Week 19 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers go west to east for the second consecutive week to take on the Patriots in New England with a trip to the AFC Championship game on the line. New England is a shrinking four-point favorite with a middle-of-the-pack implied team total of 25.5 points. The Chargers rank top five in aFPA to QBs, which makes Tom Brady a very risky option in the divisional round. Even though the Chargers rank top five in aFPA to WRs as well, Julian Edelman should still work as the primary pass catcher this week, making him an elite WR option. However, no other Patriots pass catcher can be ranked as more than a contrarian dart throw this week.
Week 17 vs. New York Jets
The Patriots should send their starters out for a full 60 minutes this week in an effort to lock up a first-round bye in the playoffs. New England also has an outside chance at home field advantage with a win and Chiefs and Chargers losses. Because of this, New England is among the highest implied team totals this week at 29.25 points after being installed as almost two-touchdown favorites. Tom Brady is in a bounce-back spot against a defense ranked dead last in aFPA to QBs. That will help the New England pass catchers, as the Jets are also dead last aFPA to WRs. The Jets have been torched by slot receivers all season. That should be no different this week for Julian Edelman. Start him with confidence. However, no other Patriots receiver can be started with that same confidence, even with Josh Gordon gone. The target share just doesn't defend that type of decision.
Week 16 vs. Buffalo Bills
The Patriots certainly have not looked like the Patriots over the past two weeks, but against the Bills this week, New England still has the third-highest implied team total on the Week 16 slate of 28.75 points. Buffalo ranks 10th in aFPA to WRs. Julian Edelman has dominated targets among Patriots wideouts, with 31 over the past three weeks. He also garnered 10 targets in the first game against Buffalo, avoiding the Bills' top cornerback. That makes any other Patriots WR a risk to start in Week 16, even with Josh Gordon suspended. We can't recommend Chris Hogan or Cardarrelle Patterson.
Week 10 at Green Bay Packers
The Patriots only have the eighth-highest implied team total of the Sunday slate at 26.5 points, a departure from their usual spot near the top of that weekly list. Perhaps some respect from the oddsmakers against this Titans defense, but Tennessee is only 28th in aFPA to WRs. However, Chris Hogan only has three targets over the past two weeks. He is not a fantasy starter at this point.
Week 8 vs. Green Bay Packers
In a showdown between Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers in Week 9, expect a lot of points. New England has a monster implied team total of 31.5 points, highest of the week. However, Chris Hogan is only averaging four targets per game. Even in a great match-up against Green Bay, ranked just 27th in aFPA to WRs, Hogan is too risky to start.
Week 8 at Buffalo Bills
The Patriots head to Buffalo Monday night to face a Bills team they've averaged 33.7 points against in their last three meetings. New England has also scored at least 38 points in each of its last four games and has a Week 8 implied team total of 29 points. Sony Michel will not play this week, which means the Patriots could be even more pass happy. However, Chris Hogan continues to be third or fourth in the fantasy pecking order in this offense. You have to consider him a touchdown-or-bust FLEX option in Week 8, and scoring is something he hasn't done since Week 2.
Week 6 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Patriots have the highest implied team total of Week 6 at 31.5 points. The Chiefs are bottom half in the league in aFPA to WRs. However, Chris Hogan has not seen more than four targets since Week 2. That's not enough usage to consider in starting lineups.
Week 5 vs. Indianapolis Colts (TNF)
The Patriots have the highest implied team total for Week 5 at 31 points, coming off a dominant performance against the Dolphins. Indy ranks just 13th in aFPA against WRs, but the Colts offense may have trouble moving the ball with a banged up O-Line and down its best pass-catcher in T.Y. Hilton. That could lead to even more possessions for the Patriots offense. However, with Julian Edelman back from suspension and only one target for Hogan last week, he cannot be trusted in Week 5. Keep him out of lineups.
Week 4 vs. Miami Dolphins
Patriots receivers have struggled to produce for fantasy purposes, to put it mildly. Chris Hogan has a good matchup on paper, with the Dolphins only ranked 22nd in aFPA to WRs, but he's simply not seeing enough targets to warrant confidence in starting lineups. He's failed to reach 50 yards in each game, making him touchdown dependent. And Hogan hasn't scored in his last three games against Miami. It's hard to stick with Hogan at this point.
Week 3 at Detroit Lions
The Patriots have the second-highest implied team total of 30 points for Week 3. New England traded for Josh Gordon this week, but he is likely to be worked in slowly, learning the offense and recovering from a hamstring injury. Julian Edelman is still suspended. Detroit has allowed three touchdowns to WRs through two weeks. Despite Hogan only having five targets each of the first two weeks, he's still no worse than a flex play in Week 3.
