Apparently I'm still up in arms about this.
I was going through TJ's QB regression candidates, and the number 1 negative regression guy was none other than Marcus Mariota. Yet one of the 2 main reasons he's all the way up at 5th QB (in addition to his leap of 35 yards/game) is his touchdown rate per comp and attempt are really sky high. He's in Rodgers territory for TD/Att, and has surpassed him in TD/Comp.
I don't mean to clog up this channel with this, but it does have a bearing on how I draft my QB-heavy leagues, and I don't know of any forum that might address this.
Is there somewhere else I can post this and have it answered?
You can try tweeting at John and/or T.J. They're usually pretty good about responding.
From John's information on him:
In his first 27 NFL games, Mariota has averaged 17.7 fantasy points per game, which would have extrapolated to about what Dak Prescott scored last year as the league’s #6 fantasy quarterback. When his six-attempt game against the Patriots (from his rookie year) is removed, his average jumps to 18.3 FP. With the addition of Corey Davis, the #5 overall pick and an instant upgrade over Tajae Sharpe, Mariota now has Davis, Rishard Matthews, Delanie Walker and another draft pick, likely slot receiver Taywan Taylor, to throw to. Mariota looks like a very good value in the 9th round.
Looks like that was written before Decker too.
I think Mariota is great value if he lasts into sleeper territory. That means, I'm going to grab him at the back end of the middle rounds if he's there and if I didn't grab a QB early. However, I'm probably not taking him with an early pick.
Hope that helps!
