Let's say I have Leonard Fournette ranked at #15 overall on my customized list and his ADP is #27. It is my turn to pick in the 2nd round with the #20 overall pick, which means my next pick is #29 in a 12-team league. So he may be gone by the next pick or he may still be available - it's close. Do I reach for him with the #20 pick, pass on him, or make my decision based on what other RBs I guess might still be available at the #29 pick?
Lots of good points here, including experts and predicting the future. Not everyone drafts according to ADP so you can't always go by that to a tee.
If you like him, and he's there, I'd take him. Based on his name, I would say there isn't much of a chance he's there when you'd pick again. Now, I don't know that I'd take him if there were a bunch of other RBs on the board who were right in that range that I also like (here's where value comes in), unless this is a keeper league and that was part of your plan to keep him for the future. So, for me, it also depends who else is on the board. But there's nothing wrong with liking a guy and "reaching" at that point, even though I don't think it's really a reach if you're pretty sure the guy will be gone by your next pick. It's only a reach of you pass on someone way better - but even then who is to say that's the case. Always go with your gut...
I agree with the last response. If you have him at #15 then you should take him. If there are others using custom rankings then they possibly have him high on their board as well and will take him before it gets around to you again for pick #29. You don't want to see him having a great season only to regret not making the pick based off of your rankings.
My customized ranking is indeed based on someone else's (i.e. projected stats), so the dilemma is not really a matter of going with my gut, it is a matter of trying to get the most value out of my draft picks. I have to assume that my customized rankings will outperform the rest (i.e. ADP), otherwise I would not be using them. So the question relates to whether I should reach based on my rankings, or try to maximize value by picking someone else and gambling that Fournette, in this example, is still available closer to his ADP by the time my next pick comes around.
If you have him ranked as #15 I would personally go for it. People get so caught up in expert rankings. Experts can't predict the future. The only way to truly judge how good of a fantasy owner you are is to go with your gut. Do you want to run your team or do you want expert rankings to run your team? That is the way I look at it. Plus, if you are right and it works out for you then there is much more satisfaction because you went with your gut, not someone else's.
