FantasyDraft Week 6 Value Plays
Each week, l offer my favorite plays for the Sunday slate on FantasyDraft. 4for4’s Lineup Generator allows users to quickly pinpoint the top values at each position and I will expand on how each player is best deployed, whether it’s by game type, as part of a stack, or simply a core value across all formats. Note that FantasyDraft is a full-PPR site with yardage bonuses but the roster requires only two wide receivers and implements two flex positions.
This contest sets up to be one of the most pass-heavy games of the week with both offenses ranked in the top 12 in passing rate in neutral game script and both defenses ranked in the bottom five in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks (aFPA). Projected point totals reflect that sentiment with an over/under currently at 51 points and a spread of just 2.5 in favor of Atlanta. Ryan has exceeded 300 yards in every game this season and is one of two quarterbacks that has accounted for at least 80% of his team’s total yards and over 80% of their offensive touchdowns. Priced as the QB6 on the slate, there’s almost no reason to pay up at the position in cash games this week.
Gardner Minshew ($10,800) vs. Saints
Paying down at quarterback is always a consideration and Minshew is the salary-saver of the week. The Jaguars quarterback just posted his first 300-yard game of the season and he’s thrown multiple touchdowns in four games this year. With two games over 40 yards on the ground, the Swaguar has added floor potential. What’s especially intriguing about this passing game is the matchups for Jacksonville’s two best pass-catchers, D.J. Chark and Dede Westbrook. Chark’s 14.5-yard average depth of target is the 11th-highest at his position and only two teams have allowed more completions on passes 15-plus yards downfield than the Saints. Westbrook will benefit against a defense that allows the third-most fantasy points per game to receivers lined up in the slot.
Dalvin Cook ($15,900) vs. Eagles
With Christian McCaffrey playing in the early London game, Cook is the workhorse to jam into lineups this week. He ranks fourth in touches per game, averaging nearly 23 per week and should see favorable game script as a home favorite. Even if game flow doesn’t go as planned, Cook is averaging nearly five targets per game, which aids his floor. Philadelphia is a pass funnel defense but Minnesota is a run-committed team and efficiency through the air results in running back upside since they should see increased scoring opportunities.
Chris Carson ($10,900) @ Browns
After a lull in fantasy production in Weeks 2 and 3, Carson got back to his bell-cow way the last couple of games, with at least 26 touches in each and over 100 yards both games. Despite his massive workload, the Seahawks back is priced as the RB13 on the slate. Seattle is favored against a Browns defense that was just gashed by the 49ers run game to the tune of 280 total yards.
DeAndre Hopkins ($14,000) @ Chiefs
Having exposure to this game is almost a must this week as it carries a total of 55 points and both teams are projected to score over 25 points. Hopkins tops this week’s value report at his position. Though his fantasy numbers have been down, his usage is where you would expect it to be—Nuk ranks seventh in target share and he’s accounted for over a third of Houston’s air yards. In a potential shootout, he should see double-digit targets. While Hopkins only lines up in the slot on fewer than a third of his snaps, 46% of his targets have come while lined up inside. That could result in a huge game when he’s matched up against slot cornerback Kendall Fuller, who allows the most fantasy points per target among Week 6 starters.
Courtland Sutton ($9,300) vs. Titans
Sutton has emerged as Joe Flacco’s go-to receiver, averaging nearly eight targets per game and scoring at least 13.7 FantasyDraft points in three of four games. Even with WR1-type numbers, Sutton is still priced outside the top 30 at his position this week. Titans cornerbacks Malcolm Butler and Adoree’ Jackson both rank in the bottom 16 in fantasy points per target allowed, so Sutton should have success no matter where he lines up this week.
George Kittle ($9,500) @ Rams
Only one tight end has seen a higher target share than Kittle this year and as the primary pass-catcher in San Francisco, you want to roster him against a Rams secondary that has struggled in coverage. When adjusted for strength of schedule, the Rams rank 17th against tight ends and 21st against wide receivers. Kittle will line up off the line a fair amount, giving him ample opportunity to exploit all of the Rams’ weaknesses.
Austin Hooper ($9,000) @ Cardinals
Hooper is averaging more targets per game than all but three tight ends and he has a dream matchup this week. As mentioned in the Ryan blurb, this should be one of the most pass-heavy games of the week and Arizona’s biggest weakness is against tight ends. No team has allowed more yards or touchdowns to the position. If this game shoots out as expected, Hooper has massive upside, accounting for a quarter of the Falcons' red-zone targets.
Defense and Special Teams
This is the ugliest game on the slate and the range of outcomes is massive—both defenses are atrocious but the offenses are equally bad. Washington is favored in this game and they should be able to take advantage of an offensive line that ranks near the bottom of the league in pass protection and put pressure on Josh Rosen, who has one of the highest interception rates in the league. The chance to pay down at defense against this woeful Miami team is too good to pass up.
If we look at season-long numbers, not much stands out in terms of matchup for the Chargers but they will face either Mason Rudolph coming off of a terrifying concussion or the Steelers' third quarterback of the season, Devlin Hodges. Vegas doesn’t seem too concerned about who will play under center for Pittsburgh as the Chargers are favored by six and the bet remains on the board even with the uncertainty about who will start.