Week 6 vs. Baltimore Ravens (London)
Derrick Henry continues to get the majority of the backfield opportunities in Tennessee, but it's time to be concerned about the increasing involvement of Tyjae Spears. Spears played 49% of the Titans' offensive snaps in Week 5, but has out-snapped Henry twice this year already and saw 12 of the 28 backfield opportunities (carries plus targets) in last week's game. Henry will not have nearly the floor he usually does if he is effectively splitting touches with Spears, and he really only projects for a ceiling outcome in games with a clear positive game script. That will not be the case this week with the Titans traveling to London to take on a formidable Ravens defense. Henry is still a surefire fantasy starter, but he is more of a RB2 in his current environment for Week 6.
Week 5 at Indianapolis Colts
Derrick Henry finally got to experience a positive game script in Week 4 and fantasy managers reaped the benefits as he broke out for 133 total yards on 23 touches, and logged both a rushing and passing touchdown. Henry finished as the RB7 on the week, showing he still has a lofty ceiling when things break right for him in terms of game script. Henry has a chance to turn in another solid showing this week with the Titans installed as road favorites over the Colts. Indianapolis has a fairly mediocre run defense and Henry should be given plenty of work so long as the Titans don't fall behind early on the scoreboard. Lock Henry into lineups as a low-end RB1 this week.
Week 4 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Derrick Henry's Week 3 performance was an abject disaster as the Titans got obliterated by the Browns' elite defense and failed to clear 100 total yards of offense. The Browns look like they might have the best defense in football this year, so Henry's matchups can only improve from here. That being said, Henry gets the Bengals in Week 4 who also have a solid run defense and will put Henry at risk for a negative game script given their talent on offense. Henry's lack of pass catching contributions (five receptions in three games) make him higher risk than other backs that are typically ranked near him for fantasy. Henry is still a large part of the Titans' weekly game plans for as long as the game remains competitive, but he is looking more like a low-end RB1 or RB2 given how inconsistent the Titans have been offensively this year.
Week 3 at Cleveland Browns
Derrick Henry's robust workload remains intact as he has logged 40 carries through the first two weeks of the season to go along with five receptions and 214 total yards. Negative game scripts will continue to be an issue for Henry with backup Tyjae Spears working in on most obvious passing downs, but he still projects for one of the league's best workloads in any game that is remotely competitive. This week's game falls into that category, as the Titans will travel to Cleveland face off with a Browns defense that is far better against the pass than they are against the run. Henry should be the clear focal point of the Titans' offensive game plan this week, and is a locked-in RB1 for fantasy managers in a game where he should dominate touches for Tennessee.
Week 2 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Derrick Henry's Week 1 performance looks fine on paper. He logged 119 total yards on 17 touches (15 carries and two receptions), but backup Tyjae Spears actually out-snapped Henry 34 to 30. Spears played every third down for the Titans and siphoned off four of Ryan Tannehill's targets on the day. Some of Spears' usage can be attributed to game script as the Titans were trailing most of the game, leading to more passing situations for the Tennessee offense. That being said, it appears clear that Henry will not play on many third downs this season, which severely caps his pass catching upside. Henry remains a good bet for great rushing volume, but Week 1 showed that he is still somewhat game script dependent with a limited role in the passing game. Henry remains a RB1 for Week 2 against the Chargers, but he will need some systemic improvement from Tannehill and the offense as a whole to reach his ceiling.
Week 1 at New Orleans Saints
Coming off a season where he racked up 1,538 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns on 349 carries, Derrick Henry will start off 2023 against the New Orleans Saints, a team that finished near the middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs last season. Henry should easily clear 300 touches again this season presuming he stays healthy, and he projects for the biggest rushing workload of any running back for Sunday's matchup. He remains a great bet for 20+ carries against the Saints, and it will be interesting to see how many looks he receives in the passing game now that Ryan Tannehill is back under center. Henry will have easier matchups in the future, but he remains an easy RB1 to kick off the 2023 fantasy season.
