Week 5 vs Giants
One week after connecting on a passing touchdown every seven completions, Dak Prescott threw one every 3.5 Week 4. The efficiency is otherworldly but it will not be sustainable. Prescott gets a solid matchup with the Giants coming to town. New York ranks 24th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to the quarterback position but has only allowed one 300-yard passer through four weeks. None of the four teams the Giants have faced have the offensive firepower as Dallas so expect Dak Prescott to be a QB1 with top-five upside.
Week 4 vs Carolina Panthers
Efficient quarterback play is what we are here for. Dak Prescott threw a touchdown pass once every seven completions/eight pass attempts Week 3. The Carolina Panthers come to town this week short rookie first-round CB Jaycee Horn in the secondary. The Panthers enter Week 4 seventh against quarterbacks in aFPA and part of the success is the front four’s ability to get to the QB. This will be Carolina’s first “real” challenge against a proven signal caller with a proven offense. Expect Dak and company to have a similar game as Week 3 at home in Week 4.
Week 3 vs Eagles
Dak Prescott took a step back in Week 2 in part to more rushing attempts and injuries/suspensions to the Cowboys' offensive line. Enter the Eagles Week 3, a defense that slowed the San Francisco 49ers but still could not solve their run-heavy approach. The Eagles entered 2021 21st against opposing quarterbacks according to 4for4’s schedule-adjusted positional defense rankings but have held Matt Ryan and Jimmy Garoppolo each under 200 yards passing. Dak is the clear better talent even if his offensive line resembles the Falcons more than the 49ers, and his receiving options may be the best in the NFL. If Amari Cooper were to miss Week 3 (bruised ribs) then Prescott would see his projection change.
Week 2 vs Chargers
After impressing on the road in Tampa Bay, Dak Prescott will be asked to reprise his Week 1 performance on the west coast against the Chargers. Los Angeles only allowed 135 passing yards to the Washington Football Team in their season opener, but an injury to Ryan Fitzpatrick played a role in Washington’s play calls. WFT also had one interception, four passes defended, and two sacks against a better offensive line than what the Cowboys offer. Attempting more runs with the return of right guard Zack Martin will help alleviate some pressure Prescott endures, but expect him to scramble as much as he did against the Bucs.
Week 1 vs, Buccaneers
After missing the majority of the preseason, Dak Prescott gets the first crack at the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers. While the Bucs are 16th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the quarterback position, the Cowboys are already down one offensive lineman with Zack Martin out due to COVID-19. The line’s health was a major factor in 2020 regardless of who was at quarterback for Dallas.
Tampa Bay returns their entire defense, including a healthy Vita Vea on the defensive line. Only one player is questionable to play for Tampa’s defense, so as daunting as a task it may seem for Prescott and company to open the season on the road, there is plenty of tape on the Bucs defense and a slew of offensive weapons at Prescott’s disposal.
Prescott was on a historic passing track prior to his season-ending injury. Expecting Prescott to pick up where he left off is more fantasy than reality, but if the Cowboys are to keep pace with an equally talented Bucs offense, the franchise QB will need to perform like the start of 2020 was not an aberration.
Fantasy Upside
Fewer quarterbacks entered the 2020 NFL season with as much hype as Dak Prescott. He was the QB2 through four-plus games before being lost for the season due to a right ankle compound fracture and dislocation. Prescott is on track to return healthy and to an offense with three excellent receivers, two trusted running backs, a healthy Blake Jarwin, and a healthier offensive line. The 28-year old averaged 30.6 fantasy points per game Weeks 1-4 and collected 12.4 points Week 5 before being injured. One of the top correlations for quarterbacks is passing yards and Prescott has seen his per-game average increase in each of the past three seasons. What is also impressive (and probably not replicable) is adding 60-plus passing yards per game to his average over that time. He has also been consistent in completing passes, topping 65% in four of five seasons. Dak’s offensive production is also boosted by an improved but poor defense; the Cowboys ranked 29th in 4for4’s Half-PPR Schedule Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA).
