Week 4 at Indianapolis Colts
UPDATE:
J.J. Nelson is OUT against the Colts
J.J. Nelson benefited from the release of Week 1 starter, Ryan Grant. In Week 3, Nelson played 78% of snaps, had four receptions on five targets, 36 yards, 15% of the team targets, and 12% of the team air yards. Nelson will continue to get more snaps but he has a difficult matchup against the Indianapolis Colts. They are third-best against wide receivers, as shown by our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. 4for4 rankings expert John Paulsen has Nelson ranked as the Half PPR WR63. Nelson should not be in starting lineups.
Week 1 vs. Denver Broncos
Fantasy owners should have better streaming options on the waiver wire than Nelson. He was outside the top 90 wide receivers until the Antonio Brown was traded to the Patriots. The news boosted Nelson up to PPR WR77 in Week 1 with a median projection of 5.5 fantasy points in John Paulsen's rankings. However, the Broncos are better than average against wide receivers as shown by our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric that has them ranked 13th best in the NFL. Nelson could be a bench stash in deeper leagues but he is not a good start this week in traditional fantasy leagues.
Fantasy Upside
As Bleacher Report noted, at 5-foot-10, 160 pounds, Nelson does one thing well: Run fast. He's a deep threat who can occasionally beat defenders downfield. Thanks to that speed, Nelson is useful in keeping opposing defensive coordinators honest, pushing safeties back and opening the field up for teammates like Larry Fitzgerald and David Johnson. It will be up to new offensive coordinator Mike McCoy, who history tells us is a pass-heavy playcaller, to find ways to incorporate Nelson into the offense beyond being just a threat.
Fantasy Downside
Also per B/R, Nelson "has some of the worst hands in the league, and that often leads to devastating drops. He is a major liability as a blocker and can't run a full route tree."
2018 Bottom Line
Barring some kind of surprising revelations in training camp and during exhibition play, it's going to be hard for fantasy managers to justify an investment of draft capital in Nelson, or the team's other wideouts not named Larry Fitzgerald.
Week 6 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
J.J. Nelson led the team in receiving yards last week with 80, but he only caught 4 passes total. He has some upside this week against the Bucs, who allow more fantasy points to the WR position than any other team in football this season, but it’s hard to trust him with John Brown healthy and Jaron Brown also playing well. Fantasy owners should consider Nelson a low-end desperation start at best, with some boom/bust potential.
Week 5 at Philadelphia Eagles
J.J. Nelson has disappointed the past couple of games, including catching only 3 passes for 34 yards against the 49ers last week. With John Brown healthy and Jaron Brown getting plenty of targets, it’s hard to trust Nelson to get back to being a prominent player in the offense. With the inconsistency and injury issues in the Cardinals WR corps, Nelson is worth holding on to, but he’s probably better left on the bench for now, even with a good matchup against the Eagles.
Week 4 vs. San Francisco 49ers
J.J. Nelson was hobbled last week and disappointing as a result, netting a goose egg on 3 targets against the Cowboys. Nelson scored in two consecutive weeks prior, however, and as long as he’s healthy, he should have value moving forward.
After last week’s performance, it’s hard to trust him, even against a 49ers defense that has allowed 6 touchdown passes so far this season, including 3 to Jared Goff and the Rams a week ago. Nelson should be on your roster, but probably not in your lineup this week until we see he’s healthy and ready to go.
Week 3 vs. Dallas Cowboys
J.J. Nelson has scored a touchdown in two straight weeks, and he caught 5-of-7 balls thrown his way against the Colts last Sunday for 120 yards. Nelson is looking like a much better option than the oft-injured John Brown, and he remains above Jaron Brown on the depth chart, making him a good pickup.
Nelson was a surprise addition to the Thursday injury report this week, but if he starts, he should be considered a low-end WR2/WR3 option with upside. He has big-play potential and faces a Cowboys team that gave up 4 touchdowns to Trevor Siemian last week.
Week 2 at Indianapolis Colts
J.J. Nelson had 5 catches for 43 yards and a touchdown against the Lions in Week 1, but he’s still vying with John Brown for WR2 targets, making it difficult to trust him week-to-week. However, with Brown out this week, and a great matchup against the Colts, Nelson has some sneaky start potential in large leagues. He has shown he can be productive when he gets targets and the Cardinals should have success throwing the ball. He’s worth an exploratory add to large rosters, and if you're desperate, has some upside as a low-end WR3.
Fantasy Upside
J.J. Nelson enjoyed a bit of a breakout during the second half of the 2016 season, but he benefited from quite a few splashy plays and caught only 34 passes on the season. After playing sparingly behind Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and John Brown, Nelson was a near-every-down player and racked up 9.7 targets per game during the final three games of the season. As ESPN.com noted, Nelson's 16.9 average depth of target was highest among players targeted at least 50 times. The 2015 fifth-round pick is undersized at 5-foot-10, 160 pounds, but boasts game-breaking 4.26 speed.
Fantasy Downside
It's a crowded field if all involved—including David Johnson, who in addition to his running back duties is also the team's de facto No. 2 WR—are healthy and playing their usual roles. Carson Palmer will need to be on his game and he'll have to spread the ball around to fuel everybody's fantasy needs.
2017 Bottom Line
Fitzgerald turns 34 this year, Floyd is gone, and Brown struggled with health issues all last season, so Arizona added Chad Williams in the third round of April's draft. But the newcomer is viewed more as an eventual replacement for Fitzgerald than an immediate impact receiver this year, so Nelson's chances of playing a significant role in 2017 are reasonable.
Week 17 vs. Los Angeles
J.J. Nelson is a boom-bust option who has been able to find the end zone in four straight games. It’s hard not to like his potential with Michael Floyd gone and his nose for the end zone, especially coming off a 132 yards performance against Seattle last week. Nelson and the Cardinal passing game has not been consistent for much of the year, so there’s risk in counting on the speedy second year player, but he has at least seven targets in two straight games, making him a decent WR3 option in large leagues or quick strike formats.
