• Patrick Mahomes
  • QB
  • , Kansas City Chiefs
  • 24
  • 0 lbs
  • 0' 0"
PtsPaYdsPaTDIntRuYds
41550975012272

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Draft note
by John Paulsen
All Mahomes did in his first season as the starter was post the greatest fantasy season in the history of the league. Sure, he’s bound to regress some, but he has room to regress and still be the fantasy QB1 in 2019. Other than Mahomes, there have been 15 seasons since 2000 where a quarterback has averaged 8.5+ yards per attempt on a minimum of 300 attempts. Collectively, those quarterbacks averaged 8.87 YPA. In the following season, they averaged 7.69 YPA, a 13.4% drop. Every single quarterback experienced regression, though some were more drastic than others. Mahomes’ situation (surrounding talent, coaching staff) haven’t changed, so he has a good chance to post another great fantasy season. It just may not be historic.

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Scouting report

by Jordan Heck

KC QB Patrick Mahomes - 2019 Fantasy Football Outlook

Fantasy Upside

The upside on Patrick Mahomes is pretty obvious. He finished last season with the most fantasy points by a quarterback ever (while also finishing first overall in all positions in 2019). He had a ridiculous year, throwing for over 5,000 yards with 50 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions. He threw for over 300 yards in 10 games while also having 10 games of 3+ passing touchdowns. He even had seven games with more than four passing touchdowns.

Fantasy Downside

The big question mark facing Mahomes and the Chiefs this season is the status of Tyreek Hill. He will likely face some sort of suspension from the league, and his absence would greatly impact Mahomes’ value. Even with Hill facing no punishment, there’s a likely chance we see some sort of regression from Mahomes. It’s incredibly difficult to keep up the same production he had in 2018. But if Hill misses time, there will no doubt be a regression. Hill is key to what the Chiefs do on offense as only one other receiver on the team had over 500 receiving yards in 2018.

2019 Bottom Line

Even if Hill misses time, Mahomes should be fine. It would hurt his value, no doubt, but Mahomes is too good to fall off by the absence of one player. He should be viewed as the top quarterback option this season. He was so consistently productive a season ago, that it’s hard to see him taking a hard fall in 2019.

2019 Strength of Schedule - KC
W1W2W3W4W5W6W7W8W9W10W11W12W13W14W15W16W17
9
@JAX
23
@OAK
7
BAL
18
@DET
14
IND
30
HOU
6
@DEN
17
GB
8
MIN
11
@TEN
3
@LAC
BYE23
OAK
26
@NE
6
DEN
2
@CHI
3
LAC

Schedule difficulty based on schedule-adjusted, positional defensive ranking. Top DEF = 1, bottom DEF = 32.

2019 Game Stats
WkOppCompAttPaYdsPaTDIntYPAYPRRuAttYdsTDFumYPCPtsSnaps%
1@LAC1527256409.4817.07521004.2028.356/56100.0%
2@PIT23283266011.6414.17518003.6038.858/58100.0%
3SF2438314308.2613.0857001.4025.376/76100.0%
4@DEN2845304106.7610.8637102.3322.978/78100.0%
5JAX2238313028.2414.23413103.2515.870/70100.0%
6@NE2336352429.7815.3029004.5027.054/54100.0%
7CIN2839358419.1812.794450011.2532.870/70100.0%
8DEN2434303418.9112.622-100-0.5026.058/58100.0%
9@CLE23323753111.7216.30218009.0026.864/64100.0%
10ARI2128249208.8911.86421005.2520.159/59100.0%
11@LAR33464786310.3914.48628024.6735.972/72100.0%
12BYE---------------
13@OAK2338295407.7612.83952005.7833.071/71100.0%
14BAL3553377217.1110.772-300-1.5020.886/86100.0%
15LAC2434243207.1510.1223001.5018.060/60100.0%
16@SEA2340273306.8211.873330011.0026.261/61100.0%
17OAK14242812111.7120.0721000.5017.341/5475.9%
Per game23.9436.25318.563.130.758.7913.313.7517.000.130.134.5325.9464.63/65.4498.50%
Totals383580509750128.7913.3160272224.53415.081034/104798.50%