Week 17 vs. Buffalo Bills
The Dolphins host the Bills in Week 17, looking to spoil Buffalo's playoff hopes. Jay Cutler threw three picks against the Bills a few weeks ago. So, if you're playing in Week 17, you should not be playing with Jay Cutler. The Bills are also top-10 in aFPA to QBs.
Week 16 at Kansas City Chiefs
Miami has the fourth-lowest implied team total in Vegas this week at 16.5 points, and the Dolphins must go on the road to face a Chiefs playing for the AFC West crown. Not a good combination for Jay Cutler. Cutler has just two games this season with more than 15 fantasy points. In Week 16, he should be on all benches or waivers, even in two-quarterback leagues.
Week 15 at Buffalo Bills
The Dolphins clearly had their best performances of the season at home the past two weeks against the Patriots and Broncos. But this warm weather team must now go to Buffalo, where Miami has a bottom-six implied team total in Vegas this week. Miami has not scored more than 21 points in a road game this season. Buffalo has also allowed the sixth-fewest points to quarterbacks over the past four weeks. Jay Cutler has not reached 15 fantasy points in any road game this season. He's not a Week 15 starter in 1QB leagues.
Week 14 vs. New England Patriots
The Patriots have not allowed a quarterback to reach 15 fantasy points for five consecutive weeks. Jay Cutler has reached 15 fantasy points once this season. We could get into all the other analytics about why this is a bad matchup, but it's pretty obvious. Bench Jay Cutler.
Week 13 vs. Denver Broncos
Miami-Denver has the lowest over/under in Vegas for Week 13, with the Dolphins only expected to score 19 points. What do you expect from a Trevor Siemian-Jay Cutler matchup? At this point, Denver is just average in aFPA vs. QBs this season, but he has just one game this season with 15 points or more. You can't start him.
Week 12 at New England Patriots
On paper, this appears to be a good matchup for Jay Cutler. The Patriots are ranked 23rd in aFPA vs. QBs, and the Dolphins are 17-point underdogs, foreshadowing high passing volume in a negative game script. However, the Patriots are much improved against quarterbacks over the past four weeks. New England is allowing just 12.9 fantasy points per game over that span, compared to a season average of more than 19 fantasy points per game allowed. The Patriots have also allowed just one passing touchdown in each of those games. Jay Cutler is not a good streaming option this week, unless you really want to chase garbage time points. He's also still in the concussion protocol and it's unclear if he'll play. Monitor the injury reports leading to kickoff for his game status.
Week 11 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Predictably, Jay Cutler did not fare nearly as well last week against the Panthers on the road as he did the week prior against the Raiders at home. He's back at home this week against a Tampa Bay defense ranked 25th in our aFPA vs. QB rankings. Considering Cutler has just one game this year with more than 15 fantasy points, it's a leap of faith to stream him in Week 11. Find a safer option.
Week 10 at Carolina Panthers
Cutler threw 3 touchdown passes last week, and we now know a good fantasy week is still in his range of outcomes if the matchup is right. In Week 10 though, the matchup is wrong, very wrong. Carolina is fifth in our aFPA vs. QB rankings. The Panthers are also eighth in overall fantasy points allowed to the position. Cutler was a viable streaming option last week but not this week.
Week 9 vs. Oakland Raiders
Jay Cutler returns from a rib injury to play in primetime. Statistically speaking, this is a good matchup for him and with the Dolphins trading Jay Ajayi coupled with the return of DeVante Parker, his volume should increase. Oakland is ranked a lowly 24th in our aFPA vs. QB rankings. However, Cutler's season high in standard fantasy points is just 13.1. This is the most desperate of streaming options in Week 9.
Week 7 vs. New York Jets
You'd think the New York Jets would be a great fantasy matchup, but Jay Cutler posted fewer than 12 points in his first game against the J-E-T-S this year, and that touchdown was ultimate garbage time at the very end of the fourth quarter. The Dolphins are attempting to win the same way they did last season, with ball control and defense. Miami is 30th in plays per game and 30th in home pass play percentage. Bench Cutler.
