Week 11 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Hayden Hurst caught two passes for 14 yards in an ugly Thursday night game against the Bears last week. Hurst is leading the Carolina tight end group is snaps, but he’s still not eclipsing 60%, as the team uses Tommy Tremble in several formations as well. Hurst has just three games with four or more targets this year and hasn’t found the end zone since Week 1.
This week, Hurst has a decent matchup against a Dallas defense that ranks 20th in aFPA to opposing tight ends. Still, the Panthers have been woeful on offense and it’s hard to buy into any pass-catcher in Carolina not named Thielen. Fantasy managers should be able to find better waiver options than Hurst this week.
Update: Hopefully you weren't counting on Hurst anyway, but it looks like he won't be suiting up for Week 11, so be sure to get him out of your lineup.
Week 5 at Detroit Lions
Hayden Hurst had a great Week 1 and then he’s fizzled since, including a one-catch, seven-yard performance against the Vikings last week. Hurst has some upside this week in a nice matchup against the Lions, who rank 26th in aFPA to opposing tight ends. Still, it’s hard to count on the offensive players in this struggling Carolina offense and fantasy managers should look elsewhere if possible at the tight end position. Hurst can stay on waivers in most leagues.
Week 3 at Seattle Seahawks
Hayden Hurst had a nice Week 1, and then came back to earth last week in a tough matchup against the Saints. Hurst ended up with three catches for 20 yards in another Carolina loss. Hurst gets to play the struggling Seattle defense this week, but with the Panthers looking a bit lost offensively - and now Bryce Young is dealing with an ankle issue - fantasy managers should look elsewhere.
Week 2 vs. New Orleans Saints
Hayden Hurst led the team with seven targets last week, catching five balls for 41 yards and the Panthers’ only touchdown. Fantasy managers have been waiting for Hurst to break out for years now, and there’s hope that getting on page early with rookie Bryce Young might be the change he needs. That said, it’s risky to bank on this offense right now, and the Saints held Tennessee tight ends catchless last week, and were ranked second in aFPA to opposing tight ends last year. Add Hurst in deeper leagues, but keep him on the bench in a tough matchup while we see if his target percentage continues to be high.
Fantasy Upside
Hayden Hurst is coming off a mediocre season with the Bengals. He caught 52 balls for 414 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He also averaged a career-low 8.0 yards per reception. Hurst joins Carolina this season and should have a path to a starting role, or he should at least be the primary receiving tight end, given the blocking prowess of holdovers Ian Thomas and Tommy Tremble. Rookie quarterback Bryce Young was lauded for his efficiency in college, which should translate well for his intermediate targets, and new coach Frank Reich has had success with the tight end position before.
Fantasy Downside
We’ve been hoping for Hurst to break out for years, and it just hasn’t happened. This will now be his fourth team and he’ll be 30 when the season starts. Plus, Tommy Tremble has a chance to take a leap in his third year. Known as a blocker, Tremble is a gifted athlete and showed flashes as a receiver in 2022.
2023 Bottom Line
Hurst is probably worth a gamble as a second tight end or as a periodic streaming option this year, but he’s not likely to move the needle for your fantasy team. He should stay on waivers to open the season in most formats, and we barely have him ranked inside our top-25 tight ends.
Week 17 vs. Buffalo Bills
Hayden Hurst only had two receptions last week for 12 yards. He has shown some TE1 tendencies at times, but not in a consistent manner. For Week 17, he has a very tough matchup against the Bills who are ranked first in the NFL in aFPA to tight ends.
Keep Hurst on the bench as he only ranks as a low-end TE2. The inconsistency packaged with the Bills defense puts him way down in the rankings.
Week 16 at New England Patriots
UPDATE: Hayden Hurst has been ruled out against New England.
Hayden Hurst did not play last week and he is questionable this week against the Patriots. He is nursing a calf injury so even if he suits up, it is unlikely he will be 100% and therefore should remain on the bench for Week 16.
Week 13 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Hayden Hurst had a season-high nine targets that produced six receptions which tied a season-high. His 57 receiving yards was also a season-high. With all these season-highs, you would think Hurst's stock would go up.
The matchup this week is slightly favorable as Kansas City is ranked 20th in aFPA to tight ends. Hurst's numbers have been average all year long but that's not enough to put him in your starting lineup. Keep Hurst on the bench for Week 13.
Week 12 at Tennessee Titans
Hayden Hurst has been quiet in recent weeks. Last Sunday he had only two receptions for 28 yards. He hasn't been quite as targeted like he was earlier in the season plus Ja'Marr Chase is supposed to be back in the lineup.
The matchup is favorable against Tennessee who is ranked 26th in aFPA to tight ends. Hurst ranks as a TE2 for Week 12. He should probably remain on the bench unless you have a format that uses multiple tight ends.
Week 11 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Regular usage with modest productivity has been the norm in recent weeks for Hayden Hurst. Before the bye week, he had five receptions for 35 yards. Those catches are keeping him fantasy relevant and is the reason he is still a consideration each week.
Hurst faces the Steelers who are ranked 13th in aFPA to tight ends. In the first meeting, he had a season-high eight targets but the other numbers were similar to what he normally does. Start Hurst as a low-end TE1 for Week 11 and expect him to earn some fantasy points to help you, especially in a PPR format.
