Streaming Defenses: Week 6 Targets
As discussed previously, we are rolling out a new-and-improved model this season for projecting fantasy defenses. This model focuses on the most predictable elements of defense scoring: points allowed, sacks and interceptions. To project points in each of those areas, we rely on the Vegas lines, quarterback history of interceptions and the offensive and defense history of producing sacks. Below, we will look at what those elements say for Week 6.
Our top streaming pick was the Eagles, who crushed this week. With six sacks, two interceptions and only six points allowed, they put up over 20 points from the predictable elements of defensive scoring. They also added over 10 additional points with two defensive touchdowns, pushing their point total over 30 in typical scoring systems.
Our next pick was the Titans defense, who faced the Bills. While we were not expecting Josh Allen to play, it would not have significantly changed the prediction: Barkley has a slightly higher interception rate but Allen has a significantly higher sack rate. In any case, the Titans slightly outperformed our projection, putting up four sacks, one interception and allowing only 14 points. While they did not match the gaudy numbers of the Eagles, this is a good result for a defense.
While they were bailed out in the final scoring by a defensive touchdown and three fumble recoveries, the Panthers underperformed our predictions in the predictable elements with only two sacks, no interceptions and, most surprisingly, 27 points allowed. Given that this is the third week in a row that the defensive facing the Jaguars has underperformed, it is time to include better numbers for Gardner Minshew in the model. While he has exactly matched our initial prediction of 2.4 sacks per game, he has only thrown a single interception, so I am dropping his predicted interception rate down significantly.
As in past weeks, of our three picks, one over-performed, one hit expectation and one under-performed. Also, as before, it was the team with the lowest scoring prediction from the model that under-performed. So once again, if multiple of our streaming targets are available, it paid off to take the one with the highest prediction from our model.
Week 6 Projections
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