Fantasy Downside
The Cowboys have the fifth-most difficult QB Strength of Schedule using aFPA. That includes one of the worst fantasy playoff schedules and zero ‘Good’ matchups, the fewest of any team. There is also the Mike McCarthy factor, a known West Coast offense disciple. Short, quick passes can dominate but in this case, is mitigated some by the talented receiving corps. A bounce-back campaign from Ezekiel Elliott could also take away from Prescott’s passing workload as a way to keep the Dallas defense off the field. The most important thing to keep an eye on is Dak’s right ankle. He is not a top running quarterback (19 yards per game over his career) but his mobility opens his passing options and has given him value in the red zone. Prescott was on his way to setting a new career-high in rushing touchdowns prior to his injury. Losing the benefit of his legs even some takes away part of Dak’s fantasy ceiling.
2021 Bottom Line
Dak Prescott projects as a high-to-mid level QB1 in all formats due to him being in the peak age range, elite passing offense weapons, a top-end running back, and a healthier offensive line. There is always a chance regression hits especially after his red-hot start to 2020, but his aforementioned passing targets and suspect Cowboys defense offers a safe floor with high-end spike weeks.
Week 5 vs. New York Giants
The struggles in Dallas are not enough to slow down Dak Prescott's fantasy campaign as he has now thrown for 450 yards in three consecutive games and has 12 total touchdowns on the season. Prescott is playing at a high level, but some of his gaudy stats can be attributed to the Cowboys' horrific defense which has required the Dallas offense to light up the scoreboard on a weekly basis to have any shot at winning. The Dallas defense does not look like it is going to improve anytime soon, so Prescott should continue to throw at close to a league-leading clip. The Giants rank in the top 10 of our schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric for opposing quarterbacks, meaning Prescott is set up with a nice matchup in a game the Cowboys will be desperate to win. He should be started weekly as a high-end QB1 due to his massive ceiling that results from a combination of game script, talent and supporting cast.
Week 4 vs. Cleveland Browns
Dak Prescott has lit up the statsheet through three weeks even though the Cowboys sit at 1-2 as they get set to host the Browns Sunday. Prescott is averaging 396 passing yards per game, has thrown five touchdowns, and has already matched his total from last season with three rushing scores. The Browns are not a troubling matchup for Prescott as they have allowed the 11th most fantasy points to quarterbacks so far this season and allow a ton of plays to the opposing team's offense. CeeDee Lamb has already emerged as a reliable slot option for Prescott, and the Cowboys even got their deep passing game clicking against the Seahawks with Michael Gallup going off for 138 yards and a touchdown. The Cowboys offense is trending up and Prescott should continue to be started as a QB1 regardless of matchup.
Week 3 at Seattle Seahawks
Dak Prescott rebounded from a slow Week 1 to explode in Week 2 with 450 yards passing and four total touchdowns, including three of the rushing variety. Week 2 will likely be one of Prescott's best fantasy days of the season as he is unlikely to steal as many goal line looks from Ezekiel Elliott in a typical week. That being said, traveling to Seattle to take on a Seahawks defense that has been shredded by Matt Ryan and Cam Newton for huge fantasy days is not an intimidating matchup and the Cowboys should have little trouble moving the ball against Seattle. The fact that Russell Wilson is on the other sideline only helps Prescott's projection as this game has the highest betting total of the week in what projects as a shootout. The Seahawks have a weak pass rush and middling secondary, so Dallas's talented receivers should be able to find separation and Prescott should have plenty of time to hit them downfield. Start Prescott as a high-upside QB1 in Week 3.
Week 2 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Week 1 was slightly disappointing for Prescott as he only managed 266 yards passing and a single touchdown in a matchup with the Rams. While Prescott added 30 rushing yards, fantasy owners likely expected more in what was projected to be a shootout. That being said, Prescott backers have another great matchup this week against a Falcons defense that Russell Wilson just shredded for 322 yards and four touchdowns. Prescott will have to make do with an offensive line that has dropped off significantly in the past few years, but he still has a plethora of dynamic weapons and the rushing upside you crave in a fantasy quarterback. The betting total for Sunday's game in Dallas is a sky-high 53.5, so we should see plenty of offense from both sides. Start Prescott with confidence as a QB1 in Week 2.
