Forecast Accuracy Report

The Importance of Looking Back & Keeping Score...

If you use a Fantasy source that doesn't carefully track and publish
week-to-week and year-to-year results, you could be asking for trouble.
As the old golfing adage goes, "If you're not keeping score, you're only practicing."

We certainly won't get them all. But, our process
provides you with a decision support tool that's measurable, objective and
consistently replicated. The methods are statistically sound and have been
validated on all NFL games going back to the mid-90's. With years of research, experience and results, we've
gained a high degree of confidence in our process.

Below we share a few highlights, present overall results and provide a link to all the actual and
forecast data to allow you to leverage the recap analysis as you see best.

Every week has it's share of upsets. In turn we have a number of
surprises in fantasy as well. On the plus side, we nailed a number of things
including...

1) Eli Manning 303 passing yards (actual 297)

2) Matt Ryan would pass for over 300 yards passing yards (actual 377)

3) Tom Brady projected pass TD 2.0 (actual 2)

4) Frank Gore 62 rushing yards (actual 67)

5) DeSean Jackson would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 54 yards below average)

6) Aaron Rodgers would pass for fewer yards than his average (actual = 109 yards below average)

7) Golden Tate 4.0 receptions (actual = 4)

8) Jimmy Graham 31 receiving yards (actual 34)

9) Julio Jones would have a 100 yard receiving game (actual 147)

10) Cam Newton 250 passing yards (actual 256)

11) Andrew Luck would pass for over 300 yards passing yards (actual 343)

12) Russell Wilson 22.4 fantasy points (actual 22.0)

13) T.Y. Hilton 12.6 fantasy points (actual 12.5)

14) Jarius Wright 24 receiving yards (actual 25)

15) Josh Gordon 70 receiving yards (actual 70)

16) Zach Ertz 80 receiving yards (actual 91)

17) Blake Bortles would fail to reach 200 yards passing yards (actual 127)

18) Derek Carr projected pass TD 1.1 (actual 1)

19) Isaiah Crowell 60 total yards (actual 60 yards)

20) Mike Evans 5.9 receptions (actual = 6)

21) Davante Adams 12.9 fantasy points (actual 12.9)

22) John Brown would have less reception yardage than his average (actual = 37 yards below average)

23) Taylor Gabriel 45 receiving yards (actual 49)

24) Cameron Brate 3.0 receptions (actual = 3)

25) Marcus Mariota would pass for more yards than his average (actual = 127 yards above average)

26) Melvin Gordon 68 total yards (actual 66 yards)

27) T.J. Yeldon would rush for fewer yards than his average (actual = 22 yards below average)

28) Nick Boyle 19 receiving yards (actual 19)

29) Adam Humphries 52 receiving yards (actual 54)

30) Ezekiel Elliott 134 total yards (actual 143 yards)

31) Sterling Shepard 3.9 receptions (actual = 4)

32) Austin Hooper 5.0 receptions (actual = 5)

33) Nick Vannett 24 receiving yards (actual 22)

34) Joe Mixon 15.7 fantasy points (actual 15.5)

35) James Conner 41 receiving yards (actual 42)

36) Matt Breida 14.8 fantasy points (actual 14.0)

37) Baker Mayfield 266 passing yards (actual 258)

38) Saquon Barkley 143 total yards (actual 142 yards)

39) Christian Kirk 3.7 receptions (actual = 4)

40) Jason Croom 17 receiving yards (actual 16)

Below we track how well our "A-Game", "B-Game" and "C-Game" players did last week.
We also track how we're doing for the entire season. In fact, we've been monitoring our weekly Fantasy Impact Rating accuracy for the past 15 years.

QB Projected Impact Week 12 2018 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 296 2.2 292 2.1 257 1.8
4for4 B-Game 182 1.5 257 1.7 213 1.2
4for4 C-Game 210 1.3 195 1.1 174 0.9
RB Projected Impact Week 12 2018 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 135 0.8 121 1.0 112 0.8
4for4 B-Game 86 0.8 78 0.6 90 0.5
4for4 C-Game 31 0.2 40 0.2 31 0.2
WR Projected Impact Week 12 2018 Last 15 Seasons
Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs Total Yards Total TDs
4for4 A-Game 92 0.3 90 0.6 85 0.6
4for4 B-Game 97 0.7 65 0.4 62 0.4
4for4 C-Game 35 0.4 42 0.3 38 0.3

To see a report with all prior week Yardage and TD actuals and predictions, click here.

Filed Under: 2018, w13