Week 1 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Saints pounced on Mike Gillislee as soon as the Patriots released him in early September. He will serve as the team’s No. 2 back for New Orleans’ Week 1 matchup versus the Bucs, with Mark Ingram suspended for the first four games. Gillislee will serve as a power complement to Alvin Kamara but he won’t be a trustworthy option in fantasy. Ranked as our No. 43 RB for Week 1, avoid Gillislee this week.
Week 17 vs. New York Jets
The Patriots are still playing for home-field advantage this week, which makes their starters viable in fantasy for Week 17. The Patriots also have the highest implied team total in Vegas this week at 29 points. That again gives Gillislee a decent chance to score this week and return some FLEX value, but just know this is still a touchdown-or-bust proposition.
Week 16 vs. Buffalo Bills
The Patriots have the highest implied team total in Vegas this week at 29.5 points, and the Bills defense is a run funnel, ranking seventh in aFPA versus QBs but dead last in aFPA versus RBs. Plus, Rex Burkhead sprained his knee and is likely out. That means Mike Gillislee should be active again for the first time in weeks, but you're banking on the Patriots blowing out the Bills quickly and resting starting RB Dion Lewis for Gillislee to be a productive part of the offense and a sneaky fantasy start. Because even when Gillislee was active, he went six straight weeks without reaching six PPR points. Woof. Starting Gillislee this week in fantasy championships is probably the biggest gamble you can take that might also have huge upside.
Week 10 at Denver Broncos
Want to play fantasy football Russian Roulette? Because that's what figuring out which Patriots RB to start each week and whether to start them at all is like. Plus, the Broncos are fifth in our aFPA vs. RB rankings. Plus, Mike Gillislee has been passed on the depth chart by basically every other Patriots RB. You can't start him.
Week 8 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
This one could be another shootout, as Chargers-Patriots has the second-highest over/under of Week 8, but Mike Gillislee has been demoted behind Dion Lewis, having played fewer than 20% of the snaps each of the past two weeks. You can't start him in Week 8.
Week 7 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Mike Gillislee was already touchdown dependent, and then he didn't start last week over Dion Lewis before fumbling later in the game. Not good. It's always risky to rely on a Patriots RB, but it's even riskier now for Gillislee, as he's ceding touches to Lewis and James White. He belongs on your bench until further notice.
Week 6 at New York Jets
Mike Gillislee has put together five weeks of evidence that shows he's a touchdown-or-bust fantasy option. However, his chances are really good this week against a Jets team ranked 31st in aFPA vs. PPR RBs. Gillislee could see more touches, too, with Tom Brady nursing a sprained non-throwing shoulder injury, if the Patriots get up big early. However, his floor is low each week, as he's yet to play 40% of snaps in a game.
Week 5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Patriots utter lack of a defense through four weeks has meant New England has played from behind more often than most expected. That has led to fewer snaps for Gillislee. He has yet to play 40% of snaps this season, and last week he played a season-low 25.7% snaps. He still had 12 carries, but it's starting to feel like Gillislee is a touchdown-or-bust weekly fantasy start, but his chances of a rushing touchdown each week are far better than most. Despite the past two weeks, he's scored in half of his games this season, and there's always upside for multiple touchdowns in this offense. That's why he's still a low-end RB2 on Thursday Night in Tampa Bay, despite his low weekly floor.
Week 4 vs. Carolina Panthers
Blount 2.0 in the Patriots offense has looked touchdown-dependent in his first three games in New England. He probably has the best chance of any NFL RB each week to find the end zone, given the offense, but the low weekly floor is there along with the high weekly ceiling. As 14-point favorites last week, Gillislee was a good bet to score but didn't. That meant just 12 carries for 31 yards. Gillislee has also yet to play 40% of the snaps in a game, further limiting his opportunities outside the goal-line area. Consider Gillislee a RB2 this week, with the Patriots again a heavy favorite at home, but keep in mind the low floor if you have better, high-volume options. The Panthers are top-10 in fantasy points allowed to PPR RBs this year.
Week 3 vs. Houston Texans
The Patriots are double-digit home favorites against the Texans and have the highest Vegas implied team total for the second week in a row at 29 points. Both of those things add up to yet another above-average chance for Mike Gillislee to score a goal-line touchdown, as he leads the NFL in carries inside the 10 and goal-line carries. Rex Burkhead is also questionable, which further cements Gillislee as an RB2 this week.
