Forecast Accuracy Report

The Importance of Looking Back & Keeping Score...

If you use a Fantasy source that doesn't carefully track and publish
week-to-week and year-to-year results, you could be asking for trouble.
As the old golfing adage goes, "If you're not keeping score, you're only practicing."

We certainly won't get them all. But, our process
provides you with a decision support tool that's measurable, objective and
consistently replicated. The methods are statistically sound and have been
validated on all NFL games going back to the mid-90's. With years of research, experience and results, we've
gained a high degree of confidence in our process.

Below we share a few highlights, present overall results and provide a link to all the actual and
forecast data to allow you to leverage the recap analysis as you see best.

Every week has it's share of upsets. In turn we have a number of
surprises in fantasy as well. On the plus side, we nailed a number of things
including...

1) Eli Manning 233 passing yards (actual 224)

2) Drew Brees would pass for over 300 yards passing yards (actual 439)

3) Joe Flacco 235 passing yards (actual 236)

4) Marshawn Lynch 10.4 fantasy points (actual 10.9)

5) Vernon Davis would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 37 yards below average)

6) Larry Fitzgerald 75 receiving yards (actual 76)

7) Delanie Walker 49 receiving yards (actual 52)

8) Matthew Stafford 277 passing yards (actual 286)

9) Alex Smith 243 passing yards (actual 255)

10) Demaryius Thomas 65 receiving yards (actual 63)

11) LeGarrette Blount would rush for fewer yards than his average (actual = 59 yards below average)

12) Rob Gronkowski projected receiving TDs 0.9 (actual 1)

13) Antonio Brown 101 receiving yards (actual 93)

14) A.J. Green 87 receiving yards (actual 92)

15) Andy Dalton would pass for more yards than his average (actual = 36 yards above average)

16) Kirk Cousins projected pass TD 1.8 (actual 2)

17) Lamar Miller 11.4 fantasy points (actual 10.9)

18) Mohamed Sanu 3.9 receptions (actual = 4)

19) T.Y. Hilton 5.4 receptions (actual = 5)

20) Case Keenum 19.7 fantasy points (actual 19.2)

21) Kenny Stills 4.0 receptions (actual = 4)

22) Latavius Murray 40 rushing yards (actual 42)

23) C.J. Anderson would rush for fewer yards than his average (actual = 31 yards below average)

24) Carlos Hyde 69 rushing yards (actual 62)

25) Brandin Cooks 9.0 fantasy points (actual 9.3)

26) Davante Adams 5.0 receptions (actual = 5)

27) Adam Thielen 9.8 fantasy points (actual 10.2)

28) Todd Gurley 19.5 fantasy points (actual 20.7)

29) Melvin Gordon 15.8 fantasy points (actual 16.6)

30) Jay Ajayi 63 rushing yards (actual 62)

31) J.J. Nelson would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 36 yards below average)

32) Tyrell Williams 6.4 fantasy points (actual 6.8)

33) Jared Goff projected pass TD 1.8 (actual 2)

34) Christian McCaffrey would rush for more yards than his average (actual = 23 yards above average)

35) Cooper Kupp 53 receiving yards (actual 52)

36) Trent Taylor 30 receiving yards (actual 28)

37) Keelan Cole 54 receiving yards (actual 54)

Below we track how well our "A-Game", "B-Game" and "C-Game" players did last week.
We also track how we're doing for the entire season. In fact, we've been monitoring our weekly Fantasy Impact Rating accuracy for the past 15 years.

QB Projected Impact Week 1 2018 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 280 1.9 280 1.9 257 1.8
4for4 B-Game 253 1.5 253 1.5 213 1.2
4for4 C-Game 149 0.7 149 0.7 174 0.9
RB Projected Impact Week 1 2018 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 121 1.2 121 1.2 112 0.8
4for4 B-Game 79 0.4 79 0.4 90 0.5
4for4 C-Game 45 0.3 45 0.3 31 0.2
WR Projected Impact Week 1 2018 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 109 0.5 109 0.5 85 0.6
4for4 B-Game 83 0.6 83 0.6 62 0.4
4for4 C-Game 38 0.3 38 0.3 38 0.3

To see a report with all prior week Yardage and TD actuals and predictions, click here.

Filed Under: 2018, w2