The upside on Patrick Mahomes is pretty obvious. He finished last season with the most fantasy points by a quarterback ever (while also finishing first overall in all positions in 2019). He had a ridiculous year, throwing for over 5,000 yards with 50 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions. He threw for over 300 yards in 10 games while also having 10 games of 3+ passing touchdowns. He even had seven games with more than four passing touchdowns.
The big question mark facing Mahomes and the Chiefs this season is the status of Tyreek Hill. He will likely face some sort of suspension from the league, and his absence would greatly impact Mahomes’ value. Even with Hill facing no punishment, there’s a likely chance we see some sort of regression from Mahomes. It’s incredibly difficult to keep up the same production he had in 2018. But if Hill misses time, there will no doubt be a regression. Hill is key to what the Chiefs do on offense as only one other receiver on the team had over 500 receiving yards in 2018.
2019 Bottom Line
Even if Hill misses time, Mahomes should be fine. It would hurt his value, no doubt, but Mahomes is too good to fall off by the absence of one player. He should be viewed as the top quarterback option this season. He was so consistently productive a season ago, that it’s hard to see him taking a hard fall in 2019.