Hey Guys,
This is my third year as a subscriber, and I've been quite happy with your projections for the most part. My only qualm was that you seem to overly favor running QB's (Russell Wilson/Cam Newton).
That brings me to this year's ranking of Mariota. 5th. I don't understand where in the world you're coming up with this projection.
Looking at the stats, you're expecting a 35 y/g increase, while keeping rushing yards about the same. Yet the work by your colleague TJ Hernandez on stat correlation from year to year indicates you should trust the y/g stat way more than rushing stats.
Unless you think adding Eric Decker will add an expectation of 35 y/g, that needs to drop way down, and his season yardage should be more like 3650, putting him somewhere around #13.
I very much respect you folks and your analysis, but this may be a weakness in your yearly rankings. If you have good reasoning for ranking him this way that takes into account the above, I would love to hear it. Thank you.
Yeah, Mariota seems a bit risky to me, coming off the leg injury and all. However, after Week 3 last year, Mariota really stepped it up and had a nice stretch there where he was one of the best fantasy quarterbacks available.
I don't do the projections, but I think the thought-process is that some natural progression in his third season, combined with the dual-threat ability he brings to the table, and the new weapons he got, should translate into more production, or at least more consistent production. Don't forget, in addition to Decker, the Titans added a bevy of pass catchers in the draft in Taywan Taylor (an underrated slot receiver), Jonnu Smith at TE, and first rounder Corey Davis on the outside. The offensive line is getting more experienced and they have a good 1-2 punch in the running game to support him. If he stays healthy, I think Mariota should be more consistent than he was last season and a nice option in all leagues.
