Week 1 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Dak Prescott enters Week 1 set to face off with the Rams on Sunday night in a game with a high betting total of 52 points. The Rams finished as a top ten defense against the pass last season and return defensive stars such as Jalen Ramsey and Aaron Donald, but are dealing with the loss of several other defensive starters and it is unlikely they will be able to smother all of Prescott's receiving options with Michael Gallup, CeeDee Lamb and Blake Jarwin complementing Amari Cooper this year. Prescott's projection is aided by the fact that both the Cowboys and Rams typically play at a quick offensive pace, suggesting this game has shootout potential. Lock Prescott into lineups as a strong QB1 for Week 1.
Fantasy Upside
Dak Prescott enters 2020 hungry for a long-term contract and surrounded by the best weaponry of his career. This comes after posting his best season to date in 2019. Prescott amassed 4,901 passing yards (second in the league) and 30 touchdown passes (fourth in the league) last season, his first under Offensive Coordinator Kellen Moore. He tacked on another three touchdowns on the ground to finish as the second-best quarterback in fantasy. Prescott will face stiff competition to repeat a second-place finish among quarterbacks, but he will once again be a surefire QB1. In addition to the counting stats, Prescott has become a more efficient passer as he has grown older. He posted 8.2 yards per attempt in 2019, the best of his career, and good enough to finish fifth among quarterbacks. And all of that is before mentioning that in 2020 he will be playing with the best group of skill-position players he has ever had. Prescott already has an established rapport with Amari Cooper, and Michael Gallup emerged as an exciting second option last season. The Cowboys bolstered their passing game even more during the offseason by adding arguably the best wide receiver in this year’s draft, Ceedee Lamb, to Prescott’s arsenal. Prescott is poised for another strong season and should be one of the first five quarterbacks drafted this summer.
Fantasy Downside
The fact that the Cowboys have a new head coach in Mike McCarthy means that there is more uncertainty surrounding Prescott than there normally would be for a consensus top-five fantasy quarterback. While Moore is expected to retain play-calling duties, McCarthy will surely make some tweaks to the offense. This is not all bad for Prescott. Aaron Rodgers only played one season under McCarthy where he was healthy for 16 games and threw less than 500 times. However, McCarthy is a known proponent of the West Coast offense, known for placing an emphasis on short, quick passes. This philosophy conflicts with where Prescott thrived last season when he finished second in the NFL in completion percentage on deep passes (48.7%) on the second most deep pass attempts in the league (78). McCarthy would be wise not to abandon Prescott’s deep passing in favor of his preferred West Coast scheme. A reduction in deep passing is not enough to tank Prescott’s outlook as a fantasy player, but it could mean a reduction in his yardage and touchdown totals.
2020 Bottom Line
Prescott projects as a quality QB1 in all formats due to his passing proficiency, rushing upside and strong supporting cast. Even if Prescott experiences some regression in his yardage or attempt numbers, he should have a solid weekly floor and the Cowboys’ abundance of offensive talent should lead to him posting strong fantasy numbers yet again.
Week 17 vs Washington
The Cowboys need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive so Dallas won't hold anything back. Dak Prescott threw for 265 yards but zero touchdowns. It was the third game this season that he did not throw a touchdown pass.
Prescott will face the Redskins who are 23rd in aFPA to quarterbacks and just gave up a ton of yardage and touchdowns to Giants rookie QB Daniel Jones. In the first meeting back in Week 2, Prescott threw for 269 yards and three touchdowns against Washington.
Start Prescott as a top-five fantasy quarterback for Week 17. We expect big numbers from him and the Cowboys offense in a week where there are lots of backups expected to play.
Week 16 at Philadelphia
Dak Prescott didn't have to do much last week against LA. He only threw for 212 yards, but did throw two touchdown passes and zero turnovers. Now the big question is his health. He has been limited in practice with a shoulder issue. He has claimed he will play on Sunday.
Prescott faces the Eagles who are 17th in aFPA to quarterbacks. The first meeting against Philly, Prescott had an average day with 235 passing yards with one touchdown pass and two turnovers.
If he plays, Prescott should be in your starting lineup as a low-end QB1. The Eagles havs struggled at times in recent week stopping the pass so he should improve on his numbers from the first time the two teams played.
Week 15 vs Los Angeles Rams
It was a rough game for Dak Prescott but he still managed to throw for 334 yards and one touchdown. His completion percentage was down, but he didn't turn the ball over which had been a problem in recent weeks. His team has struggled, but Prescott has maintained himself as a viable fantasy option.
Prescott will face the Rams who are 13th in aFPA to quarterbacks, but the LA defense has been better the second half of the season. It's hard to pinpoint exactly what's the issues are with the Dallas offense, but Prescot is a safe play as a QB1 for Week 15. Start him in all leagues and formats.
Week 14 at Chicago
Dak Prescott put up decent fantasy numbers despite the Cowboys loss on Thanksgiving. He threw for 355 yards and two touchdowns. However, he did have an interception and a fumble lost. The Cowboys passing game is still playing well and the fantasy numbers are still high most weeks.
It's a tough matchup this week against the Bears who are eighth in aFPA to quarterbacks. Prescott still has some games where the numbers aren't great, but for the most part, he meets his projections.
Start Prescott as a QB1 for Week 14. Even with the Bears good defense, he is a good play for Thursday night.
Week 13 vs Buffalo
It was a big fall off against a good defense as Dak Prescott was held to 212 yards. It was only the third game this season where he did not throw a touchdown pass. Prescott did throw his 10th interception of the season.
The Bills are up next and are ranked 11th in aFPA to quarterbacks. We expect a bounce back performance from Prescott who has only struggled in a few games this season. Start him as a solid QB1 for Week 13 on Thanksgiving Day. You should get good fantasy numbers from him.
Week 12 vs New England
Dak Prescott is putting up some of the best numbers of his career. Last week, he threw for 444 yards and three touchdowns and his overall numbers should be his career-best in almost every category if he keeps up this pace.
However, he will have his stiffest challenge to date as he faces the Patriots who are ranked first in aFPA to quarterbacks. Prescott will have to limit his mistakes so the Cowboys might be more conservative with him than usual.
Prescott should still be in your starting lineup for Week 12 in all leagues and formats but as a low-end QB1 against New England. The running game should be the focus of the Dallas offense.
Week 11 at Detroit
Dak Prescott had one of the best fantasy games of the 2019 last Sunday. He threw for 397 yards and three touchdown passes. The only blemish was one interception. One negative that helped him to those numbers was he threw 46 passes, something Dallas does not want.
Prescott could put up some big numbers in Week 11 against the Lions who are 29th in aFPA to quarterbacks. We expect only about 25 to 30 passes thrown, but the matchup should help him throw for more yards per completion.
Start Prescott as a top-five fantasy quarterback against Detroit. He has a chance to be the top fantasy quarterback this week.
Week 10 vs Minnesota
Dak Prescott has bounced back with two solid games to help the Cowboys go on a mini-winning streak. Last week, he threw for 257 yards and three touchdowns. It was the first time since Week 2 he threw more than two touchdowns in a game.
The Cowboys play Minnesota who is 14th in aFPA to quarterbacks, The Vikings are strong against the run so Dallas will probably have to rely on Prescott to make it three straight.
Start Prescott as a solid QB1 for Week 10. Dallas is playing better and will be challenged, but it should be another good game for Prescott.
