However, if you drafted other RBs earlier than Kelley, they're likely better options for Week 1.
Fantasy Upside
Kelley appears to have the starting early-down role for Washington, fending off rookie Samaje Perine, who has struggled with ball security and decisiveness in training camp. Last season, Kelley won the RB1 job in Week 8. From that point on, he was the RB15 in PPR leagues. The Redskins also return their entire offensive line that was a top-10 run blocking unit a year ago.
Fantasy Downside
Kelley does not add much as a pass-catcher, only hauling in 11 balls in his nine games as a starter from Weeks 9-17. His schedule will also be a bit more daunting this season, with six match-ups against last season's top-10 defenses in RB aFPA.
2017 Bottom Line
With Kelley likely starting the season as the starter in Washington, you'll have a difficult task finding a starting running back going later in drafts. His ninth-round ADP is worth a roll of the dice (even though Kelley is not overly high in our rankings), especially if you go WR heavy early or take a TE early and are looking for RBs late.
