Week 17 vs Buccaneers
Atlanta's running game turned into both a mystery and a mess. The Falcons had extreme trouble running the football in the second half of the season and get one more game against the top rush defense in the league. Smith was held to just 24 yards in Week 15 against Tampa. He's not a recommended play if you're playing for a championship this week. It's just a poor matchup and Smith's ceiling is capped by the other backs in Atlanta.
Week 16 vs Chiefs
Ito Smith is now the lead back in Atlanta, and that comes from interim head coach Raheem Morris. The usage of both backs in recent weeks tells the same story. Smith played nearly half of the snaps against the Buccaneers, while Gurley only played a quarter. All that being said, no Atlanta running back is trustworthy here in Week 16.
Week 15 vs Buccaneers
Smith played six more snaps and saw four more touches than Todd Gurley in Week 14. However, it's still a near split between the two backs, and each caps the other's ceiling. Both Smith and Gurley are just inside the top 40 and are very risky playoff plays against the Buccaneers run defense.
Week 13 vs Saints
While Brian Hill saw ten more snaps and one more rushing attempt, Smith saw five passing targets to Hill's one. Smith also scored a touchdown and had ten more yards than Hill against the Raiders. It's a good old-fashioned RBBC in Atlanta.
Week 7 at Los Angeles Rams
This matchup has the potential to turn into a shootout. This game has the highest over/under (54.5) of the week. 4for4’s rankings expert John Paulsen has Smith ranked as the RB43. Smith is a touchdown-dependent start. The Rams are tenth-best against running backs, per our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric.
Week 6 at Arizona Cardinals
In Week 5, Smith had five rushing attempts for 19 yards and six receptions for 45 yards. Devonta Freeman out-touched Smith 16 to 11 and out-snapped him 40 to 35. Smith’s increased usage in the passing game is encouraging because Atlanta’s defense continues to hemorrhage points. The Falcons have trailed on 75% of offensive snaps, which is only behind the Dolphins, 92.8%, per Graham Barfield.
The offenses playing against Arizona average the sixth-most plays per game, per Evan Silva and this game has the second-highest over/under (51). 4for4’s rankings expert John Paulsen has Smith ranked as the half PPR RB40. Smith is a touchdown-dependent start.
Week 5 at Houston Texans
In Week 4, Devonta Freeman out-touched Smith 20 to 4 and out-snapped him 50 to 30. Smith is the RB2 in Atlanta and not worth a starting spot in fantasy lineups.
Week 4 vs. Tennessee Titans
Smith’s Week 3 game log requires context. He had one rushing attempt for zero yards but only played on three snaps before leaving the game with a concussion.
The Titans are average against running backs as shown by our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric that has them ranked 14th best in the NFL. 4for4’s rankings expert John Paulsen has Smith as the RB45. Smith was limited in practice on Thursday but appears to be on track to play. Fantasy owners should look elsewhere for flex viable options.
Week 3 at Indianapolis Colts
In Week 2, Ito Smith finished with four rushing attempts for 32 yards and two receptions for 13 yards. He finished as the RB44 with 5.5 Half PPR fantasy points. Smith was out-snapped by Devonta Freeman 62% to 38% and out-touched 14 to 6.
Smith will face the Colts in Week 3 who could be without Pierre Desir, Jabaal Sheard, Kemoko Turay, and Darius Leonard. Be sure to monitor these injuries closely on Sunday morning. The Colts are above average against running backs, as shown by our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric has them ranked ninth-best in the NFL, but injuries could open up opportunities for Smith. 4for4 rankings expert John Paulsen has Smith ranked as the Half PPR RB43.
Week 2 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Smith had six rushing attempts for 31 yards and one reception for nine yards. He finished as the RB51 with 4.5 Half PPR fantasy points. Smith played on 50% off snaps, which was alarming for Devonta Freeman owners. Some of this may have been caused by the Vikings taking a commanding 28-0 lead in the third quarter but it is worth monitoring going forward.
Smith will face the Eagles in Week 2 and they are average against running backs. Our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric has them ranked 16th best in the NFL. 4for4 rankings expert John Paulsen has Smith ranked as the Half PPR RB45. Fantasy owners should have better starting options.
