Forecast Accuracy Report

The Importance of Looking Back & Keeping Score...

If you use a Fantasy source that doesn't carefully track and publish
week-to-week and year-to-year results, you could be asking for trouble.
As the old golfing adage goes, "If you're not keeping score, you're only practicing."

We certainly won't get them all. But, our process
provides you with a decision support tool that's measurable, objective and
consistently replicated. The methods are statistically sound and have been
validated on all NFL games going back to the mid-90's. With years of research, experience and results, we've
gained a high degree of confidence in our process.

Below we share a few highlights, present overall results and provide a link to all the actual and
forecast data to allow you to leverage the recap analysis as you see best.

Every week has it's share of upsets. In turn we have a number of
surprises in fantasy as well. On the plus side, we nailed a number of things
including...

1) Drew Brees would pass for more yards than his average (actual = 64 yards above average)

2) Ben Roethlisberger 26.5 fantasy points (actual 27.6)

3) Matt Ryan would pass for fewer yards than his average (actual = 69 yards below average)

4) Larry Fitzgerald 51 receiving yards (actual 53)

5) Antonio Gates 22 receiving yards (actual 21)

6) DeSean Jackson would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 44 yards below average)

7) Danny Amendola 41 receiving yards (actual 40)

8) Jimmy Graham 3.4 receptions (actual = 3)

9) Andrew Luck projected pass TD 2.1 (actual 2)

10) Kirk Cousins 22.6 fantasy points (actual 22.2)

11) Russell Wilson 269 passing yards (actual 271)

12) Cole Beasley 5.2 fantasy points (actual 5.0)

13) Keenan Allen 4.9 receptions (actual = 5)

14) Robert Woods 5.7 receptions (actual = 6)

15) DeAndre Hopkins 95 receiving yards (actual 104)

16) Davante Adams 13.9 fantasy points (actual 13.1)

17) Donte Moncrief 40 receiving yards (actual 43)

18) Jarvis Landry 8.2 fantasy points (actual 7.8)

19) John Brown 30 receiving yards (actual 27)

20) Bennie Fowler 27 receiving yards (actual 26)

21) Adam Thielen 75 receiving yards (actual 80)

22) Tyler Lockett 9.7 fantasy points (actual 9.9)

23) Chris Conley 3.2 receptions (actual = 3)

24) Jared Goff would pass for fewer yards than his average (actual = 89 yards below average)

25) Derrick Henry 16.1 fantasy points (actual 15.2)

26) Jordan Howard 72 total yards (actual 70 yards)

27) Austin Hooper 37 receiving yards (actual 36)

28) Tyreek Hill 77 receiving yards (actual 74)

29) Robby Anderson would have more reception yardage than his average (actual = 91 yards above average)

30) Mitch Trubisky 246 passing yards (actual 246)

31) Christian McCaffrey 18.7 fantasy points (actual 17.8)

32) Dede Westbrook 47 receiving yards (actual 45)

33) Chris Godwin 43 receiving yards (actual 39)

34) Gerald Everett 4.6 fantasy points (actual 4.4)

35) George Kittle 73 receiving yards (actual 74)

36) Chris Carson 111 total yards (actual 116 yards)

37) Baker Mayfield 270 passing yards (actual 284)

38) Sam Darnold would pass for more yards than his average (actual = 127 yards above average)

39) Michael Gallup 3.4 receptions (actual = 3)

40) Jeff Wilson would rush for fewer yards than his average (actual = 34 yards below average)

Below we track how well our "A-Game", "B-Game" and "C-Game" players did last week.
We also track how we're doing for the entire season. In fact, we've been monitoring our weekly Fantasy Impact Rating accuracy for the past 15 years.

QB Projected Impact Week 16 2018 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 286 2.1 285 2.0 257 1.8
4for4 B-Game 271 1.7 251 1.6 213 1.2
4for4 C-Game 156 0.7 191 1.0 174 0.9
RB Projected Impact Week 16 2018 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 94 0.7 113 0.9 112 0.8
4for4 B-Game 87 0.8 79 0.6 90 0.5
4for4 C-Game 40 0.2 40 0.2 31 0.2
WR Projected Impact Week 16 2018 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 96 0.6 87 0.5 85 0.6
4for4 B-Game 79 0.4 65 0.4 62 0.4
4for4 C-Game 41 0.2 41 0.3 38 0.3

To see a report with all prior week Yardage and TD actuals and predictions, click here.

Filed Under: 2018, w17