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Saturday, June 16, 2018, 2:05pm
Dion Lewis saw a career-high 36 percent of the offensive reps in New England last season. With injury concerns and size limitations, there will likely be a cap on Lewis' workload. But he still could match or even surpass his workload from last season and still leave plenty on the bone for Henry.
Last season, DeMarco Murray claimed 63 percent of offensive snaps to Derrick Henry's 40. A reasonable June estimate for 2018 would be a similar workflow, with Henry getting about 60 percent and Lewis 40 percent.
Our projections currently have Lewis at 180 carries and 44 receptions, 51 percent of the touches projected between Henry and him. Last season, Henry saw 187 touches. So even though our projection for him is only 49 percent of the touches between Lewis and him, it is still a total of 209 touches, an increase from last season. We expect Lewis to get the bulk of the receptions out of this backfield, making him more valuable in PPR formats. Also working in the Titans' backfield's favor, the entire starting offensive line returns from last season.
Posted by Dale Lolley
Tuesday, July 31, 2018 - 8:10pm
Derrick Henry saw his rushing numbers jump considerably last season as he went from 490 yards as a rookie to 744 in his second season. And he doesn't have a similar back in DeMarco Murray to share time with this season. He's a big (6-foot-3, 244 pounds) back with power, who also has surprising speed for a player his size. Henry also works behind a solid offensive line and should get the majority of the goal-line touches this season.
The Titans just don't seem to like the idea of making Henry a guy who will get 300 touches. He did see his carries go from 110 two years ago to 176 last season. Even though Murray is now gone, he'll be splitting time with Dion Lewis.
2018 Bottom Line
If Henry's carries top 200 this season, which isn't a stretch, his value rises to a guy who should put up 900+ yards. He's not going to give you much in the passing game, though. A season with 225 total touches isn't a crazy projection. Lewis will be drafted higher because of his pass-catching ability. But Henry should get the goal-line producer. He's scored five times on the ground in each of his first two seasons. I could see eight scores this season rushing. That puts him in RB2/RB3 range. His current fourth/fifth-round ADP is very high. In fact, he's being taken higher than Lewis by a full two rounds. Lewis, however, has a lengthy injury history, which could play into Henry's favor. I don't know that I'd bite where his current ADP has him, but I'd certainly take him in Round 6.
2018 Strength of Schedule - TEN
Schedule difficulty based on schedule-adjusted, positional defensive ranking. Top DEF = 1, bottom DEF = 32.
2017 Game Stats
|Per game||11.00||46.50||0.31||0||4.23||0.69||8.50||0.06||1.06||12.36||7.75||8.44||25.69/64.00||40.22% |