Week 16 at Los Angeles Rams
Marlon Mack has quietly emerged as a legitimate factor in the Broncos' offense. He has only seen seven targets and eight carries over the past two weeks, but he has six receptions in that timeframe and has racked up yardage totals of 77 and 63 in those games with a touchdown in each. It will be hard to sustain that kind of production in such a limited role, but Mack has clearly earned some additional opportunities for what has largely been an inept offensive unit this season. That being said, Mack is not an advisable fantasy starter this week with the Broncos playing a similarly inept and injury-ravaged Rams offense, meaning this should be a low-scoring affair without a negative game script to bolster Mack's projection.
Week 15 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Marlon Mack mixed in behind Latavius Murray in Week 14 for only three carries and two catches on three targets, but he managed 77 total yards and a touchdown on those limited touches thanks to a 66-yard screen pass he took to the house for a score. Mack looks set for some pass catching duties behind Murray in the Denver backfield, but it would be shortsighted to think Mack will continue to score long touchdowns on a regular basis. He is not a legitimate starting option until we see a larger sample of production.
Week 1 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Marlon Mack is a talented runner, and he put together his first 1,000-yard season last year with 1,091 yards on 247 carries. He also scored eight touchdowns and now has 18 over two years as a starter. Mack has also missed six games during that span with injuries and is starting to get an injury-prone label. But the biggest concerns with Mack are his lack of production in the passing game (just 17 targets last year) and the presence of second-round rookie Jonathan Taylor. Mack is in a contract year and could ball out, but he’s more likely to be in a timeshare this season with Taylor, and a timeshare that could get shorter and shorter for him if Taylor looks as dynamic as he did in college. This week, even in a great matchup, think of Mack as a low-end RB3 option in most leagues, with some potential to produce with the touches he gets, but with the risk of losing work to Taylor.
Fantasy Upside
Marlon Mack ran for 1,091 yards and eight touchdowns last season in 14 games. He had 908 yards and nine touchdowns in 12 games in 2018 and has averaged 4.5 yards per carry over the past two years combined. Mack is a hard runner with enough explosiveness to make big plays in the running game. Pro Football Focus had him tied for third in most runs of 20-plus yards in 2019. He’ll be playing in a contract year and is assisted by one of the best offensive lines in football. Justin Edwards ranks the Colts offensive line as fourth-best in the league entering the season.
Fantasy Downside
Mack has a lot going against him. He isn’t very active in the passing game with just 17 targets last season. He has missed games every year he’s been in the league with injury. Most worrisome is the addition of Jonathan Taylor in the second round of the draft, a highly touted, wildly productive back out of Wisconsin who looks like a three-down player. Mack will need to earn every opportunity he gets this season, and his upside is likely limited to a time-share situation with the rookie in the fold.
2020 Bottom Line
With Taylor around and the lack of production in the passing game, it’s hard to put a ton of faith in Mack continue to get enough touches to warrant serious fantasy consideration. As such, his ADP has fallen to the eighth round. That’s pretty good value if he stays in a time share, but probably not worth gambling on when you can get other timeshare backs in that realm with more upside in the passing game such as James White and Ke’Shawn Vaughn. Still, Mack won’t go away without a fight, so there’s some hope that he cashes in one more quality season trying to secure a deal elsewhere in 2021.
Week 17 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Marlon Mack had a nice game against the Panthers last week in a lopsided victory. He had 16 carries and two receptions for 101 total yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. Mack has been mostly steady throughout the season when healthy and eclipsed 1,000 yards for the first time in his career last week.
Mack has a great matchup in the finale. Only the Panthers rank lower in aFPA to opposing running backs this year and the Jaguars look to be disengaged in a lost season. Mack has a high floor with his workload as the main back for the Colts and he should be considered a safe RB2 option to finish out the season, particularly in non-PPR leagues.
Week 16 vs. Carolina Panthers
Marlon Mack struggled along with the rest of the Colts offense last week against the Saints, gaining just 19 yards on 11 carries in a blowout loss. Mack is still the bellcow in Indianapolis, but the team was completely inept against the dominant Saints. That shouldn’t happen every week, and Mack should be a high-floor option for the remainder of the season due to his likely workload. He’s averaged 18 carries per game this season.
The Panthers are dead last in aFPA to opposing running backs this season and just gave up 133 yards and a pair of touchdowns on the ground to Chris Carson a week ago. If Mack gets a full workload and the Colts can stay competitive enough to keep from abandoning the run, he has significant upside in a great matchup. Start him as a borderline RB1 option this week.
Week 15 at New Orleans Saints
Marlon Mack returned from a hand injury last week and found the end zone, though he was limited to just 2.9 yards per carry on 13 rushing attempts. Mack is the unquestioned lead back for the Colts when healthy and the Buccaneers have held some great backs to limited production this season, so fantasy owners shouldn’t worry about the 2.9 average in one game. If he’s healthy, he remains one of the higher-floor options, particularly in standard formats.
This week, Mack faces a Saints defense that ranks eighth in aFPA to opposing running backs, so it won’t be easy for him to produce. Without the benefit of activity in the passing game, Mack shouldn’t be counted on for PPR production in shallow leagues, and we have him ranked as an RB3 option in a tough matchup.
Week 11 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Marlon Mack was a semi-bright spot in a forgettable loss to the Dolphins last week, gaining 82 yards on 19 carries and a reception. Mack has only found the end zone three times this season, but he’s averaging 21.2 touches per game, giving him a high floor every game.
Fantasy owners should have Mack active this week as a fringe RB1 against the Jaguars. It should be a tough, grind-it-out game between two strong rushing attacks and Jacksonville ranks 21st in aFPA to opposing running backs. Mack is a safe option and he should be in all fantasy lineups every week.
Week 10 vs. Miami Dolphins
Marlon Mack had 89 yards on 21 carries against the Steelers last week as the Colts lost a tight game that ultimately came down to a missed field goal at the end. Mack has been pretty steady all year, and while he’s only found the end zone three times this season, he’s averaging 21.25 touches and 93.4 yards per game, giving him a high floor each week as a solid RB2 option.
This week, Mack has RB1 upside against the Dolphins who rank dead last in aFPA to opposing running backs this year. While the Miami offense has shown a little life in recent weeks, making scores less lop-sided, they’re still struggling to compete on defense and have lost key players on both sides of the ball to injuries. Mack is a must-start this week in a great matchup and should be active in all league formats.
Week 9 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Marlon Mack had a nice game against the Broncos last week as the Colts eked out a close win in a low-scoring affair. He finished with 76 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries and he added a 14-yard reception to his totals. Mack has been steady for much of the season, particularly when it comes to workload. He’s had double-digit touches in every game this year, with only one game with less than 18 total touches.
This week, Mack faces a Steelers defense that has actually been pretty stout against the run. They rank fifth in aFPA to opposing running backs and just two weeks ago they held Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler to a combined 32 yards on 13 carries. The Colts should do an effective job keeping the game close, so Mack should have a high enough floor to warrant RB2 consideration in most leagues, but this definitely isn’t the week to expect huge numbers from the Colts’ bell cow.
