JAX WR Zay Jones - Week 16 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 16 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Zay Jones turned eight targets in five grabs for 59 yards in Week 15, scoring 8.4 Half-PPR points along the way. But he also seemed to suffer a hamstring injury late in the game, plunging his availability and effectiveness for Week 16 into doubt.

Even if Jones can play at something approaching functional health, and even with a matchup against the friendliest defense for wide receivers in the league in terms of aFPA, the Jaguars' whole offense takes a massive hit if C.J. Beathard gets the start at quarterback. Jones should probably only be projected for WR4 numbers in Week 16.

Wednesday, December 20, 2023 - 1:32pm
JAX WR Zay Jones - Week 15 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 15 vs. Baltimore Ravens

Zay Jones was grossly ineffective against the Browns last week, turning a team-high 14 targets into five grabs for just 29 yards. Jones managed 5.4 Half-PPR points and was the WR46, although this was an improvement on his seasonal average of WR63 in points per game.

If you have to start Jones in Week 15, the first week of the fantasy playoffs, then you may be trouble. The Ravens rank seventh in aFPA to wide receivers this season, which combined with Jones’s inefficient play makes it hard to project him as anything more than a mid-tier WR4 this week.

Wednesday, December 13, 2023 - 6:53pm
JAX WR Zay Jones - Week 14 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 14 at Cleveland Browns

With Christian Kirk likely to miss some time with a serious core injury, the time is ripe for Zay Jones to return to fantasy productivity. He showed some flashes of this with a five-catch, 78-yard showing against the Bengals last week. Which was nice.

However, with C.J. Beathard running the offense, expecting anything from Zay Jones seems like something of a fool's errand. Even with a middling matchup against the Browns, who rank 15th in aFPA to wide receivers this season. You should probably look elsewhere for fantasy points this week.

Wednesday, December 6, 2023 - 3:59pm
JAX WR Zay Jones - Week 3 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 3 vs Houston Texans

Week 2 was definitely not a game Zay Jones will look back on fondly in years to come. Despite seeing six targets, he failed to secure a single one, amassing zero receiving yards and absolutely no fantasy points.

Jones doesn't have the best matchup this week against a Texans team that has not done too badly against wide receivers so far this season. It's hard to trust him as anything more than a WR4 in Week 3.

Wednesday, September 20, 2023 - 6:19pm
JAX WR Zay Jones - Week 2 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 2 vs Kansas City Chiefs

Zay Jones was, surprisingly for some, the second chair in the Jaguars passing attack in Week 1. He was, like everyone else, behind Calvin Ridley in the pecking order, but he was featured more often than Christian Kirk. Jones drew seven targets to Kirk's three and posted five catches for 55 yards and a touchdown. Jones posted 14.0 Half-PPR points and finished as the WR18 in Week 1.

The prospect of an air show between the Jaguars and the Chiefs is a very real one, and the Chiefs are not a terrifying matchup for wide receivers at the moment based on our numbers. Jones should be in the conversation as a high-end WR3 with WR2 upside.

Wednesday, September 13, 2023 - 12:05pm
JAX WR Zay Jones - Week 1 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 1 at Indianapolis Colts

Zay Jones enjoyed a career season with the Jaguars in 2022, forming an efficient (if unspectacular) wide receiver alliance with Christian Kirk. Jones caught 82 balls for 823 and five touchdowns, highlighted by an 11 catch, 145 yard outing against the Ravens in Week 12. Jones finished as the WR26 in Half PPR formats, averaging 9.8 fantasy points per game.

Jones is more likely than not the WR3 on the Jags after the acquisition of Calvin Ridley, and this role is reflecting in his fantasy projection for Week 1. Last season, the Colts were 10th in aFPA to wide receivers, so this far from easy matchup AND the increased competition for targets should put a serious cap on Jones this week. He’s hard to trust above a WR4 in fantasy.

Friday, September 8, 2023 - 5:28pm
JAX WR Zay Jones - 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook

Fantasy Upside
A one-time high second-round pick for Buffalo who was up-and-down in three seasons each with the Bills and Raiders, Zay Jones proved dependable in his first season in Jacksonville in 2023. Jones set career bests for receptions, targets and yards, while his five touchdown catches were just two shy of his previous high, established in Buffalo in 2018. More than half of those TDs came in a Week 15 overtime win against Dallas, as Jones had eight catches for 109 yards and three scores. It marked his second 100-yard receiving game of the season and also featured his season's longest reception of 59 yards. Jones carried the ball only four times, and not after Week 16. It hardly mattered as Jones' development made him a deep threat for quarterback Trevor Lawrence, putting the Jaguars on track for a run to the AFC South crown and a frenetic wild-card victory against the Los Angeles Chargers. Worth noting: Jones was the WR31 in fantasy points per game last year, settling in as Lawrence's red zone favorite (12th-most red zone targets per Fantasy Pros).

Fantasy Downside
As Fantasy Pros put it, "Jones has an uphill battle this year if he hopes to get close to the 121 targets (18th-best) he saw last year." Indeed, the addition of Calvin Ridley will likely be a limiting factor for all the team's receiving assets.

2023 Bottom Line
While Jones will still be in the top-three rotation at wideout (although one could argue tight end Evan Engram might be ahead of him), it will be hard to view him as anything but a WR4 or WR5 for fantasy purposes this season barring the unforeseen.

Tuesday, August 1, 2023 - 7:40pm
JAX WR Zay Jones - Week 17 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 17 at Houston Texans

Zay Jones had one of his quietest games of the season in Week 16, as he battled a stifling Jets pass defense in addition to bad rain. Jones played 57 snaps, but drew only four targets, catching one for 14 yards. He also carried the ball once for a three-yard loss. His 1.6 Half PPR points were good for WR87 last week.

It's hard to get excited about Jones this week, given the "strengths" of the Jaguars' opponent. The Texans rank second in aFPA to wide receivers while allowing most teams to run all over them. Jones projects as a mid-tier WR3 this week.

Friday, December 30, 2022 - 12:37am
JAX WR Zay Jones - Week 16 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 16 at New York Jets

Zay Jones had himself a day against the Cowboys in Week 15. He saw eight targets and caught six of them for 109 yards, his second 100-yard game of the season. But three of his grabs went for touchdowns, propelling him to 31.9 Half PPR points. No wide receiver scored more in Week 15.

But we should not expect similar results for Jones against the Jets this week. The Jets are the No.1 ranked team in aFPA to wide receivers this season, with only the Broncos allowing fewer receiving yards to wideouts than the Jets in 2022. Look for Jones to feature as a low-end WR2 this week.

Wednesday, December 21, 2022 - 5:19pm
JAX WR Zay Jones - Week 15 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 15 vs. Dallas Cowboys

After a dud in Week 13, Zay Jones bounced back to form nicely against the Titans in Week 14. Jones caught eight of his 12 targets for 77 yards and just his second touchdown of the season on his way to 17.7 Half PPR points. Jones was the WR9 in Week 14.

Jones will look to build on this form against the Cowboys in Week 15. The Cowboys are 18th in aFPA to wide receivers and have given up 14 receiving touchdowns to the position this season. Despite a target share almost on par with Christian Kirk, Jones's role on the Jaguars' offense offers a safe WR3 floor, which is where we project him to be this week.

Thursday, December 15, 2022 - 12:10pm

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