Week 9 vs. Minnesota Vikings
J.D. McKissic ran the ball twice for six yards last week, and caught three passes for 14 yards on five targets. McKissic averaged 4.8 receptions for 30.5 yards in the four games before Brian Robinson returned, and has averaged 2.0 receptions for 12.8 yards in the four games since. Washington has been utilizing Antonio Gibson out of the backfield more with Robinson handling ground duties, leaving scraps left for McKissic. There just aren't enough touches for McKissic at this point to make him someone worth playing in fantasy.
Week 8 at Indianapolis Colts
J.D. McKissic played a season-low 16% of the offensive snaps last week, and it showed in the box score. He ran the ball just once for four yards and had no receptions on two targets. This now makes back-to-back games with no receptions for McKissic, which has been the only reason he's been relevant in fantasy in recent years. Unless something changes, McKissic is droppable in fantasy.
Week 7 vs. Green Bay Packers
J.D. McKissic ran the ball twice last week for 20 yards. He saw three targets out of the backfield, but surprisingly finished with no receptions. With Brian Robinson starting, and Washington playing in a close game, McKissic ended up playing a season-low 30% of the offensive snaps. As we've mentioned before, McKissic's role relies heavily on game flow. Many of his productive games actually come on just two offensive drives where he catches a handful of passes in hurry-up offense. McKissic isn't much more than a desperation flex play in PPR formats for Week 7.
Week 6 at Chicago Bears
J.D. McKissic maintained his usual role as a receiving back, proving that the return of Brian Robinson won't impact him as much. McKissic saw seven targets in Week 5, finishing 5-37 (with no carries). McKissic is fourth among running backs this season in receptions (24) while averaging 44.8 scrimmage yards with no touchdowns. He's very reliant on game scripts, but luckily for him, the Commanders aren't great, so the game script goes McKissic's way more often than not. He'll be an RB3/flex play in PPR formats in Week 6.
Week 5 vs. Tennessee Titans
J.D. McKissic saw a season-high eight rush attempts last week, finishing with 40 yards on the ground. In his usual role as a receiving back, McKissic finished just 3-16 on four targets, despite a favorable game script. As we mentioned last week, McKissic's role is very volatile. On weeks where he has high receptions, it's usually due to a single hurry-up drive where he just catches 3-4 dump off passes. We should also mention that there's a chance Brian Robinson returns in Week 5, although we'd project that impacts Antonio Gibson more than it does McKissic. Either way, McKissic will be a risky option as his production heavily relies on the game script going his way. He's not much more than a desperation flex play in Week 5.
Week 4 at Dallas Cowboys
J.D. McKissic has been keeping up his receiving role in this Washington offense. Through three games he's finished 3-20, 7-54 and 6-32 as a receiver. Last week he saw a season-high nine targets, but seven of those targets came on Washington's final two drives of the game. He's a very situational player who is very reliant on game flow. Plus his production is really only valuable in full PPR formats since he hasn't found the end zone all season. He gets a fairly tough matchup against the Cowboys this week. McKissic is avoidable in standard, a desperation flex in half-PPR and a low-end flex option in full PPR for Week 4.
Week 3 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
J.D. McKissic looked like his past self in Week 2, seeing seven targets. He hauled in every target, finishing 7-54 while adding nine yards on three carries. McKissic will always be a somewhat unreliable option as his usage relies heavily on game flow. For instance, four of his 10 touches came in a seven-play span on Washington's second-to-last drive of the game. He's not much more than a low-end flex play this week, only really viable in PPR formats.
Week 2 at Detroit Lions
J.D. McKissic finished with six touches (3 car., 3 rec.) for 28 scrimmage yards in Week 1. McKissic still had a decent role in the offense, playing on 40% of the offensive snaps. But Antonio Gibson saw eight targets. It's only one game, but it seems Washington may be transitioning more to Gibson over McKissic as a receiving threat, which was really McKissic's only value in fantasy. If McKissic loses any receptions, he won't have much value. He gets a favorable matchup vs. the Lions in Week 2, but he may not have enough touches to be worth playing. He'd be a desperation flex play in PPR leagues at best for Week 2.
Week 1 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
J.D. McKissic wasn't quite as dominant last season as he was when he had a wild 80 receptions in 2020. But McKissic was still involved enough as a receiver to make him relevant to PPR leagues in fantasy. And with Brian Robinson sidelined, we'd expect Washington to revert to the same formula they had with Antonio Gibson and McKissic last season. McKissic still averaged 3.9 receptions for 36.1 yards last year with around 20 yards on the ground. That's close to what we're projecting for him this week, which would make him a decent flex play in PPR and half-PPR leagues.
2022 Fantasy Upside
J.D. McKissic didn’t go anywhere last season as he retained a solid role in Washington’s offense. His overall numbers are down, but that’s mostly because he played in five less games due to injury. When he was active, McKissic had a strong role as a receiving back averaging 3.9 receptions for 36.1 yards per game, and even added an additional 20 yards per game on the ground. He was 13th in the league in total receptions by a running back, and has the 3rd-most receptions at the position in the past two seasons. He returned to Washington after briefly agreeing to play for the Bills, but the Commanders matched Buffalo’s offer, proving this team wants to keep him around. McKissic should see a similar role for Washington in 2022.
2022 Fantasy Downside
McKissic does return to Washington, but he joins a more crowded backfield. The Commanders added Brian Robinson in the third round of this year’s draft. And while Robinson wasn’t a major receiving threat at Alabama, it’s worrying whenever a backup running back such as McKissic sees any amount of snaps taken away from them. He’s also a 29-year-old back who hasn’t topped 1,000 scrimmage yards or scored more than four touchdowns in a season.
2022 Bottom Line
McKissic offers very little value in standard leagues since he doesn’t find the end zone often. And it’s unlikely he scores much more with the arrival of Robinson. But McKissic should maintain his role as a receiving back since Robinson doesn’t offer much competition there. McKissic went from 5.0 receptions per game in 2020 to 3.9 in 2021, and we currently project him to have less than 3.0 receptions heading into this year. He should be viewed as an RB3 in half and full PPR leagues.
