FanDuel Week 1 DFS Pricing: 3 Stud Picks That Stand Out
Which NFL stars are being underpriced by FanDuel in Week 1? One way to look at it is by comparing Week 1 salary to last season's FanDuel points per game, which I've done for every player that is priced $7,000+ (full table appears at the end).
Note: FanDuel and DraftKings Week 1 projections are up in the Lineup Generator! Sign up for a 4for4 DFS Subscription to gain access now.
Most Underpriced QB: Aaron Rodgers $8,300 vs. SEA
Despite the Seahawks finishing ranked No. 4 versus FanDuel QBs in 2016, our positional matchup strength projections—last season's fantasy points allowed adjusted for strength of schedule (aFPA), then further adjusted based on offseason activity—rates Seattle a less daunting No. 9 versus QBs.
The projections may be onto something: Aaron Rodgers threw 3 touchdowns and scored 21.24 FanDuel points against Seattle last season. If you sort by ceiling projections in our DFS Lineup Generator, you'll see that Rodgers is projected for the second-highest ceiling of any player on the slate in Week 1.
Most Underpriced RB: Le'Veon Bell $9,300 @ CLE
In Week 11 last season, LeVeon Bell smoked the Browns for 30.1 FanDuel points. Players tend to be priced according to ceiling, and our DFS Player Pricing Report tells us Bell costs an astronomical 15.5 percent of the cap, so we know his ceiling is high—but how safe is it to pay up for Bell?
Our floor projections indicate Bell is the best-projected floor play relative to salary of any RB on the slate. The difference between Bell and the No. 2 RB in terms of projected floor value is larger than that of any other position. In fact, Bell has a higher floor-point projection in Week 1 than any other player at any position, period.
Shifting gears, Bell is obviously a great tournament play on his own, but like RBs, defenses flourish as large favorites. Pittsburgh is -9 against Cleveland, meaning you should consider stacking Bell with the Steelers defense ($4,800).
Sure enough, our Stack Value Reports have Bell-Steelers rated as the slate's No. 1 RB-DEF stack. The Bell-Steelers stack has a greater advantage over No. 2 RB-DEF stack than any other stack on the slate.
Note: FanDuel's pricing is such that QBs average more points per dollar than non-QBs, causing overall (multi-positional) projected points per $1,000 "Value" rankings to look askew at times. For example, while Bell is projected as the No. 1 RB in points-per-$1,000 "Value", he falls behind a cluster of QBs in the overall rankings. As a solution, I have created a new value metric which adjusts for positional expectation. This new value metric also adjusts for salary-based expectation, i.e., low-salaried players need to score more points per $1,000 to "hit value" than high-salaried players. Using this new metric, Bell would shoot up to No. 1 in the overall rankings as well, which is more appropriate. Essentially, this new metric reflects the logic the Lineup Generator has always used to generate the most optimal lineups, and will allow for a quick and seamless manual comparison of players at different positions that previously could only be done using the power of the Lineup Generator. Starting in 2017, the new value metric will replace the traditional points per $1,000 "Value" metric, although the latter will still be displayed and accessible. The new value metric will go live sometime during the preseason.
Most Underpriced WR: Jordy Nelson $7,700 vs. SEA
Jordy Nelson's price is down because of the perception that Seattle has a lockdown defense, but our positional matchup strength projections have Seattle rated 27th versus WRs coming into 2017 after finishing a mediocre 14th in 2016. Nelson could be the low-owned play that ends up winning someone a tournament.
But what about Richard Sherman's coverage? 4for4 has partnered with PlayerProfiler to bring our subscribers invaluable advanced stats and charting metrics, and the data shows Sherman isn't impossible to beat: Among 101 cornerbacks to draw 40+ targets in 2016, Sherman ranked just No. 56 in yards per target allowed (7.47).
In fact, in Week 14 of last season, Nelson produced 19.1 FanDuel points against Seattle, his fifth-highest total of the season. If you're a 4for4 DFS subscriber, be sure to check our Nelson analysis closer to Week 1—that's when 4for4 will be publishing ownership projections, as well as a new metric I've created called GPP Leverage Score, which quantifies a player's tournament viability based on value relative to salary and projected ownership.
|Pos||Player||FD Pts/G||GP||Salary $||Team||Opp||Pts/$1,000|