Fantasy Upside
With Tennessee's offensive infrastructure collapsing around him throughout 2022, Derrick Henry still managed to finish as a top-five RB in fantasy by amassing 1,936 total yards and 13 touchdowns on a robust 349 touches. Henry remains one of the few running backs left in the NFL who is his team's offensive focal point and unquestioned workhorse. Ryan Tannehill is back under center to start the 2023 season, which can only help Henry's efficiency as the Titans posed virtually no threat through the air with Malik Willis and Josh Dobbs starting. One bright spot from last season was Henry's 33 receptions for 398 receiving yards, both career-highs for him. We will have to see if Henry's recent bump in receiving usage continues with Tannehill starting again, but if it does, it would only reinforce his already strong floor. Henry will once again be a strong bet to lead the league in carries and rushing yards, and is a virtual lock for 300+ touches if he plays a full season. As usual, Henry projects as a solid RB1 option for fantasy.
Fantasy Downside
Henry will turn 30 years old in January and is rapidly approaching the point in his career when RBs tend to suffer a big drop in production. Henry's advanced metrics show declining efficiency last year, although some of that can probably be attributed to the disastrous offense surrounding him for stretches. Henry's 5.1 yards per touch was only good for 23rd amongst RBs, and that was with him still managing to break the fifth-most tackles of anyone at the position. Henry lived on volume more than ever in 2022, and while he remains a great bet to see a ton of carries, the risk in taking him as your RB1 rises when he is not breaking as many long runs. Henry is one of the most athletically gifted players in the NFL, but his eventual decline is inevitable and may have already started.
2023 Bottom Line
Henry still projects for one of the league's best workloads at the RB position and will post massive numbers with even average efficiency if he stays healthy for 17 games. The fact that the Titans signed DeAndre Hopkins is a great sign for Henry as it now appears unlikely the Titans bench Tannehill for rookie Will Levis this year. Henry's uncertain passing game role keeps him from the elite tier of fantasy backs, but he's still a surefire RB1 and second round pick.
Week 17 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Derrick Henry's status for Thursday night's game against the Cowboys is up in the air due to his hip issue after Henry was listed as a non-participant in practice on Monday. Henry did appear to get some limited reps in practice on Tuesday, and told reporters afterward that he would be ready to play. We likely won't have any clarity on Henry's status until Wednesday's injury report at the earliest, and it's possible this ends up as a dreaded "game-time decision" situation for a Thursday night game. If he suits up, Henry is, as usual, a clear RB1 despite a difficult Week 17 matchup coming off a game where he logged 126 rushing yards and a touchdown on 23 carries against the Texans. If he doesn't suit up for Thursday, it appears that Hassan Haskins and Julius Chestnut will absorb his workload in the backfield. Henry is a surefire starter regardless of matchup when healthy, but fantasy managers could have to monitor the latest news out of Tennessee's camp all the way up until inactives are announced Thursday evening.
Week 16 vs. Houston Texans
Derrick Henry should be in store for all the work he can handle in Week 16 against the Texans' atrocious run defense with Ryan Tannehill injured and rookie Malik Willis likely to start under center. The Titans did not pass the ball more than 16 times in either of Willis' other two starts this season, and Henry saw a total of 49 carries in those games while racking up 343 rushing yards. Henry is already one of the league's best bets to see 20 touches at the running back position, but with a mouth-watering matchup on deck and Willis starting this week, he has a limitless ceiling for fantasy. Henry is our top-ranked running back play this week, even in PPR formats.
Week 15 at Los Angeles Chargers
Derrick Henry returned to the RB1 ranks in Week 14 when he logged 155 total yards and a rushing touchdown on 20 touches (17 carries and three catches). Henry ranks fourth at his position in fantasy points per game through 14 weeks, and now gets a Chargers defense that is just below average in suppressing the fantasy production of opposing running backs. Henry remains a great bet to log 20 touches this week and will have a great chance to find the end zone as the centerpiece of the Titans' offensive philosophy. Henry is once again a strong RB1 as we head into the fantasy playoffs.
