Take a Hard Pass on Cole Kmet in 2020
Like a moth to a flame, the Chicago Bears couldn’t resist a shiny tight end to add to their vast collection. Local Illinois raised and former Notre Dame star Cole Kmet was drafted with the No. 43 overall pick to become the 10th player in the tight end room for Chicago.
While he may prove to be a big-time talent down the road, Kmet’s 2020 fantasy outlook for redraft and best ball formats is pretty minimal. Below are some arguments for why he should be left either in the draft pool or for your zealous league mates to take him a year or two early.
Rookie Tight Ends Don’t Make Great Fantasy Bedfellows
As a true junior tight end for the Fighting Irish, Kmet posted a 43/515/6 receiving line in 2019 after just 176 scoreless yards in his first two seasons. He had a great combine performance, finishing top-five in the 40-yard dash (4.70), the vertical jump (37 inches) and the broad jump (123 inches).
However, none of that really matters.
First-year tight ends rarely succeed in the NFL for fantasy purposes even in the perfect situation, and Kmet’s is very far from ideal but we’ll get to that a bit later.
Not one rookie tight end has eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards since Mike Ditka did it in 1961. Jeremy Shockey was the closest in the modern era with 894 yards in 2002. Here’s a look at the real-life and fantasy production from some of the most notable and successful rookie tight ends over the past decade.
| Player | Year | G | Receiving Yds | TDs | Total Half-PPR Pts | Half-PPR Pts/G | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 2017 | 15 | 722 | 6 | 141.6 | 9.4 | TE4 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 2010 | 14 | 563 | 6 | 119.5 | 8.5 | TE14 |
| Noah Fant | 2019 | 16 | 562 | 3 | 91.0 | 5.7 | TE16 |
| Mark Andrews | 2018 | 16 | 552 | 3 | 90.2 | 5.6 | TE17 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 2010 | 16 | 546 | 10 | 133.6 | 8.3 | TE9 |
| George Kittle | 2017 | 15 | 515 | 2 | 85.0 | 5.7 | TE20 |
| Chris Herndon | 2018 | 16 | 502 | 4 | 93.7 | 5.9 | TE15 |
| Jordan Reed | 2013 | 9 | 499 | 3 | 92.2 | 10.2 | TE21 |
| Hunter Henry | 2016 | 15 | 478 | 8 | 112.2 | 7.5 | TE16 |
| Zach Ertz | 2013 | 16 | 469 | 4 | 88.9 | 5.6 | TE22 |
| Tyler Eifert | 2013 | 15 | 445 | 2 | 76.0 | 5.1 | TE27 |
| O.J. Howard | 2017 | 14 | 432 | 6 | 88.2 | 6.3 | TE19 |
| Dawson Knox | 2019 | 15 | 388 | 2 | 65.7 | 4.4 | TE30 |
| David Njoku | 2017 | 16 | 386 | 4 | 78.7 | 4.9 | TE21 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 2019 | 12 | 367 | 2 | 64.7 | 5.4 | TE31 |
| Jimmy Graham | 2010 | 15 | 356 | 5 | 81.4 | 5.4 | TE25 |
| Dallas Goedert | 2018 | 16 | 334 | 4 | 73.9 | 4.6 | TE20 |
| Ian Thomas | 2018 | 16 | 333 | 2 | 63.3 | 4.2 | TE25 |
| Irv Smith Jr. | 2019 | 16 | 311 | 2 | 61.1 | 3.8 | TE35 |
| Austin Hooper | 2016 | 14 | 271 | 3 | 54.6 | 3.9 | TE37 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2011 | 15 | 249 | 3 | 55.9 | 3.7 | TE34 |
As we can see from the past 10 seasons, only two first-year tight ends have cracked starting status, indicating just how difficult it is to produce at the position out of the gate. At just 21-years old with minimal pass-catching experience, Kmet will probably need some time to adjust to a three-down role, specifically as a receiver in the NFL.
Quarterback Woes
To put it mildly, the Bears situation at quarterback is not optimal for the fantasy success of very many players in their offense. Mitchell Trubisky was brutal last season, ending as QB26 in fantasy points. Chicago was the 25th overall passing offense in 2019, and their highest-scoring tight end was one Jesper Horsted who ended the season as TE72 with 16.7 total half-PPR points.
Trubisky’s ineptitude caused the Bears to overpay in a trade for NFL journeyman Nick Foles, and they have since alleged that fair competition between the two for the starting role will take place.
Among the 30 quarterbacks who attempted at least 100 passes in 2018 and 2019, the two QBs that saw by far the largest year-over-year drop in Total QBR: Nick Foles (-31.8) and Mitchell Trubisky (-31.5). pic.twitter.com/J2wARwdmO4
— trey wingo (@wingoz) March 19, 2020
Despite a magical post-season run with the Eagles, Foles really hasn’t been great in the regular season, either. Even during his time as the starter for Philly, tight end Zach Ertz’s production took a hit when Foles was on the field. Despite similar volume (9.6 targets from Carson Wentz and 9.3 from Foles), Ertz put up just 55.9 yards on 6.3 catches with Foles, compared to 7.5 grabs for 79.5 yards when in tandem with Wentz. That being said, Foles is still the better option and should end up as the starter on Week 1.
Hearty Competition
Bears GM Ryan Pace loves to collect tight ends, and not particularly great ones at that. Kmet could break the cycle, but it most likely won’t happen this season.
Chicago signed Jimmy Graham to a two-year, $16 million deal and also acquired former Chiefs and Browns tight end Demetrius Harris this offseason to add to their double-digit depth chart at the position. Adam Shaheen is also in the conversation at the position as he's shown flashes of decency in his three years in the league. At best, Kmet could be the third option in the Bears passing game after Allen Robinson and Graham, but he’ll still have to compete with Anthony Miller and even Tarik Cohen for targets.
This is all in an offense that posted the eighth-fewest passing yards per game in 2019—not exactly the best environment for fantasy production. Kmet, who has been compared to both Kyle Rudolph and Gronk, has the opportunity to learn from a 10-year NFL veteran in Graham which is solid for his future, but not great for his fantasy outlook in 2020.
Bottom Line
Cole Kmet being drafted by his hometown team was certainly a feel-good story of this year’s draft, but his immediate fantasy outlook isn’t the brightest.
- Rookie tight ends rarely break out in their first season in the league and Kmet is up against a tough fight to do so.
- For any amount of fantasy success, he’ll need someone dependable tossing him the ball, and Chicago’s quarterback situation in 2020 is mediocre at best.
- Jimmy Graham’s $16 million dollar deal suggests that he’s the starter and Kmet will have to fight for targets in a weak passing offense.
- Let someone else gamble on the rookie in both redraft and best ball this season. Kmet is ranked as TE51 in 4for4’s rankings and is being drafted in the 14th round in MFL redraft leagues.
