Week 9 at New England Patriots
Nyheim Hines vulture a touchdown last week against the Commanders, but his usage and production have been lacking all season. Fantasy managers should get a look at this offense with Sam Ehlinger under center for a few weeks before making assumptions about how ancillary pieces like Hines are going to be used, making him way too risky to insert into fantasy lineups. Sit him.
Update: Hines was traded to the Buffalo Bills on Tuesday and will face a vulnerable Packers defense that ranks 19th in aFPA to opposing running backs. While the addition is interesting for his future production - going from the Colts' stagnant offense to Josh Allen and the Bills - it's hard to envision huge production in his first game in a crowded backfield. Take a wait-and-see approach for now, but definitely pick him up in deeper leagues. This hurts James Cook's value significantly.
Week 7 at Tennessee Titans
Nyheim Hines is set to return from injury this week against the Titans’ eighth-ranked defense in aFPA to opposing running backs. Hines is averaging 3.6 receptions per game this year, so he has some very deep PPR-league potential, but his production has been dismal. He’s averaging only 26.4 yards per game and has yet to find the end zone. Keep him on the bench this week, and he’s droppable in most leagues.
Week 5 at Denver Broncos
Nyheim Hines had just two catches last week for three yards. While it’s possible he gets an uptick in touches with Jonathan Taylor nursing an ankle injury, this Colts offense has been mostly bad through four games and until that changes, it’s too risky to bank on Hines in most formats. If you’re in a PPR format, he might be worth a flyer in really deep leagues as a flex option, but generally speaking, this offense is a stay-away outside of Michael Pittman Jr.
Week 4 vs. Tennessee Titans
Nyheim Hines has 17 targets so far this season, so he’s been active in the passing game, but the production just hasn’t been there. He had 54 yards from scrimmage in Week 1, but just 30 and 37 the past two weeks, respectively, and hasn’t found the end zone yet. This week, he has a nice matchup against the Titans, but it’s too risky to have him in lineups in all but the deepest of PPR leagues. Sit him while Matt Ryan continues to get acclimated to the offense.
Week 3 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Nyheim Hines had one carry and four catches for 37 yards last week in a terrible outing for the entire Colts offense. Hines hasn’t lit the world on fire, but he does have 11 targets through two games and he’s been on the field for 29% of the team’s offensive snaps. Against the Chiefs this week, expect the Colts to throw the ball, giving Hines some potential for modest output in PPR formats. Still, this offense is tough to bank on, so fantasy managers should view Hines as a risky option. We have him ranked outside of flex range this week.
Week 2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Nyheim Hines had just four yards on three carries against the Texans last week, but he added 50 yards on six receptions. He caught all of his targets and looked more like his 2020 self than the version we saw in 2021 with Carson Wentz behind center.
The Jaguars allowed Antonio Gibson to catch seven balls for 72 yards last week, so there’s upside for Hines to get another healthy dose of targets. He’s a high-floor flex option in PPR formats, but loses value in standard leagues.
Week 1 at Houston Texans
Nyheim Hines struggled last year with Carson Wentz at quarterback, catching 40 balls for 310 yards. He added 276 yards on the ground, but was limited to just three total touchdowns after scoring seven in 2020. Hines caught 63 balls that year with Philip Rivers under center, so the addition of Matt Ryan should help get back to viable PPR flex territory.
The Texans ranked 29th in aFPA to opposing running backs last season, so the upside is there for Hines to start off the season with a bang. Still, a cautious approach is best with Hines, who was limited in his role a season ago. With his return to prominence in the passing game more projection than certainty at this point, it’s best to take a wait-and-see approach. Hines might squeeze in some flex value in full-PPR leagues, but best to get a game under him first.
2022 Fantasy Upside
Nyheim Hines had a down year with Carson Wentz behind center in 2021, but with Matt Ryan now in town, there’s significant upside for him to return to his 2020 numbers. Hines caught 63 balls in 2020, finishing with 862 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns, landing him at RB20 in half-PPR formats. Ryan made excellent use of his running backs in Atlanta – i.e. Cordarrelle Patterson, Devonta Freeman – so it seems likely Hines will return to his previous form. This is just his age-26 season and the team just signed him to a three-year, $18.6 million-dollar contract last September, per OverTheCap.com.
2022 Fantasy Downside
Hines plummeted to just 40 catches, 586 scrimmage yards, and three touchdowns last season and he’s never been super consistent. He’s not going to get the short-yardage work on a team with Jonathan Taylor, so the three touchdowns last year are probably more likely than the seven he had in 2020. He’s also a role-player and is not likely to land lead-back duties in the event of a Taylor injury, so the upside is capped.
2022 Bottom Line
Hines is a value in the late-11th round of fantasy drafts, particularly in PPR formats. Expect numbers somewhere in between his 2020 and 2021 totals. For what it’s worth, Hines has been on an “every other year” trajectory, with 63-44-63-40 receptions over his first four years in the league. That means he’s due for 63 catches again.
Week 17 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Nyheim Hines had three carries and a reception for 18 yards. He’s simply not getting enough work to be fantasy viable. While it’ll be interesting to see if he gets an increased number of check-downs from a rookie quarterback, it’s too risky to warrant serious fantasy consideration. Leave him on waivers.
Week 15 vs. New England Patriots
Nyheim Hines had a quality outing – by his standards – against the Texans before the bye last week. He caught three balls and had three carries for 56 yards from scrimmage. He’s had so few games with even that much usage this year, it was refreshing to see him active in the offense. Still, with that being a “good” game at this juncture, fantasy managers should leave Hines on the bench, and likely on waivers, in most formats. He’s simply not getting the work – 6.4 touches per game – to warrant serious consideration.
