Week 6 at. Los Angeles Chargers
Week 5 was a tough day at the office for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. Prescott completed just 14 of his 24 pass attempts for 153 yards and a touchdown, also tossing three interceptions. Prescott managed 4.3 fantasy points, a tally exceeded by 28 quarterbacks. Prescott averages 11.8 fantasy points per game in 2023, good for QB24.
Week 6 presents an ideal spot for Prescott to break out of his fantasy doldrums as the Cowboys take on the Chargers. Brandon Staley's charges rank 30th in aFPA to quarterbacks in 2023. Still, it's hard to see Prescott as anything above a high-end QB2, given his prior form.
Week 5 at San Francisco 49ers
Another week, another game in which Dak Prescott produced practically nothing of note in fantasy football circles. The Cowboys quarterback was efficient, completing 28 of his 34 attempts, but his 261 yards contained just one touchdown pass. The days of Prescott as a runner seem all but over. Prescott was the QB17 and is the QB22 in fantasy points per game this year.
Prescott faces a fairly middle-of-the-road opponent in the 49ers this week, at least according to aFPA. The 49ers rank 15th in that regard in 2023. Still, Prescott just fails to truly excite the expectant fantasy manager these days and should be viewed as a low-end QB2 in Week 5.
Week 4 vs. New England Patriots
It was another middling performance from Dak Prescott against the Cardinals in Week 3. Prescott amassed 249 yards and a touchdown while throwing a pick, and added 24 yards on three rushing attempts. Prescott earned 14.4 Half PPR points per his efforts, finishing as the QB19 for the week, Through three weeks of the season, Prescott is QB20 in fantasy points per game.
It doesn't look good for Week 4 to be the week that Prescott breaks out of his fantasy fun. The Patriots rank 1st in aFPA to quarterbacks in 2023, making Prescott a low-upside QB2 option this week.
Week 3 at Arizona Cardinals
The Dallas Cowboys continued their hot start to the season in Week 2, thanks to an efficient fantasy performance from Dak Prescott. Prescott completed 31 of 38 attempts for 255 yards and tossed a pair of touchdowns on his way to 19.6 Half PPR points. Prescott finished as the QB17 last week, and through two weeks he is the QB25 in Half PPR scoring.
Prescott should be able to put up low-end QB1 numbers against the Cardinals in Week 3. The matchup with the Cardinals is the 12th best among quarterbacks this week.
Week 2 vs New York Jets
Dak Prescott had a quiet start to the season in Week 1 as the Cowboys' defense carried the team to a rout of the New York Giants. Prescott compiled 143 scoreless yards through the air and carried the ball once for six yards, giving him a meager 6.3 fantasy points in Half-PPR formats. 27 quarterbacks amassed more last week.
Prescott is not likely to post thumping numbers in Week 2 either, as the Cowboys take on the Jets. This is the seventh-hardest matchup for a quarterback this week, according to our metrics. Prescott profiles as a mid-tier QB2 this week.
Week 1 at New York Giants
Dak Prescott didn't exactly enjoy a season for the ages in 2022. He did lead the Cowboys to the playoffs, but he played just 12 regular season games. Prescott threw for 2,860 yards and 23 touchdowns, but he also tossed a career-high 15 interceptions. Once considered a good bet to add yards with his legs, Prescott carried the ball just 44 times for 181 yards and a solitary score. Prescott finished as the QB19 overall and the QB16 in points per game.
Prescott is a fairly middling fantasy option in Week 1 against the New York Giants. Wink Martindale's charges ranked 18th in aFPA to quarterbacks last season. We have Prescott projected as a high-end QB2 to open the season.
Fantasy Upside
While not exactly a stellar performer in 2022, Dak Prescott was still able to post 16.6 fantasy points per game, thanks in no small part to a 5.9% touchdown rate. Prescott tossed 23 scores on 394 attempts in his 12 games, but his 15 interceptions were a career-high. The Cowboys acquired Brandin Cooks in a trade with the Houston Texans, and this gives Prescott a solid 1-2 punch at wide receiver with CeeDee Lamb. Prescott does not seem to offer much as a runner anymore, with just two rushing scores over the last two seasons, but his knack for throwing touchdown passes should keep him fantasy relevant in 2023.
Fantasy Downside
Kellen Moore is gone from the Dallas Cowboys, taking his “lighting up the scoreboard” mentality with him to the Los Angeles Chargers. In his stead, the Cowboys have appointed Brian Schottenheimer as offensive coordinator, but head coach Mike McCarthy will call the plays. There is a real danger that the Cowboys become ridiculously run-heavy, therefore capping Prescott’s passing and his fantasy appeal.
2023 Bottom Line
Prescott is currently going off draft boards as a low-end QB1, but this seems to be taking him at his absolute ceiling in 2023, given his lack of rushing upside and the slow, run-heavy offense he could find himself at the helm of. Prescott profiles as more of a mid-level QB2 according to our metrics.
Week 17 at Tennessee Titans
Dak Prescott carried fantasy teams after a monster performance in week 16. Putting up 347 yards and three touchdowns, Prescott also added 41 rushing yards on 6 attempts. It paid off tremendously if you were brave enough to start him against the Philadelphia defense.
I expect another big week for Prescott as he faces off against a Tennessee defense that ranks 31st in passing yards allowed and 29th in passing touchdowns allowed. Start him with confidence as a QB1 for championship week.
Week 16 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Aside from throwing two interceptions last week, Dak Prescott had a strong fantasy day. Throwing for 256 yards and three touchdowns, he also added 20 yards on the ground on five attempts.
This week it would not surprise me if he disappoints. Going up against a Philadelphia defense that ranks first in passing yards allowed and tenth in passing touchdowns allowed, Prescott may find himself struggling. Unless it is a Superflex league or there are no other options available, I am looking elsewhere at the quarterback position.
Week 13 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Coming off a game in which Dallas struggled, Dak Prescott was not his sharpest. Putting up 284 yards and just one touchdown, Prescott threw for two interceptions. He did add 23 rushing yards on six attempts, however, it was still an overall disappointing performance.
I expect a bounce-back week for Prescott. Facing a Jacksonville defense that ranks 28th in passing yards allowed and 25th in passing touchdowns allowed, Prescott should be in line for a QB1 finish. Start him with confidence.
