Forecast Accuracy Report

The Importance of Looking Back & Keeping Score...

If you use a Fantasy source that doesn't carefully track and publish
week-to-week and year-to-year results, you could be asking for trouble.
As the old golfing adage goes, "If you're not keeping score, you're only practicing."

We certainly won't get them all. But, our process
provides you with a decision support tool that's measurable, objective and
consistently replicated. The methods are statistically sound and have been
validated on all NFL games going back to the mid-90's. With years of research, experience and results, we've
gained a high degree of confidence in our process.

Below we share a few highlights, present overall results and provide a link to all the actual and
forecast data to allow you to leverage the recap analysis as you see best.

Every week has it's share of upsets. In turn we have a number of
surprises in fantasy as well. On the plus side, we nailed a number of things
including...

1) Drew Brees would pass for over 300 yards passing yards (actual 396)

2) Philip Rivers would pass for fewer yards than his average (actual = 114 yards below average)

3) Ben Roethlisberger 25.5 fantasy points (actual 24.0)

4) Marshawn Lynch 64 rushing yards (actual 64)

5) DeSean Jackson would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 101 yards below average)

6) Aaron Rodgers 278 passing yards (actual 265)

7) Ryan Fitzpatrick 25.3 fantasy points (actual 25.1)

8) Jared Cook would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 84 yards below average)

9) Sam Bradford would pass for more yards than his average (actual = 36 yards above average)

10) Demaryius Thomas 58 receiving yards (actual 63)

11) Emmanuel Sanders would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 78 yards below average)

12) Randall Cobb would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 63 yards below average)

13) Bilal Powell 73 total yards (actual 73 yards)

14) Virgil Green would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 32 yards below average)

15) Terrelle Pryor would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 42 yards below average)

16) Ryan Tannehill would pass for more yards than his average (actual = 90 yards above average)

17) Kirk Cousins would pass for fewer yards than his average (actual = 39 yards below average)

18) T.Y. Hilton 5.3 receptions (actual = 5)

19) Case Keenum would pass for fewer yards than his average (actual = 84 yards below average)

20) Cole Beasley 44 receiving yards (actual 46)

21) Kenny Stills 65 receiving yards (actual 61)

22) DeAndre Hopkins 92 receiving yards (actual 86)

23) Jordan Reed 4.3 receptions (actual = 4)

24) Blake Bortles would pass for fewer yards than his average (actual = 122 yards below average)

25) Sammy Watkins 5.4 receptions (actual = 5)

26) Kelvin Benjamin 3.1 receptions (actual = 3)

27) Brandin Cooks would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 33 yards below average)

28) Davante Adams 11.2 fantasy points (actual 11.2)

29) Odell Beckham 11.4 fantasy points (actual 10.9)

30) Martavis Bryant 32 receiving yards (actual 30)

31) Eric Ebron 4.9 receptions (actual = 5)

32) Trey Burton 5.8 fantasy points (actual 5.5)

33) Jimmy Garoppolo projected pass TD 2.0 (actual 2)

34) John Brown 8.9 fantasy points (actual 8.6)

35) Willie Snead 37 receiving yards (actual 39)

36) Taylor Gabriel 3.6 fantasy points (actual 3.4)

37) Todd Gurley 107 rushing yards (actual 105)

38) Melvin Gordon would rush for more yards than his average (actual = 34 yards above average)

39) T.J. Yeldon 9.4 fantasy points (actual 9.0)

40) David Johnson 31 receiving yards (actual 30)

41) Jamison Crowder 4.0 receptions (actual = 4)

42) Devin Funchess 4.2 receptions (actual = 4)

43) Maxx Williams would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 27 yards below average)

44) Jesse James would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 92 yards below average)

45) Derrick Henry 55 total yards (actual 57 yards)

46) Alex Collins 70 total yards (actual 74 yards)

47) Jordan Howard 13.8 fantasy points (actual 14.1)

48) Michael Thomas would have a 100 yard receiving game (actual 129)

49) Rashard Higgins 3.3 fantasy points (actual 3.2)

50) Austin Hooper 3.3 receptions (actual = 3)

51) Tyreek Hill would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 79 yards below average)

52) Deshaun Watson 25.4 fantasy points (actual 25.0)

53) Mitch Trubisky 220 passing yards (actual 220)

54) Patrick Mahomes 306 passing yards (actual 314)

55) Alvin Kamara 19.6 fantasy points (actual 19.0)

56) Kareem Hunt 16.1 fantasy points (actual 16.4)

57) JuJu Smith-Schuster 11.3 fantasy points (actual 11.6)

58) Dede Westbrook would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 36 yards below average)

59) David Njoku 36 receiving yards (actual 36)

60) Kenny Golladay would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 49 yards below average)

61) Ricky Seals-Jones 32 receiving yards (actual 35)

62) Keelan Cole would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 45 yards below average)

63) Eric Tomlinson 14 receiving yards (actual 14)

64) Josh Allen would fail to reach 200 yards passing yards (actual 196)

65) Courtland Sutton 36 receiving yards (actual 37)

66) Michael Gallup 18 receiving yards (actual 17)

67) Will Dissly would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 70 yards below average)

Below we track how well our "A-Game", "B-Game" and "C-Game" players did last week.
We also track how we're doing for the entire season. In fact, we've been monitoring our weekly Fantasy Impact Rating accuracy for the past 15 years.

QB Projected Impact Week 3 2018 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 276 2.2 288 2.2 257 1.8
4for4 B-Game 265 1.5 273 1.8 213 1.2
4for4 C-Game 175 1.0 176 0.9 174 0.9
RB Projected Impact Week 3 2018 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 119 0.6 104 0.8 112 0.8
4for4 B-Game 59 0.6 71 0.4 90 0.5
4for4 C-Game 47 0.3 44 0.3 31 0.2
WR Projected Impact Week 3 2018 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 84 0.3 87 0.4 85 0.6
4for4 B-Game 59 0.5 72 0.5 62 0.4
4for4 C-Game 48 0.5 45 0.4 38 0.3

To see a report with all prior week Yardage and TD actuals and predictions, click here.

Filed Under: 2018, w4